WHERE MIGHT WE BE IN 2030
Jun 29, 2018
The recently launched Indlulamithi Scenarios 2030 has once again focused the minds of South Africans on what the future might hold and steps to be taken to achieve optimal outcomes in respect of the democratic process, economic growth and crucially that of building an inclusive, socially-cohesive society.
This country is no stranger to scenario planning exercises that seek to outline options and implications that will hold the country ransom or take it forward. Perhaps 17 March 1992 was one such seminal moment, when former President FW de Klerk announced the results of a referendum that sought to test whether to maintain the apartheid status quo or begin the process of reform by ending apartheid and move toward a collective future. The momentum going into the constitutional negotiations was buoyed by the fact that the overwhelming majority of voters at the time had to reflect on two scenarios going forward and 68% of voters wanted change and an end to apartheid.
Scenarios are useful tools to focus the mind and as the summary document of the Indlulamithi Scenarios explain, “a scenario is a constructed story about a possible future. Scenarios facilitate conversations that aim to understand a wide range of driving forces that will impact on the future.” Inhumed within many scenario planning exercises is an inherent set of concerns and a set of proposals about how to address these going forward to reach a modicum of a “blue sky scenario”.
In the case of the Indlulamithi Scenarios, the sentiment is aptly summed up, “Indlulamithi seeks to help South Africans realise a common purpose and shared vision that focuses on appreciation of our diversity and on solidarity as a means to development and progress”. This set of scenarios also attempts to hang its hat on the National Development Plan (NDP), launched in 2012, which outlined a vision for South Africa by 2030. It is, “a plan to unite South Africans, unleash the energies of its citizens, grow an inclusive economy, build capabilities, and enhance the capability of the state and leaders working together to solve complex problems”. If we do the maths, we have 12 years to fix the country to achieve this vision.