Most sane South Africans breathed a sigh of relief when by the narrowest of margins Cyril Ramaphosa squeaked through the door into the Presidency's antechamber. But few are under any illusions.
To start with the South African socio-economic fabric is too friable to sustain any Utopian visions of radical redemption. The spiralling problems of urbanisation, rural poverty and isolation, crime, violence, economic stasis, inadequate education, multi-dimensional inequality and chronically high unemployment are too advanced to be easily reversed. Ramaphosa does not have the reputation of a visionary (which is not necessarily an entirely bad thing) and additionally he bears the burden of the current ANC's factionalised and corrupt culture.
Even if he grasps the nettle of a radical transformation of the ANC into a modern technocratic, democratic party attuned to the needs of all South African citizens, especially those in whose name it claims to speak, he will be opposed by a substantial portion of his own party for whom such a political environment would be anathema.
Furthermore, a wired world ensures we are subject to the passions and currents sweeping the rest of the planet however relevant or irrelevant they may be to the South African context. When one sees the toll ideological polarisation and media partisanship is taking on stable and prosperous Western democracies, it is fair to wonder how we will withstand its centrifugal force. We already see its impact in the Universities and in public rhetoric and it will complicate our political discourse for the foreseeable future.
Under circumstances of severe inequality and scarcity we encounter the Hobbesian reality of a low-trust, insecure society at every stop street or traffic light, in the high walls and electrified fencing of the wealthier suburbs, in the form of a burgeoning security industry (one of the largest in the world on a per capita basis), in the pervasive reckless driving and other forms of anti-social behaviour including theft, vandalism, rape and murder. This is happening to a variable extent in all our communities, the rich and desperately poor alike. Corporate indifference and chicanery is part of the same behavioural complex. Such self-sustaining emotional and behavioural spirals are not easily broken.
It is with this background in mind that I consider briefly what the next 5 years may hold for South Africa and the role of the DA in a hopeful but realistic programme of national renewal.