EXECUTIVE CHAOS

Discontinuity in the National Executive: 2009-2018

October 2018

Introduction

This document comprises two sections. Section A: The Facts — sets out the evidence regarding the turmoil in the National Executive. Secondly, all the information in the document is drawn from Annexure A, which can be found at the end of this document and comprises an overview of all 14 Na- tional Executives between 10 May 2009 and 9 October 2018.

Ideally, from an African National Congress (ANC) perspective, the period 2009-2018 would have comprised two terms under President Jacob Zuma and, in turn, relative continuity (there will inevitably be some changes that have to be made to the executive from time to time). One of the benefits of hav- ing both a large majority and a two-term President is a stable national administration and the chance for its members to build up time, experience and a consolidated team in a given portfolio. However, it has instead been a period marked by profound turmoil and dramatic and frequent change, with some time to go still until the next national and provincial election in 2019.

Summary

There have been 14 reconstituted National Executives since 10 May 2009. The average National Execu- tive lasts 245 days (or 165 working days) until it is reconstituted. The longest lasted 540 days (or 372 working days). The shortest lasted just 5 days (or 3 working days). There are 8 National Executives that have lasted less than 200 working days and 4 that have lasted less than 100 working days. There have been 164 changes made to the National Executive since 2009. A total of 94 changes have been made to ministerial positions (including 1 to the position of President) and 70 changes to Deputy Ministerial positions (including 2 to the position of Deputy President).

In total, 129 people have served as either a Minister or Deputy Minister since 2009. Some 57 people who once served in either of those positions are no longer part of the National Executive. By the time his second term started, Jacob Zuma’s Cabinet retention rate was just 28% (compared to 52% for former President Thabo Mbeki). Of the 64 members selected to the National Executive on 10 May 2009, 37 (or 58%) are no longer part of the Executive and only 7 (11%) retain their original positions. Only 1 ministry — basic education — boasts an unchanged Minister and Deputy Minister since 2009. By contrast, the Ministry of Communications has had 8 dif- ferent Ministers and 5 different Deputy Ministers (The average Communications Minister serves for 430 days or 294 working days before being reshuffled).

Definitions

This document looks at the extent and nature of the changes made to the 14 National Executives that have held office between 10 May 2009 (the first) and 9 October 2018 (the fourteenth).

The National Executive comprises the President, the Deputy President, all Ministers and all Deputy Ministers. It should be distinguished from the Cabinet, which comprises the President, Deputy President and all Ministers. Changes to the National Executive are done at the discretion of the President.

The current National Executive (as of 9 October 2018) comprises 72 members, including the Presi- dent, the Deputy President, 34 Ministers and 36 Deputy Ministers, who oversee 37 different ministries. There are, however, 77 positions in the current National Executive, 5 of which are vacant.

The National Executive has grown significantly since the first (10 May 2009). Back then, it com- prised 64 members. That is, the President, the Deputy President, 34 Ministers and 28 Deputy Ministers, who oversaw 34 different ministries. There were, however, 69 positions in the first National Executive, 5 of which were left vacant.

This analysis concerns the two five-year terms under President Jacob Zuma, which ideally would have run from 2009 to 2018, but which were interrupted late into the second term by the election of Cyril Ramaphosa as ANC President and, later, as South Africa’s President, on 14 February 2018.

Nevertheless, Ramaphosa does not enjoy a public mandate and, given that the point and benefit of having a two-term President is continuity — and with it experience and knowledge in a given position

— it is reasonable to assess the two terms as one.

Finally, while some of these ‘reshuffles’ are extensive, and others minimal, even small changes can be deeply significant, as South Africa found out on 9 December 2015 when President Zuma removed Nhlanhla Nene from his position as Finance Minister.

Section A: The Facts

- The average National Executive lasts for 245 days or 165 working days (or 35 weeks).

- The longest was the first, which lasted 540 days (or 372 working days) from 10 May 2009 to 31 Oc- tober 2010.

- The shortest was the ninth, which lasted just 5 days (or 3 working days) from 9 December 2015 to 13 December 2015.

- 8 National Executives have lasted less than 200 working days; 4 have lasted less than 100 working days.

- Just 3 National Executives have lasted longer than a year, without interruption.

- There have been 164 changes made to the National Executive since 2009. 94 changes have been made to ministerial positions (including one to the position of President) and 70 changes to deputy ministe- rial positions (including two to the position of Deputy President).

- The most comprehensive set of changes was made to the seventh Executive, when 47 positions were changed — that is 25 to ministerial positions and 22 to deputy ministerial positions.

- On two occasions just 1 change has been made to the Executive (in both cases the ninth and fourteenth executives) to the position of Finance Minister.

- The average number of changes per reshuffle is 11.4 (6.4 ministerial positions and 5 deputy ministe- rial positions).

- Because changes were made to ministerial positions in every reshuffle, there have also been 14 differ- ent Cabinets since 10 May 2009.

The retention rate

- Jacob Zuma’s first Executive (10 May 2009) comprised 64 members: the President, the Deputy Presi- dent, 34 Ministers and 28 Deputy Ministers, who oversaw 34 different ministries. By comparing the number of Ministers who held the same position when he constituted his first Cabinet for his second administration (his seventh Executive in all, on 25 May 2014), it is possible to determine the reten- tion rate. We can use the same former President’s first-term Cabinet and his Cabinet at the start of his second term, for the purposes of comparison. Those ministries that were restructured have been excluded.

