This coming Wednesday, 28 August 2024, the residents of Ward 92 in Pretoria will have the opportunity to vote in a by-election to elect a new ward councillor to represent them in the City of Tshwane Council. A vacancy arose in Ward 92 after the incumbent DA councillor, Leanne de Jager, was elected to the Gauteng Provincial Legislature in the election held on 29 May 2024.

Ward by-elections happen regularly across South Africa and almost always they are fairly forgettable events. But the impending by-election in Ward 92 is different, for its outcome could have a seminal impact not only on the capital city but on the future of all of South Africa.

A capital city on a knife’s edge

To understand why the Ward 92 by-election is so significant, it is necessary to understand the precise balance of power in council. Following the results of the local government election in November 2021, the 214 seats were divided amongst political parties in the following manner:

The Mayor of the City of Tshwane is elected by council and can be removed at any time via a motion of no confidence. Virtually every decision of significance in the municipality including appointing the City Manager and other senior officials, passing the annual budget, disposing of property, raising loans etc requires a resolution to be passed by council. In short, if you have a majority you can govern. Without it, you are – at best – in office but not in power and will quickly find yourself in control of nothing whilst being blamed for everything.

And so, a great deal turns on the outcome of this by-election. It is no exaggeration to say that a single seat changing hands could turn the whole city. And, when it comes to Ward 92, a couple of votes one way or the other could decide the outcome.

Blue vs Red vs Green

Ward 92 is unusual in two respects. Firstly, it is one of the very few wards in the City of Tshwane which is genuinely a competitive contest. And, secondly, it is one of the only places where the EFF has a realistic shot at winning. As is shown in the table below, in 2021 the DA came first.

But in the recent national and provincial elections held less than three months ago, the EFF demonstrated that it has significantly grown its support in this part of the city, displacing the DA as the leading party.

Ambassadorial mansions and student flats

What gives Ward 92 this unique electoral makeup? The answer lies both in its geography and in its demography. The ward is located in the heart of Pretoria, just east of the central business district and slightly north of Sunnyside, Hatfield, Hillcrest and Brooklyn.

It resembles a trapezoid in shape, stretching from Arcadia in the west to Colbyn in the east. The Union Buildings are located in the north-western corner whilst Bryntirion – the official estate where the President and government ministers are housed – runs along its northern border. Stanza Bopape, Pretorius and Park Streets run parallel to one another connected longitudinally by Wessels, Johann, Farenden, Eastwood, Orient, Hill, Festival and Hilda Streets. It is along these leafy roads and avenues that you will find numerous embassies and ambassadorial residences including those belonging to the United States, United Kingdom, France, India, China, Indonesia and Thailand.

How does the EFF do so well in such a well-off suburb? Firstly, the occupants of many of the grand homes are foreign diplomats and they obviously don’t vote in South African elections. But the main reason lies in the location of the University of Pretoria and other tertiary education institutions or – more specifically – where the students of those institutions live.

A fascinating feature of South African electoral data lies in just how well the EFF does in voting districts where students are clustered. For example, in Cape Town the EFF won 34% at Observatory Junior School and 43% at Mowbray Town Hall in 2021, coming first in both voting districts. In Johannesburg, the EFF won an extraordinary 64% at the Wits University Old Mutual Hall in Parktown. Pretoria is no exception to this trend: the EFF’s University of Pretoria Facebook page has over 15,000 followers.

The main campus of the University of Pretoria is located in Hatfield just south-east of Ward 92. In fact, University Road forms the south-eastern border of the ward, separating Loftus Versfeld rugby stadium and Pretoria High School for Girls (which are both inside Ward 92) from the University of Pretoria campus and Pretoria Boys High School (which are just outside of Ward 92).

According to those who know the area well, the fringe of the central business district in the western part of the ward contains large blocks of flats which are popular with students. Several old age homes have also been converted into student housing and so what were once buildings filled with solidly DA voters are now buildings filled with solidly EFF voters. The University of Pretoria’s third quarter is currently underway and so I expect that the students will be in the ward when the by-election takes place. This will be a significant advantage for the EFF.

As ever, Ward 92 has seen its fair share of dirty tricks over the past month. On Saturday, 27 July 2024, a City of Tshwane vehicle driven by a municipal employee was seen delivering an ANC gazebo to the area. Furthermore, the DA alleges that over 600 people on the voters’ roll may not be South African citizens or may not have submitted a valid residential address to the Electoral Commission. This matter has formed the subject of an official complaint which was submitted by the party.

Local trends

Despite the EFF’s strong growth, there are three good reasons for the DA to be optimistic.

Firstly, as with any tight by-election, a crucial factor involves which parties are on the ballot and which parties have chosen not to participate. Wednesday’s by-election will be contested by four major parties: the DA, the ANC, the EFF and MK as well as by two micro-parties: the Bolshevik Party of South Africa and the Organic Humanity Movement.

This is the best possible scenario for the DA, as it will be able to consolidate support behind its name and will not shed precious votes to Action SA, the FF+ or the ACDP. It will be very pleased that the African nationalist vote will be split between the ANC, EFF and MK. I also suspect that whatever votes the Bolshevik Party of South Africa wins will not come at the expense of the DA.

Secondly, another crucial factor relates to differential turnout. If the DA achieves levels of turnout which it usually receives in national elections (i.e. 1,843 votes in Ward 92 in 2024) then it will likely triumph provided that the ANC and EFF perform as if it were a local election (i.e. 1,010 votes and 688 votes, respectively, in Ward 92 in 2021). The DA has put in a massive campaigning effort over the past two months, whilst Floyd Shivambu’s recent departure from the EFF to MK won’t help his former party’s prospects.

Finally, there is the actual state of the ward. Driving through Colbyn and Sunnyside recently, I was struck by how impressive the street lighting was. Service delivery also seems to be good: the streets are clean, refuse bins are collected and trees are neatly trimmed.

Whatever the case, I think it is likely that we are heading for a nail-biting three-way split on Wednesday night, with only a handful of votes separating the DA, EFF and ANC.

One miracle at a time

Defeat for the DA in Ward 92 will not necessarily be fatal for the multiparty coalition in Tshwane. It will still hold a majority of 107-106 in council, a majority that will almost certainly increase to 108-106 later this year after another by-election is held – this time in the ultra-safe DA seat of Ward 84.

Nevertheless, this is an uncomfortably tight margin especially considering that, in the case where there is an even number of votes for and against a motion, the tie will be broken by the Speaker of Council. Unfortunately for the DA, the Speaker happens to be a member of the African Transformation Movement – a party that is aligned with the ANC-EFF. And so, should a single councillor from inside the multiparty coalition vote against the government, Cilliers Brink’s government could fall.

Practically, a far larger threat to the coalition is currently being presented by Action SA which has spent the past week openly contemplating setting up a new government with the ANC and EFF. If Action SA takes this course, then the complicated arithmetic set out above will be rendered irrelevant as between them those three parties will have a clear majority in council of 117-97.

But for Brink and the Democratic Alliance, the threat posed by Action SA is most likely next week’s problem. Ward 92 is this week’s problem.

The margins will be fine. The stakes could not be higher. Every vote counts.