Where do we go from here?
This past weekend we saw the conclusion of the long awaited Zanu PF Conference at the Victoria Falls. It had been closely watched with great expectations as prior to the conference there had been a great deal of maneuvering within the Party. The central issue was the issue of succession with the State President, now 93 years old, showing increasing signs that he is unable to handle his responsibilities in the way he has in the past. Also there were conflicts over the issue of the need to have a woman in the Presidium and the questions of the policies being followed by the Ministry of Finance.
In the end it was a complete anticlimax – the issue of the succession was simply squashed – the resolution reached was that Mr. Mugabe would be the party’s Presidential candidate in 2018 by when he will be 96 years old. No changes were agreed to the Presidium and no changes were adopted to policies – they decided they would carry on as before.
The problem with this stance is that it leaves the country in a state of limbo. The failure to come to grips with the succession issue means increased uncertainly for everyone. The various elements in the Party with aspirations remain engaged with the issue, they know full well that the old man is at the end of his long career and that leadership change is inevitable. The problem for the country is that should the inevitable happen soon – the contestants, like a family in a situation where the father has died without a will, might descend into conflict. Conflict in a family can be very vicious.
Then there is the issue of the demand for a woman to be brought into the Presidium. This is a clear conflict between two powerful factions in the Party – the one led by Grace Mugabe and the other by Emmerson Mnangagwa. This is not going to go away and will further exacerbate the sense of national uncertainty and the potential for conflict. The outcome all depends on which way the Old Man will move in support of one group or another.
Then there was the issue of future economic policy. The country is now clearly in the grip of a serious economic contraction caused by erratic and inconsistent policies and difficult macro economic conditions. Business confidence is at an all time low and incomes and tax revenues are declining.