The Johannesburg coalition government that was formed in the aftermath of the 2021 local government elections is arguably the most prominent available litmus test for whether a national opposition coalition might one-day displace the ruling ANC.
The Johannesburg coalition was formed as a partnership between the Democratic Alliance (DA), Action South Africa (ASA), the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), the Congress of the People (COPE), the Freedom Front Plus (FF+), the African Christian Democratic Party (ACDP), the United Independent Movement (UIM) and the Patriotic Alliance (PA).
At the end of September of 2022 that partnership fragmented amidst much inter-party acrimony (although to some extent this has been repaired).
Following this the Social Research Foundation (SRF) polled 600 Johannesburg opposition voters between October and November of 2022 to test their perceptions of coalition politics in general and the coalition that had up to that point governed in Johannesburg in particular.