OPINION

Off with our heads

How decisive was the defeat of the Mbeki camp at Polokwane?

The political scientist Maurice Duverger noted: "In theory, the principle of election should prevent the formation of an oligarchy; in fact, it seems rather to favour it. The masses are naturally suspicious of new faces." This tendency was turned on its head at the ANC's national conference in Polokwane, as numerous familiar faces were ejected from the party leadership in favour of relatively unknown ones.

Yet, hard as it is to believe, the defeat of the Mbeki camp at Polokwane was even more extensive than many people assume. This emerges from a comparison of the results of the elections for the National Executive Committee (NEC) with the lists circulated by the Mbeki and Zuma camps before the voting.

As reported previously, in the elections for each of the top six positions the delegates split 60/40 in favour of the Zuma-ticket. What is less well known is that the elections for the other eighty members of the party's NEC saw an almost equally decisive defeat for the Mbeki camp.

Before the conference 158 individuals were nominated for positions on the NEC. The names of the five unsuccessful candidates for the top six positions were added to the NEC ballot paper, as was that of Tokyo Sexwale who withdrew his candidacy for ANC national chairman at conference. There were also at least seven successful nominations from the floor of the conference. However, one of these nominees, the unionist Randall Howard, was subsequently disqualified as he had only joined the ANC five months before. The Gauteng Premier, Sam Shilowa, also withdrew his nomination before voting began.

There were two lists informally circulated among delegates before the NEC vote. Curiously, the 66-person Mbeki-list was not updated to include the five nominees who had failed to make it into the top six.

The Zuma list had 80 names on it (79, excluding Howard.) As Carol Paton noted at the time it excluded all the government's economic ministers, including Finance Minister, Trevor Manuel, and his deputy, Jabu Moleketi.

75 out of the individuals on the Zuma-list won places on the 80 member NEC. There were 13 individuals who appeared on both lists - including Winnie Mandela, Jeremy Cronin, and Jeff Radebe - and most of these individuals did well in the voting as a result. Such individuals took the top six positions in the vote, and eight out of the top ten positions.

There were a number of Mbeki loyalists returned to the NEC, including Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, Brigitte Mabandla, Manto Tshabala-Msimang, and Nosiviwe Mapisa Nqakula. But, ironically, what secured their re-election was their inclusion on the Zuma (as well as the Mbeki) list.

Thus, there were only 5 individuals solely on the Mbeki-list who managed to make it onto the NEC. These were Cyril Ramaphosa, Trevor Manuel, Naledi Pandor, Sbu Ndebele, and Joel Netshitenzhe (the Mbeki camp's nominee for ANC chairman).

Those senior ANC leaders who had come out openly in favour of a third term for Mbeki in the dying weeks of the campaign were severely punished in the voting. Essop Pahad, Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka, Sydney Mufamadi, and Terror Lekota, all failed to make it back onto that body.

The expansion of the NEC from 60 to 80 saved only three serving NEC members: Nosiviwe Mapisa-Nqakula (68), Netshitenzhe (73), and Naledi Pandor (74).

Before the 2002 national conference there were 71 nominees for 60 elected positions on the NEC. The increase in the number of nominees to over 160 at Polokwane saw more dispersed voting patterns.

Winnie Mandela, came first in the voting for the NEC. But she only received 72.9% of votes in comparison to the 79.7% she received previously (and which had won her 6th position.) Only 26 of the 80 candidates received more than 50% of votes from the 3900 voting delegates, as compared to 52 out of 60 last time. Jeremy Cronin (at 5) and Jesse Duarte (at 6) were two of only a handful of candidates to be re-elected to the NEC with an increased share of the vote.

The shattering defeat of the Mbeki camp at Polokwane, and after, ends any real prospect of a counter-offensive by this grouping within the NEC. This solves one problem for the new ANC leadership, but it may cause others. The way a ‘broad church' movement functions is that while different tendencies may not identify with all of the leadership, they should be able to identify with some of it.

Moreover, even if they are currently on the margins there should be a reasonable prospect of a change in leadership in the foreseeable future - which would allow a return to influence of their tendency.

The danger of such an overwhelming victory for the Zuma camp is that it will both weaken the sense of identification of the losing faction with the new ANC, while doing away with any real incentive for the winning faction to accommodate the losers.

