A wonderful wedding does not ensure a wonderful marriage. Rather, sometimes when ‘the thrill is gone’ pretences are projected ‘for the sake of the children.’ The ANC seems intent on disavowing much of our constitution. Those being most grievously betrayed were those “born free.”

Functioning families and societies prioritise the next generation’s peaceful prosperity.

We place great reliance on a fraying constitution while an obscene level of entrenched youth unemployment invites cascading social upheaval.

Young democracies are inherently vulnerable to patronage. Such vulnerabilities are greatly compounded by resource wealth, a lack of competitive elections and racial or tribal conflicts.

SA’s 1990s political transition was fortified by importing the elements of a modern constitution and then modifying them for our circumstances. We needed to similarly import and tweak the policies of successful emerging economies. That project never gained traction. Instead, the ANC exploited racial inequities to camouflage its rolling out a massive patronage network.

Other countries go to great lengths to avoid our outlandish level of entrenched youth unemployment because it becomes so socially and economically destabilising. Conversely, ANC leaders expect to stay in power indefinitely by having a huge portion of the population dependent on their running a government which doles out various sized financial packets.

State of emergency

ANC leaders keep probing the public’s tolerance of authoritarian measures. Might declaring a state of disaster due to floods, a pandemic, or its own mismanagement of state owned enterprises serve as preparation for declaring a state of emergency and then diluting or “suspending” constitutional niceties?

Deputy president Paul Mashatile no doubt expressed what many in the ANC believe when he said, "Democracy means majority rule." "When the ANC believes its course is correct, it will use its majority to push those positions…" "I think that is how democracy works: the majority must have its way."

Mashatile and his close colleagues don’t seem to want a modern constitutional democracy with checks and balances alongside minority protections and accountability. They appear to prefer the authoritarianism of ‘might makes right’.

Mashitile seems likely to become our next president and no one is more strategically positioned to replace him as deputy president than Julius Malema. To assess the ANC’s commitment to purging corruption and jailing kingpins, little speculation is required. Our finance minister’s desire to cloak Eskom’s widespread corruption in darkness speaks volumes as does the meagre follow-up to the Zondo commission.

If the EFF is supported by only 5.1% of next year’s voters and the ANC comes in at 45%, that is a vastly better outcome for Malema than 10% for the EFF and a portion near 50% for the ANC. There are many factors and prospective outcomes, but Malema is well-positioned to become very influential.

Would a government led by Mashatile and Malema jail many senior comrades? Could it survive legitimate elections in 2029? Alternatively, how hard can it be for a ruling coalition which combines massive patronage and a propensity for violence to rig elections - particularly with ultra-elevated youth unemployment making it easy to spark unrest?

Youth unemployment crisis

There are no likely scenarios where our youth unemployment crisis isn’t far worse by 2029. The economy will continue to grow more slowly than the working age population. Worse still, most of our young adults who have never been employed will become, in effect, unemployable. Employers will choose from among the millions of unemployed who are either younger or experienced.

By 2029, the ANC leadership will be highly fearful of eviction from the Union Buildings and of subsequent prosecutions. If the ANC’s leaders don’t believe the constitution is sacrosanct - and they don’t - then it is unrealistic to presume we will have legitimate elections in 2029.

What does the lack of prosecutions for the July 2021 looting and killing tell us? It is not difficult to create high-volume social upheaval when most young adults are unemployed and losing hope.

The restriction of civil liberties due to the pandemic in early 2020 was initially well received by the public. A fearful populace can quickly become receptive toward authoritarian initiatives.

As the ANC is seen to be dismantling the constitution, many western voices will become ever more critical. Does this explain the ANC’s decidedly pro-Russia and pro-China posture relative to Ukraine and more broadly? Such a shift cannot be justified on economic grounds.

Our commodity exports to China are ineffective at advancing development or job creation. Conversely, they provide an ideal source of funding for patronage. Meanwhile, the ANC’s support for Russia evidences a blatant disregard for the country’s millions of unemployed young adults.

Investment-led growth

Private sector leaders have sought to align interests with the ANC by supporting investment-led growth. This marriage counselling type of compromise seems practical but it has remarkably little potential to reduce youth unemployment for those who have already been born.

If our marriage contract, that is, the constitution, is to be preserved, what must be done? To avoid constitutional downgrades, such as rigged elections, we must prioritise the next generation. Such progress cannot ensure fidelity to our constitutional principles. Yet failing to make such progress would invariably provoke unaffordable economic, political and social damage.

Jobs

Their undermining the constitution won’t change the fact that both the ANC and the EFF are extremely vulnerable on the issue of greatest importance to a majority of young adults: jobs. Besides, protecting a marriage, or a constitution, is less important than positioning the next generation to develop its potential.

The ANC is betting that it can buy the support of the millions who are young and unemployed with meagre grant payments. This strategy’s long-term prospects are horrific but it could serve ANC interests in the near- and medium-term. NB: This path is already dreadfully disadvantageous for South Africans not well-placed within the ANC’s patronage network.

That the ANC’s leaders have little regard for the nation’s long-term prospects is evidenced by their indifference to the youth unemployment crisis. Yet high youth unemployment immediately harms private sector interests and lower-income households with negative compounding effects. Our national dialogue grossly under appreciates this.

From the perspective of unemployed young adults (most of the next generation), SA's politics are about the interest of ANC elites and the economically advantaged private sector interests. This explains why the voting apathy of our unemployed young adults is rational.

The ANC offers them pittances. Opposition parties and business leaders focus on how to grow the economy, but it would take roughly twenty years for their plans to trigger a high portion of school leavers finding employment with prospects. By then, the backlog of the long-term unemployed will have been too large and they will have been unemployed too long. Given the parameters of our national discourse, a massive portion of our adult population is destined to be permanently marginalised. Fixing Eskom is child's play by comparison.

Investment-led growth is attractive to both groups of elites. Yet it offers nearly nothing to our millions of economically marginalised, would-be voters - who could also become looters or revolutionaries.

We mustn’t give up on our constitution. But having a plan for the next generation is both necessary to preserve it and the paramount objective.