The state we are in is perilous, socially, economically, and politically. Several years ago the National Development Plan warned of the destabilising consequences of churning out more and more people with degrees but few job prospects. Even before the recent cabinet changes there was no sign that the government had any serious intention to deal with unemployment, which has more than doubled in numbers since the African National Congress (ANC) came to power.
Everyone is now wondering what is meant by "radical economic transformation". Having frightened all the horses by his initial comments when he was appointed, the new finance minister seems to be avoiding the phrase in favour of "inclusive growth". Mr Cyril Ramaphosa says they are the same thing. Radical economic transformation could of course mean adopting policies to push our economic growth rate up to 6%, or 7%, or 8%, but there is little sign that such policies are on the agenda. In practice, "radical economic transformation" is simply a new term for the long-established policy of bringing about a national democratic revolution.
This means racial preferencing, redistribution of income and assets, and capture of all "centres of power". This is not a "big-bang" revolution from below, but a programme of transformation implemented incrementally from above through legislation and bureaucratic power – just as the National Party (NP) implemented its apartheid system. The ultimate objective is a socialist state which promotes African nationalism. Scrutiny of the Statute Book shows that the ANC has gone quite far in achieving these objectives. Most commentators ignore them or play them down. If they occasionally report bits of them, they don't connect all the dots.
I am reminded of how Stalin refused to believe all the intelligence that Hitler would invade Russia in June 1941. Similarly, British and American generals ignored all the warnings of Hitler's last great counter-attack in the Battle of the Bulge in December 1944. Perhaps the explanation is simple: people resist believing anything that does not fit their paradigms. But the lesson is clear: unless more attention is paid to what the ruling party's overriding economic agenda is, efforts to counter the further implementation of destructive policies will not be very successful.
The president of this country is a sinister figure, full of menace. For a start, even though he enjoys VIP protection he seems to have his own private army. What is it for? To intimidate some of the top guns at Luthuli House? To what other purposes might it be put? It would be prudent to assume that, having captured the state's security agencies and the prosecution service, Mr Zuma will in due course move in on the Independent Electoral Commission, the Judicial Service Commission, and the Constitutional Court. It would also be prudent to assume that even if Mr Zuma or the ANC were to be voted out of power, they might not go quietly.
It would be wise to remember various other things too. One is that many of those who would like to get rid of Mr Zuma, would like also to get rid of what they call "white monopoly capital". The ruling party and its communist and trade union allies contain many such people. So do universities and non-governmental organisations.