Complications
Last night Mr. Mugabe nearly gave the entire country a heart attack. In the late afternoon a ZTV outside broadcasting unit was driven into State House where Mr. Mugabe and the Military Commanders were negotiating his departure from Office. After Saturday when millions of Zimbabweans took to the streets to call for his retirement and then the Sunday meeting of the Zanu PF Central Committee at which he was summarily dismissed from the leadership of the Party and replaced by Emmerson Mnangagwa, we all expected a humble and contrite Mugabe to announce he was stepping down.
We waited from 19.00hrs to 21.00hrs for him to come on TV live and when he did the setting was quite bizarre. He was sitting behind what looked like a coffin draped in a white sheet, behind him were two flags and on either side, were the Commander of the Armed forces, General Chiwenga and on the other side a rather rotund Catholic Priest. An apt setting for the last rites with both executioner and Priest present. Then there was an honor guard of what must have been 20 senior Army Officers in one long row.
What then followed was equally bizarre. He spoke for about 25 minutes, losing his way and not reading well, but it was a rambling discourse and only vague references to the massive protests on the streets on Saturday and no mention of the Zanu PF meeting that morning or his change of status – in fact the only thing he said about the future was that he would “chair the Zanu PF Congress in a few weeks time”. What was quite clear and perhaps this was the main reason for this farcical exercise, was that this is a very old man, barely able to read, obviously senile and with little understanding of the situation, and clearly in deep denial.
What perturbed me was the statements at the Zanu PF Central Committee meeting that Zanu PF would not do any deals with the MDC T and would not form a national Government in any sense, they would carry on as before, simply with new Zanu PF leadership. My view is and has always been, that this is simply not sustainable – Zimbabwe is in a deep political, social and economic crisis and unless arrested in the very near future, this is going to do irreparable damage to the economy which already can hardly function. Our national debt is now over 200 per cent of GDP and cannot be serviced.
The Treasury Bills held by Commercial banks exceed their capital by a wide margin and the State is unable to either service the interest or to redeem them at face value. Inflation is already at hyperinflation levels and accelerating fast. Discounts on all local forms of money are rising and now stand at between 40 and 80 per cent. Earnings on exports are being converted into local currency at official rates and this will lead to a collapse of the firms involved. The fiscal deficit this year could be US$2,2 billion with revenues of $3,8 – completely unsustainable.