DID THE COMMISSION OF INQUIRY ON STATE CAPTURE UNINTENTIONALLY EXTEND JACOB ZUMA'S POLITICAL SHELF LIFE?
The previous Public Protector’s report on state capture has been released and the political impact of the report and its findings have already been felt, and will be for some time. What happens after the Commission of Inquiry (the Commission) publishes its report, findings and recommendations? What influence will these have on the Zuma presidency and his successors?
The recommendation of the Public Protector is that the President appoints a Commission of Inquiry within 30 days. This must therefore take place by 2 December. For this to happen the President requires the name of the designated Chairman very soon - as identified by Chief Justice Mogoeng. The Commission has 180 days to complete its work. Let’s assume that time will be needed to appoint all members and officials, to make logistical arrangements, and so forth, and that the Commission will start its work on 1 February 2017.
The deadline for the Commission’s report, its findings and recommendations to be presented to the President, is therefore 31 July 2017. The President must then make a copy of the report available to Parliament within 14 days, including an indication of his intentions regarding implementation of the findings. This brings us to approximately the end of August 2017. Unless obstacles are thrown in the path of the Commission, the report should be released at least three months before the ANC's elective conference in December 2017.
What will the impact be on the ANC and the new leadership if the Commission confirms the findings of the previous Public Protector? It is clear from the statement and actions of the ANC veterans on 3 November that the issue is no longer whether there is a problem with state capture and the President, but rather, what to do about it and how to do it.
For most South Africans and political commentators, it is very clear: President Zuma is an embarrassment and liability to the country and the ANC. The sooner he is removed, the better, especially in view of the elections that will take place in early 2019.