It could have all been so different. South Africans could’ve woken up to a new President of the ANC and the end of the Jacob Zuma era. Business sentiment would’ve lifted. The Rand would strengthen. The ratings agencies would circle just a little less. South Africans might just begin to have a little spring in their step. And, the ANC would have a new leader who could begin the long and arduous process of reclaiming credibility and respect from a frustrated and disappointed electorate.
But this is the stuff of fantasy – the reality as we know it, is otherwise.
And indeed, there was little surprise in the NEC’s decision to keep Jacob Zuma in place. With the composition of the body carefully constructed over many years to protect its President, it was hardly likely that there would be sufficient critical mass to depose him. That there was a heated internal debate – despite the overdose of spin from Gwede Mantashe – is in itself remarkable but clearly short of any ability to exact change.
There were just too many factors to prevent the ANC walking the long road to Zuma freedom this week. For one, the President remains a venerated liberation hero despite the controversies that have tarnished this record. To throw him to the proverbial wolves with 783 fraud and corruption charges hanging over his head was always the stuff of fantasy.
The ANC and Zuma clearly wish to kick-for-touch for as long as possible using the delaying tactics of legal contestation to avoid any harsh penalty imposed on the President. Although it is unclear just how President Zuma might escape charges sticking (if found guilty by a court), a more complex option of a presidential pardon may still need to be hammered out. For this, the ANC needs time. And it needs to make sure that any successor to Zuma is reasonably compliant should the need arise. Given that it may be more than Jacob Zuma within the NEC that are ethically compromised, the end to the Zuma era becomes more complex and tougher to resolve in the short-term. Strike one for any recall.
Secondly, the ANC is deeply factionalised. Yes, some divisions are personality based. But more importantly, the party is ideologically all over the place. There is no cohesive binding factor at all – but for a continued ability to retain power and extract rent in the process. And even this is on the wane. The last thing the ANC would want is a heavy-handed and forced recall of Zuma akin to that of Thabo Mbeki. Such a shock to the system would undermine the already fragile party cohesion and could tear it apart in ways that would make the end of the Mbeki era look like a Sunday school picnic. A back-to-back recall for two successive Presidents was therefore something to avoid. Strike two for any recall.