The political scientist Maurice Duverger noted: "In theory, the principle of election should prevent the formation of an oligarchy; in fact, it seems rather to favour it. The masses are naturally suspicious of new faces." This tendency was turned on its head at the ANC's national conference in Polokwane, as numerous familiar faces were ejected from the party leadership in favour of relatively unknown ones.

Yet, hard as it is to believe, the defeat of the Mbeki camp at Polokwane was even more extensive than many people assume. This emerges from a comparison of the results of the elections for the National Executive Committee (NEC) with the lists circulated by the Mbeki and Zuma camps before the voting.

As reported previously, in the elections for each of the top six positions the delegates split 60/40 in favour of the Zuma-ticket. What is less well known is that the elections for the other eighty members of the party's NEC saw an almost equally decisive defeat for the Mbeki camp.

Before the conference 158 individuals were nominated for positions on the NEC. The names of the five unsuccessful candidates for the top six positions were added to the NEC ballot paper, as was that of Tokyo Sexwale who withdrew his candidacy for ANC national chairman at conference. There were also at least seven successful nominations from the floor of the conference. However, one of these nominees, the unionist Randall Howard, was subsequently disqualified as he had only joined the ANC five months before. The Gauteng Premier, Sam Shilowa, also withdrew his nomination before voting began.

There were two lists informally circulated among delegates before the NEC vote. Curiously, the 66-person Mbeki-list was not updated to include the five nominees who had failed to make it into the top six.

The Zuma list had 80 names on it (79, excluding Howard.) As Carol Paton noted at the time it excluded all the government's economic ministers, including Finance Minister, Trevor Manuel, and his deputy, Jabu Moleketi.

75 out of the individuals on the Zuma-list won places on the 80 member NEC. There were 13 individuals who appeared on both lists - including Winnie Mandela, Jeremy Cronin, and Jeff Radebe - and most of these individuals did well in the voting as a result. Such individuals took the top six positions in the vote, and eight out of the top ten positions.

There were a number of Mbeki loyalists returned to the NEC, including Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, Brigitte Mabandla, Manto Tshabala-Msimang, and Nosiviwe Mapisa Nqakula. But, ironically, what secured their re-election was their inclusion on the Zuma (as well as the Mbeki) list.

Thus, there were only 5 individuals solely on the Mbeki-list who managed to make it onto the NEC. These were Cyril Ramaphosa, Trevor Manuel, Naledi Pandor, Sbu Ndebele, and Joel Netshitenzhe (the Mbeki camp's nominee for ANC chairman).

Those senior ANC leaders who had come out openly in favour of a third term for Mbeki in the dying weeks of the campaign were severely punished in the voting. Essop Pahad, Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka, Sydney Mufamadi, and Terror Lekota, all failed to make it back onto that body.

The expansion of the NEC from 60 to 80 saved only three serving NEC members: Nosiviwe Mapisa-Nqakula (68), Netshitenzhe (73), and Naledi Pandor (74).

Before the 2002 national conference there were 71 nominees for 60 elected positions on the NEC. The increase in the number of nominees to over 160 at Polokwane saw more dispersed voting patterns.

Winnie Mandela, came first in the voting for the NEC. But she only received 72.9% of votes in comparison to the 79.7% she received previously (and which had won her 6th position.) Only 26 of the 80 candidates received more than 50% of votes from the 3900 voting delegates, as compared to 52 out of 60 last time. Jeremy Cronin (at 5) and Jesse Duarte (at 6) were two of only a handful of candidates to be re-elected to the NEC with an increased share of the vote.

The shattering defeat of the Mbeki camp at Polokwane, and after, ends any real prospect of a counter-offensive by this grouping within the NEC. This solves one problem for the new ANC leadership, but it may cause others. The way a ‘broad church' movement functions is that while different tendencies may not identify with all of the leadership, they should be able to identify with some of it.

Moreover, even if they are currently on the margins there should be a reasonable prospect of a change in leadership in the foreseeable future - which would allow a return to influence of their tendency.

The danger of such an overwhelming victory for the Zuma camp is that it will both weaken the sense of identification of the losing faction with the new ANC, while doing away with any real incentive for the winning faction to accommodate the losers.

When it came to electing 20 members from its ranks onto the National Working Committee earlier this month, the NEC failed to select a single individual who did not appear on the Zuma-list. Only three individuals - Pallo Jordan, Jessie Duarte, and Jeff Radebe - had appeared on both lists.

Colour code: Those only on the Zuma-list are in red; those only on the Mbeki-list are in blue; and, those on both lists are in teal.