Shadow Crime Report: How up-to-date local information can help fight crime - Dan Plato, Western Cape MEC of Community Safety

26 Sep 2012

Year after year, the annual crime statistics released by the South African Police Service (SAPS) are criticised for being reactive, too late and outdated. With this in mind, the Western Cape Department of Community Safety has now developed a system which allows us to use alternative indicators other than crime statistics to compile a "shadow crime statistics report".

The data used to compile our first Shadow Crime Report has been obtained from the SAPS (crime statistics) and the mortuary statistics for 2008 - 2012. This information allows us to conduct multiple analyses with critical additional information needed for proactive responses. The information allows us to be more responsive, allocating our limited resources more effectively and to move away from a one-size-fits-all approach to crime, allowing for localised responses according to the safety needs that exist in communities. 

If we can identify a specific area with a high number of alcohol-related crimes, we can investigate liquor outlets in that area and take the necessary action should any illegal shebeens be found. Another opportunity would be to target our safety initiatives in an area that has a spike in crime over a specific period, e.g. increased road blocks, safety awareness meetings with the community and we can request SAPS to heighten their visible policing operations.

As provided for in the Community Safety Bill, the Western Cape Government (WCG) has started to develop an integrated safety information system that considers all potential sources of safety information at our disposal. This integrated safety information will also serve to identify trends of crime and the reaction to that by the police so as to allow for the monitoring of police in terms of section 206(3) of the Constitution.

By using alternative sources of information (such as mortuary stats and independent research reports), we can be more responsive to the safety needs that exist in our communities and also make use of our limited resources more effectively.

This information has permitted us to identify, for example:

• A profile of victims, based on factors such as gender, race or age.
• Gender: The vast majority of murder victims in the Western Cape last year were male. 87% of murders recorded were male, compared with 13% female. Considering that males make up approximately 48% of the population of the province, this shows that men are more likely to become victims of murder than women.
• Age and race: Similarly, we were able to analyse the age group of victims and found that 63% of murder victims in the Western Cape were between the ages of 18 and 35 years old, yet population demographics tell us that the 30-54 age category accounts for the highest number of population in the province (32%), meaning that younger people are disproportionately becoming victims of murder. Likewise, the majority of murder victims were classified as African (59%), compared with 38% Coloured murder victims.
• By analysing the data collected for this report, we have been able to determine the profile for murder victims in the ten most crime-affected policing precincts is an African male, aged 18-35 years, who has died of stab wounds, between midnight and 06:00, specifically over the weekend.
• Nature of injury: While most murders in the province overall were from sharp objects (stabbings) - 49%, the number of murders by shootings in gang-plagued areas is significantly higher than the provincial norm.

Police stations with the most gunshot murder victims for 2011/12: 

The rate and number of murders committed in known gang areas has increased by significant margins since 2008, while over the same period of time little success has been achieved with the prosecution of murder cases in those areas.

As an example, from 2007/08 - 2011/12, of the 197 cases of murder registered at the Philippi police station (responsible for Hanover Park), there have only been 35 convictions resulting in a 17.7% success rate over a period of five years. If the convictions are considered against the number of prosecutions finalised, the success rate is slightly higher at 25.3%. Indicating that, for the past five years, 75% of murders in Hanover Park and surrounding areas remain unpunished.

We have also been able to identify, for example:

• The ten police precincts which have recorded the highest number of murders in the last year: These ten police stations, out of 149 police precincts in the province, account for almost half - 41.1% (1 011 cases) of all of the murders recorded in the Western Cape (2 290 murders). At these ten stations, more than half of the murders were committed on weekends and mainly between midnight and 06:00. The stations were: Nyanga, Khayelitsha, Harare, Gugulethu, Kraaifontein, Delft, Mitchell's Plain, Philippi East, Bishop Lavis and Mfuleni.
• The cyclical nature of murder in certain areas indicate that January and February generally have the lowest numbers of murders, with a peak over the festive season during December. However, this is for the province as a whole. If one examines specific areas, different patterns start to emerge. For example, Nyanga shows a decline in murders over this same peak period.

The information received demonstrates the significance of localised information which can now be used for more specific interventions, which can have a far more meaningful impact.

With this kind of information shared by different levels of government, the SAPS could heighten their visible policing operations in the affected areas, illegal liquor outlets could be more easily identified and various other interventions could be introduced.

We will release this shadow crime report every six months, with the aim of eventually providing quarterly reports. We believe that more regular reporting of crime information and making this information available to the public will go a long way in curbing crime, educating the public about crime in their area and allowing the whole of society to play an active role in making our communities safer Better Together.

View the Shadow Crime Report.

Statement issued by Western Cape Community Safety, September 26 2012

Click here to sign up to receive our free daily headline email newsletter