The Outlook for 2019 is Dismal - unless?
I was called by a major local newspaper this past week and asked what my view of 2019 was? I laughed at the question because right now I do not think anyone could tell you what is going on, let alone predict 2019. Then I had coffee with two of the most important business leaders in the country. What they expressed to me was sobering.
They said that in their view there was no centre of power, at least in the Mugabe days you knew who was the boss, if he gave an order it was followed without question. Now no one seems in charge - there are many centres of power in this new Regime. Then they went on to say that no decisions were being made - there was complete chaos on local markets, massive fuel queues and many different prices - people did not know how to price their goods and services.
Then they said that corruption seems to be as bad as ever. Major deals were being held up by corrupt officials and no one seems to be willing to take action. State communications were confusing to say the least, misleading at best. No one was being convicted of corruption, even in the most obvious circumstances. The rule of law was hardly being observed and property rights abused even in the case of foreign investors. The Police were still ignoring Court instructions if cases were seen as being 'political'. Even the Commission report on the August first shootings in Harare, looks like a 128-page whitewash. Why?
The economic situation looks dire. Gold sales to the Reserve Bank are down 40 per cent, all exporters are struggling under draconian regulations imposed by the Reserve Bank requiring them to give up the majority of their foreign earnings at one third of their value. There is widespread corruption in the allocation of hard currency by the Bank at this totally unrealistic value and the demand for subsidised products such as bread and fuel is outstripping supply with hundreds of thousands of vehicles in queues. The Reserve Bank Governors response - 'There is no shortage, look at the traffic!' Totally ridiculous.
If these fundamental issues are not addressed, and soon, 2019 will be a very dismal space for all Zimbabweans. Already we are struggling with near hyper inflation figures, we have been telling the Government for months that their official statics were fanciful. Inflation is galloping along. The Reserve Bank tells us the local currency is one to one with the US dollar when we all know that it is a fraction of that value in real terms, yet because of this fiction no official adjustments to salaries are being even considered. So living standards are plummeting for all who rely on a fixed income.