2016 Local Government Election Results: The implications for the ANC and DA

The recent local government elections have come and gone. Alas! The most powerful party over the last 22 years, the ANC, has come out of these elections the biggest loser. The voters delivered a powerful message to the ANC: ‘we are our own liberators, so listen to us’! They delivered this message in various ways. The harshest was depriving the ANC power to govern in virtually all the powerful metros in the country. This is a huge psychological defeat any revolutionary movement can suffer.

However, my view is that these elections delivered an even more powerful message not only to the ANC, but to the Democratic Alliance (DA) as well. For both these organisations the message from the voters is loud and clear in its simplicity.

Accordingly, the most significant message for the ANC is that black voters will henceforth learn that there is nothing fundamentally wrong in not voting for the ANC. Those traditionally ANC supporters who were ambivalent about voting for any other party except for the ANC, will from now onwards be emboldened to vote any other party but the ANC. This is because losing major metros by the ANC will in itself become a liberating experience for many of those fed with the patronising mantra that the ANC would rule until the second coming.

In view of the abuse and disempowerment of voters by those propagating this mantra using their power in some municipal councils, voters will now feel free from their humiliating stranglehold. Voters will begin to appreciate that service delivery is not the sole preserve of one political party of liberation. That is the new normal for all hard-working and honest ANC members.

Furthermore, the black voters in the formerly ANC controlled municipalities will now taste the experience of being governed by a different political party that shares no history of political affinities with them. This will most likely have a positive impact in revitalising the groundswell of community activism. We argue this because without any history of political affinities between community activists and the local governing party, people will again find their voice and express their views without fear or favour.

Accordingly, if the new governing party is able properly to respond to people’s grievances in those metros and other municipalities lost by the ANC, that experience will further encourage more people to vote away from the ANC. Even those who did not vote will find the experience encouraging enough to start voting differently to their historical choice. Because people naturally like a winning team, they may most likely decide to go with it.

When this happens, the acceleration of the ANC decline will be in full swing. Painfully, this may bring closer the national demise of the liberation movement as we knew it. To prevent this becoming a reality, the ANC – if it still exists at all - knows what it should do. A lot of people including ANC veterans and cadres spoke at length regarding what needs to be done. The ANC leadership chose to wear blinkers in their zealous quest to protect a monumentally flawed individual at all costs.

Even the ANC NEC statement after the elections’ disaster is nothing short of condescending platitudes and regurgitation of old promises. Otherwise why still has it not acted on the recommendations of Dr. Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma regarding the manipulation of lists in the 2011 local government elections?

This is just more of the same middle finger shown to South Africans after the Constitutional Court judgement on Nkandla. They have again decided to comfortably and contentedly remain with the elephant looming large in the room. This comfort will soon become discomfort as they will be assailed by the truth of an impending organisational demise.

As for the DA

The election results have shown that the DA is now growing stronger among some of the black communities where the ANC traditionally dominated. The message communicated by this is simple: the transformation of the DA into something responsive to the historical grievance of the black majority will be inevitable. To want to argue that race will not matter is not only delusional but unrealistic. As to what the DA will transform will be informed by a variety of factors.

It is a truism that switching political allegiance by black voters from ANC to DA does not necessarily mean they have now abandoned their historical grievance. In fact, that grievance will become even more pronounced as black voters will expect their new governing party to do better for them than their erstwhile governing party. This expectation will thus exert more pressure on the new governing party to deliver on this black grievance but without being insensitive to the interests of its other constituencies.

Consequently, the black vote will thus come at a cost for the DA. This cost may be for better or for worse, depending on the choices the DA will make. Whatever the choices the DA makes though, there are bound to be negative consequences. The trick will be to choose the scenario that represents less risks, whilst taking a giant step forward to the future.

On the one hand, the DA may naturally choose to appease its traditionally white support by remaining more biased to their interests. Or it may use the imminently dominant black grievance as a springboard to fashion a new, modern, African oriented liberal party that will ensure a giant leap into the future. By choosing the latter option it may do well to expect that most of its conservative white support will leave the DA in protest.

Accordingly, given the growing black vote for the DA and the attendant dominant black grievance imminent within its ranks, that is the lesser risk they may have to take without alienating the progressive white liberals in their midst. It’s a difficult but the only reasonable option if the DA is to become a modern, African liberal party that accommodates its growing black vote. Otherwise it will implode just as the ANC is doing.   

Mzukisi Makatse is a member of the ANC. He writes in his personal capacity.