There are, I believe, three things that one can claim are "definite" about President Jacob G Zuma, who is a difficult sort of person to pin down. There are probably more than three, but let's stick to those relevant to this article.
The first is that Zuma is the quintessential ANC man. The party has been, literally, his life. He is now 69 years' old and has lived and breathed the party since he was 17. He has never had another job, other than some menial ones in Durban when he was 17.
The second is that Zuma has always been seized, as the lawyers say, with intelligence as a way of life and operating. By "intelligence" I am not of course referring to abstract thought, understanding, reasoning, and so on. I am talking about "information gathering" for the purposes of military or political action.
I'm referring to the spook stuff. Not for nothing did Zuma end up as chief of the ANC's intelligence department. Not for nothing have his main stalwarts come from Operation Vula: Mac Maharaj, Siphiwe Nyanda (now prematurely retired to count his money), Pravin Gordhan, and Moe Shaik.
Thirdly, a hallmark of Zuma's personality is that he demands absolute loyalty to himself from those with whom he works and consorts. For him, disloyalty is a grievous sin. The question, of course, is to what extent he gives loyalty in response.
With these thoughts in mind, let's have a look at two moves that Zuma has made recently - or, rather, one that he's made and one that he's omitted to make.
We start with the second. According to reports and to information I have been given, the country's senior spooks are having a tiff, the trouble being that it is a serious one that could end in certain important people taking the lonely walk to unemployment.
The head of the State Security Agency, Gibson Njenje, foreign branch head Moe Shaik, and DG Jeff Maqetuka have clashed with the minister of state security, Siyabonga Cwele, apparently over their refusal to put senior ANC leaders under surveillance. Given their recalcitrance, Cwele is said to want them gone. This is serious stuff; these are the top three in the National Intelligence Agency (NIA).
Yet, when at least one of the three went to see the big boss, Zuma responded that he could "not get involved in little boys' games". This is Zuma-speak for "you're on your own - I'm waiting to see where the chips will fall".
And there are already rumours of the imminent return of Billy Masetlha (former NIA DG) to a senior post.
Given Zuma's belief in the importance of the NIA, what does this say about him? And given his attitude to loyalty - and no group has served Zuma more loyally than the Shaiks - what is the president up to? With whom is he conferring late at night?
The second matter, the action Zuma has taken, is his decision to appoint a commission of inquiry to investigate allegations of wrongdoing in the arms deal.
Why would Zuma make such an apparently bizarre move is the question on the lips of people across South Africa. This is because when most people hear the phrases "arms deal" and "Zuma", they automatically say: Gee, Zuma was investigated for corruption in connection with the arms deal, why would he want to re-open that can of worms?
Now, Zuma might not have had a choice. As advocate Paul Hoffman, who is representing arms deal activist Terry Crawford-Browne, who has taken the government to the constitutional court over the arms deal, said: "Perhaps [Zuma's lawyers] decided it would be preferable not to go on oath [in court]."
Instead, Zuma and his advisers might have decided that a commission, which Zuma can control to some extent through its terms of reference, and especially if he has a chum at its helm, might be a smarter way to go.
In fact, commissions of inquiry remind us of the Hefer Commission of Inquiry - which targeted Zuma, though he avoided it, and with which Mac Maharaj, his new spokesman, was intimately involved. In fact, I sense Maharaj's "input" all over this latest decision.
In addition, most people, including some major commentators, tend to get it wrong about Zuma and the arms deal. Zuma was charged with a whole raft of charges related to corruption and money-laundering, as was his "financial adviser" Schabir Shaik. One charge only was related to the arms deal - one only.
Of course it was a sexy charge, involving a French arms dealer and an encrypted fax. But the charge of which Shaik was found guilty was having solicited a bribe of R500 000 a year for two years for Zuma. Relative to all the other amounts being touted in connection with the arms deal, one million bucks is chicken feed. In short, Zuma has little to fear from an arms deal commission of inquiry - and he knows it.
However, there are a number of people who do have much to fear from such a commission - and not just people. Where, after all, do we think the arms deal bribe money, which did not go into individual pockets, went?
I would guess it went into ANC election campaigns, especially the 1999 one. And who was running the show in those days? Thabo Mbeki and his merry men. Well, no love lost between Zuma, Maharaj, on the one hand, and the Mbeki camp on the other - and it's a good time, in the run-up to Manaung 2012, to clean out the Mbeki supporters once and for all.
Still, the ANC, if it were shown to be the recipient of ill-gotten gains, would get an even worse name than it is starting to get. And Zuma is a party man. So I have to close by asking yet again: What is the president up to? With whom is he conferring late at night?
Jeremy Gordin has written or co-authored three books, including the bestselling biography of Jacob Zuma. He is director of the Wits Justice Project. This article first appeared in the Daily Dispatch.
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