When it came to electing 20 members from its ranks onto the National Working Committee earlier this month, the NEC failed to select a single individual who did not appear on the Zuma-list. Only three individuals - Pallo Jordan, Jessie Duarte, and Jeff Radebe - had appeared on both lists.

Results for elections onto the ANC NEC at Polokwane, December 2007

 

 

2007 conference placing

(2002 conference)

Name

Sex

Nomination

Position

Votes

% of 3900

NWC

Position

Votes

% of 3397

Jacob Zuma

M

Yes

President

2329

59.7%

Y

DP

 

 

Kgalema Motlanthe

M

Yes

DP

2346

60.2%

Y

SG

 

 

Baleka Mbete

F

DSG/Floor

Chairman

2326

59.6%

Y

48

1958

57.6%

Gwede Mantashe

M

Yes

SG

2378

61.0%

Y

 

 

 

Thandi Modise

F

NEC/Floor

DSG

2304

59.1%

Y

31

2241

66.0%

Matthews Phosa

M

Yes

TG

2328

59.7%

Y

49

1799

53.0%

Winnie Mandela

F

Y

1

2845

72.9%

 

6

2708

79.7%

Jeff Radebe

M

Y

2

2716

69.6%

Y

19

2542

74.8%

Zola Skweyiya

M

Y

3

2700

69.2%

 

3

2675

78.7%

Pallo Jordan

M

Y

4

2645

67.8%

Y

4

2662

78.4%

Jeremy Cronin

M

Y

5

2519

64.6%

 

45

2004

59.0%

Jesse Duarte

F

Y

6

2448

62.8%

Y

58

1420

41.8%

Lindiwe Sisulu

F

Y

7

2384

61.1%

Y

13

2614

77.0%

Sankie Mthembi-Mahanyele

F

Y

8

2291

58.7%

 

DSG

 

 

Brigitte Mabandla

F

Y

9

2235

57.3%

 

27

2358

69.4%

Tokyo Sexwale

M

Official

10

2198

56.4%

 

 

 

 

Blade Nzimande

M

Y

11

2157

55.3%

Y

24

2411

71.0%

Makhenkesi Stofile

M

Y

12

2151

55.2%

Y

 

 

 

Malusi Gigaba

M

Y

13

2144

55.0%

 

39

2132

62.8%

Ace Magashule

M

Y

14

2121

54.4%

 

 

 

 

Fikile Mbalula

M

Y

15

2116

54.3%

Y

 

 

 

Valli Moosa

M

Y

16

2210

56.7%

 

24

2423

71.3%

Febe Potgieter-Gqubule

F

Y

17

2091

53.6%

 

 

 

 

Collins Chabane

M

Y

18

2043

52.4%

Y

60

1417

41.7%

Max Sisulu

M

Y

19

2041

52.3%

Y

33

2236

65.8%

Ngoako Ramatlhodi

M

Y

20

2034

52.2%

 

40

2129

62.7%

Tony Yengeni

M

Y

21

2032

52.1%

Y

43

2047

60.3%

Siphiwe Nyanda

M

Y

22

2005

51.4%

Y

 

 

 

Derek Hanekom

M

Y

23

1996

51.2%

 

29

2287

67.3%

Zweli Mkhize

M

Y

24

1976

50.7%

 

55

1581

46.5%

Ebrahim Ebrahim

M

Y

25

1964

50.4%

 

49

1772

52.2%

Bheki Cele

M

Y

26

1950

50.0%

 

 

 

 

Nomaindia Mfeketo

F

Y

27

1943

49.8%

Y

 

 

 

Billy Masetlha

M

Y

28

1937

49.7%

 

 

 

 

Bathabile Dlamini

F

Y

29

1933

49.6%

Y

 

 

 

Cyril Ramaphosa

M

Y

30

1910

49.0%

 

2

2778

81.8%

Lumka Yengeni

F

Floor

31

1907

48.9%

 

 

 

 

Angie Motshekga

F

Y

32

1906

48.9%

Y

 

 

 

Nozizwe Madlala-Routledge

F

Y

33

1905

48.8%

 

 

 

 

