Our national attention is, naturally enough, focused on the 29 May election and the various outcomes and coalitions that might ensue. It is generally accepted that this may be the most important election since 1994 - and that it might have a decisive impact on the fate of South Africa for the next two decades.
This is all very true - but we must remember that the future of the country will be determined not only by political developments in South Africa but also by events unfolding on the global stage. This is as it has always been: most of the major turning points in our history have had their origins in great world developments.
We were deeply affected by European voyages of discovery in the 17th and 18th centuries; by the Napoleonic Wars and British imperialism in the 19th century; by the First and Second World Wars; by the Great Depression; by the decolonization of Africa, the Cold War and the fall of the Berlin Wall in the 20th century.
This will continue to be the case - now and into the future. The trouble is that the international scene has not been so volatile or dangerous since the 1930s. Not since then (with the exception of the Cuban missile crisis) has the possibility of war between great powers looked so ominous.
Wars occur according to the assessment - or miss-assessment - by contesting powers of the will, resources, unity, competence and intentions of their opponents. The US and Europe have not, since the 1930s, looked so lacking in will; so divided and so incompetent as they do now.
Earlier this month JPMorgan CEO, Jamie Dimon warned that the wars in the Ukraine and Gaza could further disrupt energy and food markets, migration and military and economic relationships. He was also deeply concerned about the profound political divisions within the United States.