OUT TO LUNCH
Casting an eye over the foreign media, as we news junkies are wont to do, one gets the distinct impression that there is an international commonality of complaints when it comes to the handling of COVID-19. Chief amongst these is that the governments don’t know what they’re doing which is fair comment. Unless you’ve managed a major viral pandemic before the chances of getting everything right on this one are slim indeed.
When China eventually fessed up and admitted to the existence of a new and particularly virulent strain of flu they decided to put the whole of Wuhan city in lockdown. As the virus rapidly spread throughout the world in early 2020 to other countries their governments did precisely the same. As deaths mounted in Italy and France and lockdowns became stricter other European countries joined the global panic and enforced lockdowns of their own, some more repressive than others.
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The great authority on viral pandemics in the UK, Prof Neil Ferguson of Imperial College, London predicted in March that the coronavirus could easily claim 500 000 lives in the UK. That would be enough to spook any government. As it turns out Ferguson, who was busy flattening the curves of his married girlfriend while demanding that everybody else observe social distancing, was horribly wrong (as it turns out he has been in the past) and the death rate, while high, has been nowhere near this prediction.
So if governments are being accused of not knowing what they are doing it’s almost certainly because those who are advising them can’t agree on the right strategy. Trusting the science is turning out to be unreliable because for every well qualified and respected scientist who suggests that the only way to beat this is to lock people up in their homes for three months there are others who confidently claim that lockdown makes absolutely no difference to the transmission of the disease and people should be allowed to go about their daily lives if they take sensible precautions. No surprise then that we are all confused.