Mandela's passing changes South African politics

There was much to digest from the 12 days of mourning, memorials and eventual funeral of the great Nelson Mandela. Just as in his lifetime, Mandela has again in death left yet another significant mark on the South African political fabric - and all politicians will need to scramble to deal with the fall-out.

Firstly, South Africans almost universally venerated Madiba. In fact, such was the acclaim and dissection of the man that it constantly reminded us of what was missing in our current crop of political leadership. In the immediate hours after his passing, it was already clear that the country was making a distinction between the ANC of Mandela and that of Jacob Zuma and this was manifest throughout the following ten days.

Secondly, everyone claimed Mandela. From the struggle stalwarts to the ‘born-frees' to the White community who for so long only saw him as a terrorist and continually voted for the National Party and thereby supported his extended incarceration. "Madiba" was elevated to virtual sainthood with some mourners even comparing him to Jesus Christ. While not wishing to belittle the larger-than-life analogies, Mandela has now assumed a strange super-human status forged over the ten-day mourning period by a remarkable confluence and consensus of South Africans.

Thirdly, what was expected to have been a deep and heartfelt tribute to Mandela almost was derailed by the current realities of South Africa. The jeering directed at President Zuma clearly was not only the low point of the week but potentially also the low point of the entire Zuma Presidency - notwithstanding on-going controversies relating to Nkandla and the arms deal saga.

The initially comical, then sad and then sinister use of a schizophrenic deaf interpreter who had allegedly faced a murder charge a decade ago symbolically represented more than just a gross error of judgement. Not only did only Thamsanqa Jantjie insult the deaf, he also permanently spoiled all visuals from the memorial for eternity. Critically, his flawed selection and appointment smacked of the mediocrity that has entered and become endemic in so much of public service delivery in the country.

Fourthly, given these domestic events, South Africa returned to the global spotlight. Although Marikana had pushed us back into the headlines, it felt like it was 1994 all over again. Blanked news coverage from all major global satellite networks used every single anchor and expert to dissect not only the Nelson Mandela's life story - but also that of the country and specifically its future prospects.

Most foreign media still seemed to be of the erroneous opinion that Mandela was the glue holding the country together and his passing represented something of a watershed towards a more populist future dominated by renewed racial strife. The old fears and media inaccuracies clearly were not far from the surface.

Fifthly, South Africans should be forgiven for having lived through a very intense week. Just as Whites often fail to realize the effects of Apartheid on their emotional psyche, so South Africans might only in hindsight come to realize what this week did to them.

The raw emotions on the streets coupled with a new energy for political renewal clashed this last week. It reflected both the hope and widely held disappointment of South Africans today. It was almost as if Mandela's passing had rebooted South Africa out of a malaise of lethargy as the country increasingly struggled with cronyism, crime, leadership inadequacies and bureaucratic mismanagement. In a remarkable week, Mandela's death galvanized a debate within the country almost as vibrant as when he was alive.

South Africans have expressed their grief and sorrow not only by shedding tears. They have become a lot more vocal in the last week. In some ways, grief does often accompany feelings of anger and perhaps this is what has been felt around the nation. This comes at a very sensitive time politically - barely 6 months before the 2014 elections.

So, as the election campaign approaches it may well be a very different voter who goes to the polls. In some ways, Mandela's passing has re-invigorated the ANC. It has reminded the feuding factions of the unity of the past and has served to re-educate a generation of younger voters about the struggle history. For many, this week has been an extended history lesson and the reminders this brings are likely to enhance the ANC as a political force.

But, remembering the ANC of Mandela does juxtapose the current deficiencies. An increasingly unpopular President now has to fight for votes he might've taken for granted only a few weeks ago.

"Brand ANC" may well have been enhanced this last week. But "Brand Zuma" is on the back foot. The party of liberation could indeed capitalize on the sympathy vote but what it gains here may be lost over disdain for the persona of the President himself.

Politically therefore, Mandela's passing makes it more difficult for all political parties. Opposition parties like the DA have simply got lost in the blanket coverage of Mandela's ANC and their defeat of white domination. The EFF have also seen the focus shift from their brand of more radical politics to Mandela's reconciliatory approach. Restoring the opposition's raison d'etre (or more colloquially ‘mojo') might be that bit tougher in the coming months.

For the ANC, it's equally tough. ANC voters increasingly have a dilemma in still identifying with the ANC brand but disliking its current leadership. And, this dislike has been crudely yet bravely legitimized in public at the most solemn and politically sensitive time - at the FNB Stadium.

So, political boundaries have changed. New precedents have been set requiring new strategies. Voter confusion can have one very negative consequence though - a dissatisfaction so deep that a stay-away or abstention from voting becomes the significant outcome. And that would be a real travesty to the legacy of Mandela. Nelson Mandela will still loom large in the political battles yet to come.

Daniel Silke is an Independent Political Analyst & Keynote Speaker. He is Director of the Political Futures Consultancy based in Cape Town and is author of the acclaimed book "Tracking the Future" published by Tafelberg. He can be followed on Twitter @DanielSilke. His website is www.danielsilke.com .

This article first appeared on www.fin24.com

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