It is not too late for the ANC

24 August 2022

It is January 1992 and Bill Clinton’s campaign team is going through a very rough patch during the Democratic primaries for the candidacy for US president in the elections later that year.

Clinton’s campaign has been riddled with scandal, moving from crisis to crisis to the point that even his team, who consider him to be a once-in-a-generation political talent (I am a huge fan of Slick Willy Clinton, pun intended, too, just by the way and consider him to be the best politician I have seen in my lifetime), are now beginning to doubt whether his candidacy will succeed, a state of affairs much worse than the fact that the polls were showing that his popularity was waning due to the scandal-ridden nature of his candidacy.

All of this was happening just before the all-important New Hampshire primary and for all intents and purposes it looked like Clinton’s candidacy was over. Clinton, with his charisma and great political instincts, actually rode the storm and continued to campaign vigorously in New Hampshire and to the surprise of many, including his team, he actually came second in the New Hampshire primary, giving a second wind to his team and a second chance to his campaign, leading to him being famously known as the “Comeback Kid.”

Clinton had announced his candidacy for the US presidency in October 1991, a year in which the USA had been engaged in the Gulf War, the success of which had given the incumbent president George H. Bush an approval rating of 89%, the highest ever approval rating for a US president at that time, funnily enough only eclipsed by his son, George W. Bush, who became president much later and had an approval rating of 90% post the 9/11 terrorist attacks (maybe there is something to be learnt there about the merits of war for politicians, but that is a topic for another day methinks).

So, Clinton announced his candidacy during a period when the incumbent was really popular according to the polls and the chances of success for the Democrats were seemingly minimal, but by the beginning of the 1992 election year, when Clinton’s campaign was still wobbling and dealing with scandal after scandal, George H. Bush’s approval rating had dropped to 46%, dropping to an all-time low of 29% in July of that same year. In just over a year, the Bush presidency had gone from the highest ever approval rating recorded by Gallup polling to one of the lowest ever that Gallup had measured, proving once again the old adage about how in politics, a lot can change in a noticeably short time span.

In fact, Bush’s final approval rating before the election that year was 34%, before he went on to lose to Clinton, who got 43% of the popular vote to Bush’s 37.5%, of course taking into account that the US system works on the electoral college system as opposed to winning the popular vote.

I was reminded of all this as I was busy reflecting on the latest Ipsos poll here in South Africa, which was aimed at getting a sense of the political sentiment of the South African public at the moment, without in any way, by their own admission, trying to predict what would happen in future, with the 2024 national and provincial elections in mind.

The Ipsos survey asked a whole range of questions, which produced some remarkably interesting results, but for the purposes of this particular piece, we will focus on the main question and its outcomes. When asked which party they would vote for, if there was an election tomorrow, 42% of respondents said ANC, 11% said DA, 9% said EFF and 3% said Action SA. Of course stats and polling results can be interpreted in various ways, but what really stood out for me was that, despite loadshedding, the difficulties experienced during the Covid-19 induced lockdown, the ignominy of the Zondo Commission, high unemployment and the rising cost of living, a stagnant economy and the July 2021 unrest, if there was to be an election tomorrow, almost four times as many people are likely to vote for the ANC as the nearest opposition party, based on the survey.

So, despite all its obvious failings and despite the popular narrative (whether true or not I leave up to you to decide), being that the ANC is a corrupt, tired, outdated party that has failed dismally on governance and service delivery and is destroying the country, the party would get almost four times as many votes as its nearest opposition party, if there was to be an election tomorrow.

Depending on how you look at it, this shows that it is not all doom and glom for the liberation movement as yet, it is not too late for the party to get its act together and win back the rest of the electorate that it has lost over the years. Of course, these are not grounds for arrogance, given the diminishing electoral margins, but there is hope yet for the people’s movement if it can get its renewal project off the ground and improve its governance and service delivery record. A lot can change within a short space of time in politics and with 2024 in mind, this needs to be the attitude of the ANC.

Of course, some media houses and opposition parties focussed on the fact that the ANC is going to become a sub 50% party nationally for the first time in the post 94 dispensation, if the results of the survey hold(that is another way to look at the results of course) and the fact that the ANC is losing support en masse, which I am not suggesting the ANC should ignore, but given all of the mishaps and faux pas over the past few years, the fact that the ANC would get 42% of the vote if there was an election tomorrow, according to this survey, with the nearest opposition party being at a distant 11%, shows that the party is still by far the most popular political party in SA and that is the outlook from which it should work in implementing its renewal agenda and formulating a strategy for the 2024 elections and beyond.

One can also highlight the fact that if the results of this survey hold, the main opposition party itself, the DA, would have lost much ground when one compares the 11% to what they attained in the 2019 elections. Despite its many flaws in government, South African society is not necessarily rejecting the ANC, but what it is looking for is a better ANC in order to build a better South Africa.

The challenge for opposition parties, if one is to look at the results of this survey, is that they still have not convinced the majority of South African society that they are a viable alternative to ANC rule and of course the collapse of governance and service delivery that has often been witnessed at local government level in the municipalities where opposition parties have clubbed together to take the ANC out of power, does the opposition parties no favours in the eyes of the South African public. The ANCs biggest challenge is motivating and mobilising its base to come out to vote, this means the party must address the disillusionment and sense of hopelessness amongst its core voters.

There is a wider disillusionment with mainstream politics and politicians in South Africa, which is part of a broader global trend over the past few years and this trend has of course led to the rise in popularity of ultra-right and ultra-left political parties when one looks at trends globally, but contrary to the popular narrative, there is much at stake for all political parties in SA, not just the ANC as we move towards the 2024 elections and beyond, even as we acknowledge that polling itself is not an exact science and of course polling results can be interpreted in various ways, but polling does help with both the science and art of electoral politics.

A lot can still change over the next couple of years which could turn the tide in favour of the ANC (both internal and external factors from a party perspective) because, as Vladimir Ilyich once famously said (I had to throw this in there just to agitate those who consider me to be an incorrigible commie), “there are decades when nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen, or to quote from the completely opposite side of the ideological divide (this is to agitate the Marxists and leftist types who consider me to be a “confused mix masala” ideologically), as former US Secretary of Defence, Donald Rumsfeld once infamously said, “there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know; but there are also unknown unknowns-the ones we do not know we do not know.” 

We do not know for sure whether the ANC will drop below 50% in 2024, even though it may be most likely and probable as things stand, hence we must aggressively focus on renewal of the party, changing perceptions of it and its governance record with the public and rescuing brand ANC from the pits, where it currently finds itself.

To be successful and turn things around, the ANC must focus on known knowns and leave the unknown unknowns to take care of themselves because as much as it may be seemingly popular sentiment, if one is to believe the mainstream, it is not a given that the ANC will be below 50% in 2024 and most likely out of government because as the Ipsos survey has shown, it is not too late for the ANC.

Mugabe Ratshikuni works for the Gauteng provincial government; He is an activist with a passion for social justice and transformation. He is branch Treasurer for the ANC Ward 115, Florence Mophosho branch, Greater Johannesburg Region. He writes here in his personal capacity.