The deadline given by the regional community in Maputo passed on Friday without a single decision regarding the issues that are still outstanding being met. The political agreements were signed by the three Parties to the Zimbabwe crisis in September 2007. The reason was quite clear - Zanu and the Mutambara group simply do not know what to do. If they agree to do what the region wants, they are dead in the water.
But they signed the deal, they have nowhere to go and there have been intense discussions behind closed doors for weeks now. What to do? When MDC resolved to suspend all contact with Zanu PF in the Cabinet and Council of Ministers, they reacted with glee and started talking about 'caretaker Ministers' and going it alone. Mr. Mugabe made a speech in the Midlands where he said that the Zimbabwe dollar would be back before the end of the year. Rumours of the Reserve Bank printing new currency were rife.
But they had underestimated the sophistication of the MDC decision and the reaction of regional leaders. They also misread the full implications of the SADC decision to divert the management of the Zimbabwe crisis to the Troika. By doing so regional leaders reduced the status of Mr. Mugabe from Head of State (at the SADC summit) to President of Zanu PF on a par with Mr. Tsvangirai and Mr. Mutambara at the meetings of the Troika.
This past week an aircraft arrived at Harare airport with tons of new local currency onboard. They tried to keep it secret but without success and we were called by people to say the consignment was at the airport. When this news found its way through the corridors in Harare speculation was widespread. The most frequently asked question was 'why'?
Printing a new currency simply did not make sense, who would accept the new currency? It would mean a rapid and complete collapse of the already fragile economy - empty shops and no fuel. It would run the risk of a national revolt and it was doubted if the army and the police would accept the new currency. A violent reaction was probable; certainly the people did not want to see a new local currency so soon after the 2008 collapse.
There was only one logical explanation - Zanu was contemplating a UDI from the region rather than go along with what they regard as political suicide. This made complete sense - they could arrest the MDC leadership, appoint 'caretaker Ministers' and simply go it alone. Issue the new currency and exile Mr. Tsvangirai. That is exactly what Smith had done in 1965 in reaction to what the Rhodesian leadership regarded as unreasonable political demands by the international community.