Enoch Godongwana

M

Floor

34

1891

48.5%

 

54

1591

46.8%

Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma

F

Official

35

1885

48.3%

 

3

2763

81.3%

Susan Shabangu

F

Y

36

1775

45.5%

Y

59

1419

41.8%

Nomvula Mokonyane

F

Y

37

1756

45.0%

 

 

 

 

Dina Pule

F

Y

38

1730

44.4%

Y

 

 

 

Ruth Bhengu

F

Y

39

1729

44.3%

 

 

 

 

Joe Phaahla

M

Y

40

1726

44.3%

 

 

 

 

Nyami Booi

M

Y

41

1709

43.8%

 

 

 

 

Joyce Mabhudafasi

F

Y

42

1698

43.5%

 

 

 

 

Lindiwe Zulu

F

Y

43

1682

43.1%

 

 

 

 

Thandi Tobias

F

Y

44

1675

42.9%

 

 

 

 

Janet Love

F

Y

45

1670

42.8%

 

 

 

 

Lyndall Shope-Mafole

F

Floor

46

1642

42.1%

 

 

 

 

Ayanda Dlodlo

F

Y

47

1641

42.1%

 

 

 

 

Nathi Mthethwa

M

Y

48

1629

41.8%

Y

 

 

 

Lynne Brown

F

Y

49

1623

41.6%

 

 

 

 

Ncumisa Kondlo

F

Y

50

1619

41.5%

Y

 

 

 

Thenjiwe Mtintso

F

Y

51

1616

41.4%

 

16

2372

69.8%

Fikile Xasa

M

Floor

52

1615

41.4%

 

 

 

 

Mathole Motshekga

M

Y

53

1613

41.4%

 

 

 

 

Sue van der Merwe

F

Y

54

1593

40.8%

 

 

 

 

Manto Tshabalala-Msimang

F

Y

55

1591

40.8%

 

15

2589

76.2%

Aaron Motsoaledi

M

Y

56

1591

40.8%

 

 

 

 

Trevor Manuel

M

Y

57

1590

40.8%

 

1

2800

82.4%

Jackson Mthembu

M

Y

58

1590

40.8%

 

 

 

 

Sisisi Tolashe

F

Y

59

1574

40.4%

 

 

 

 

David Mabusa

M

Y

60

1572

40.3%

 

 

 

 

Sicelo Shiceka

M

Y

61

1532

39.3%

 

 

 

 

Zoleka Capa Langa

F

Y

62

1506

38.6%

 

 

 

 

Joyce Mashamba

F

Y

63

1497

38.4%

 

 

 

 

Sibongile Manana

F

Y

64

1496

38.4%

 

 

 

 

Hazel Jenkins

F

Y

65

1496

38.4%

 

 

 

 

Thaba Mufamadi

M

Y

66

1496

38.4%

 

 

 

 

Charlotte Lobe

F

Y

67

1494

38.3%

 

 

 

 

Nosiviwe Mapisa-Nqakula

F

Y

68

1490

38.2%

 

37

2157

63.5%

Phumulo Masualle

M

Y

69

1484

38.1%

 

 

 

 

Joyce Moloi-Moropa

F

Floor

70

1470

37.7%

 

 

 

 

Playfair Morule

M

Y

71

1468

37.6%

 

 

 

 

Ndleleni Duma

M

Floor

72

1447

37.1%

 

 

 

 

Joel Netshitenzhe

M

Official

73

1437

36.8%

 

36

2170

63.9%

Naledi Pandor

F

Y

74

1431

36.7%

 

56

1579

46.5%

Sibusiso Ndebele

M

Y

75

1427

36.6%

 

 

 

 

Dikeledi Magadzi

F

Y

76

1424

36.5%

 

 

 

 

Nosipho Ntwanambi

F

Y

77

1403

36.0%

 

 

 

 

Tina Joemat-Petterson

F

Y

78

1369

35.1%

Y

 

 

 

Noluthando Mayende-Sibiya

F

Y

79

1345

34.5%

 

 

 

 

Maite Nkoana-Mashabane

F

Y

80

1337

34.3%

Y

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Colour code: Those only on the Zuma-list are in red; those only on the Mbeki-list are in blue; and, those on both lists are in teal.