OPINION

We've entered the twilight glow of Zuma power

Douglas Gibson says the President must have died a little inside at his humiliation at the FNB stadium last week

The state funeral at Qunu brought to an end the national mourning surrounding the passing of the late President Nelson Mandela. Unprecedented international media coverage reflected the interest of the whole world in our late president and the unparalleled attendance by almost every world leader at the memorial service symbolised the respect and admiration - indeed, veneration - in which he was held.

Now it is all over - except for two things. The first was the reception President Zuma received from the crowd. And the second was the presidential handshake between America and Cuba.

President Zuma was no doubt looking forward to being the central figure among the myriad world figures who gathered in Soweto to honour our fallen icon. He had every right to think this would be a dramatic and moving high point of his career. Instead, before the whole world and its leaders, he was publicly humiliated. Some politicians have thick skins and President Zuma's must be thicker than most but I'll bet he died a little inside at the embarrassment of it all.

Government spin doctors will explain it all away, as they are paid to do; but I believe this was a watershed moment when power started slipping away from the Earl of Nkandla. Expect it to happen again as the election campaign hots up.

If he succeeds in clinging on and remaining at the head of the ANC, as I anticipate, he will do so with a much diminished grip on power and the election will make him even more indebted to forces and factions within his party that will all demand their pound of flesh. (Or to put it more bluntly: they will demand their turn to feed at the trough). Whatever happens between now and the election we have entered the twilight glow of Zuma power.

The other fascinating aspect was the Obama/Castro handshake - the first between presidents of the USA and Cuba since at least 1959. Unlike President Mandela, who believed in talking with everyone in the world, the Americans have steadfastly refused to lift sanctions and to interact with the Cubans.

For more than half a century, what seems to most of the world as a senseless and unproductive stand-off has continued. Part of the problem is the election arithmetic of US presidential elections: Florida is a crucial to any aspiring president and Florida generally has stood firm against altering that stance, partly because of the influence of the many Cubans who have settled there and become US voters. Republicans too, have generally been against any rapprochement.

President Raul Castro has opened the door a little and moved somewhat away from the policies his brother, Fidel, pursued for so long. Many people believe that if the US were to relax sanctions and embrace Cuba, it could move quite rapidly from a wannabe-Marxist state towards democracy. American politics prevented that. But President Obama will never fight another election. One wonders whether he has the courage to grasp the moment that he created in Soweto last Tuesday and turn the handshake with Castro into the start of something bigger and much more significant.  

Douglas Gibson is former Opposition Chief Whip and former ambassador to Thailand. He can be followed on Twitter @dhmgibson

This article first appeared in The Citizen.

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