***

- Of the 32 members in Jacob Zuma’s first-term Cabinet, 9 held the same position when he announced his second-term Cabinet. That constitutes a retention rate of 28%.

- By comparison, of the 29 members in Thabo Mbeki’s first-term Cabinet, 15 held the same position when he announced his second-term Cabinet. That constitutes a retention rate of 52%.

First Executive retention rate: 2009 versus 2018

- Using Jacob Zuma’s first full Executive (the President, Deputy President, 34 Ministers and 28 Deputy Ministers) on 10 May 2009, it is possible to track over the course of the next nine years and 13 re- shuffles how many members of the original are still in the same positions in the Executive or are no longer part of it.

- Of the 34 Ministers selected on 10 May 2009, only 4 retain their original positions: Ms M A Motshekga (basic education); Mr E Patel (economic development); Dr PA Motsoaledi (health) and Dr R Davies (trade and industry).

- 19 Ministers from 2009 are no longer part of the Executive: Ms T Joemat-Pettersson (agriculture); Ms L Xingwana (arts and culture); Mr S Nyanda (communications); Mr S Shiceka (co-operative govern- ance); Ms ED Peters (energy); Mr TME Sexwale (human settlements); Mr M Mdladlana (labour); Ms S Shabangu (mining); Ms B Hogan (public enterprises); Mr R Baloyi (public service and administra- tion); Mr G Doidge (public works); Ms E Molewa (social development); Mr M Stofile (sport); Mr TA Manuel (national planning); Mr OC Chabane (performance monitoring); Mr M van Schalkwyk (tour- ism); Mr SJ Ndebele (transport); Ms B Sonjica (water affairs) and Ms N Mayende-Sibiya (women, children, disabilities).

- Both the President (Mr JG Zuma) and the Deputy President (Mr K Motlanthe) are also no longer part of the Executive.

- Of the 28 Deputy Ministers selected on 10 May 2009, only 3 retain their original positions: Mr E Surty (basic education); Ms ZA Kota-Fredericks (human settlements) and Mr GC Oosthuizen (sport).

- 16 Deputy Ministers from 2009 are no longer part of the executive: Dr PW Mulder (agriculture); Mr P Mashatile (arts and culture); Ms D Pule (communications); Mr Y Carrim (co-operative governance); Prof HB Mkhize (correctional services); Ms G Mahlangu-Nkabinde (economic development); Mr NM Nene (finance); Dr M Sefularo (health); Mr EI Ebrahim (international relations); Ms S van der Merwe (international relations); Mr F Mbalula (police); Mr E Godongwana (public enterprises); Mr R Padayachie (public service and administration); Ms TV Tobias-Pokolo (trade and industry); Ms BM Ntuli (trade and industry) and Ms RT Mabudafhasi (water affairs).

- In total, of the 64 members selected to the National Executive on 10 May 2009, 37 (or 58%) are no longer part of the executive.

- In total, of the 64 members selected to the National Executive on 10 May 2009, only 7 (11%) retain their original positions.

- There are 22 members (34%) of the 2009 Executive, who have survived every reshuffle, in the same position or who have been moved to different positions: Dr PA Motsoaledi; Dr R Davies; Dr SC Cwele; Mr AC Nel; Mr E Patel; Mr E Surty; Mr G Nkwinti; Mr GC Oosthuizen; Mr J Cronin; Mr JT Radebe; Mr MKN Gigaba; Mr N Mthethwa; Mr T Makwetla; Ms BO Dlamini; Ms L Sisulu; Ms MA Motshekga; MS ME Nkoana-Mashabane; Ms N Pandor; Ms NN Mapisa-Nqakula; Ms S Shabangu; Ms T Xasa and Ms ZA Kota-Fredericks.

Full list of those no longer part of the Executive

- Across all 14 Executives since 2009, 57 people have at one stage been a Minister or Deputy minister but are no longer part of the Executive: Adv. N Ramatlhodi; Dr G Ramokgopa; Dr M Sefularo; Dr PW Mulder; Mr B Martins; Mr BT Bongo; Mr D Mahlobo; Mr DDD Van Rooyen; Mr E Godongwana; Mr EI Ebrahim; Mr F Mbalula; Mr G Doidge; Mr J Maswanganyi; Mr JG Zuma; Mr SJ Ndebele; Mr K Motlanthe; Mr M Fransman; Mr M Jonas; Mr M Manana; Mr M Masina; Mr M Mdladlana; Mr M Stofile; Mr M van Schalkwyk; Mr MJ Zwane; Mr N Nhleko; Mr NM Nene; Mr OC Chabane; Mr P Mashatile; Mr R Baloyi; Mr R Padayachie; Mr S Nyanda; Mr S Shiceka; Mr SJ Ndebele; Mr SL Tse- noli; Mr TA Manuel; Mr TME Sexwale; Mr Y Carrim; Ms B Hogan; Ms B Sonjica; Ms BE Molewa; Ms BM Ntuli; Ms C September; Ms D Pule; Ms ED Peters; Ms F Muthambi; Ms G Mahlangu- Nkabinde; Ms L Brown; Ms L Xingwana; Ms M Kubayi; Ms N Mayende-Sibiya; Ms N November; Ms RT Mabudafhasi; Ms S van der Merwe; Ms T Joemat-Pettersson; Ms T Mahambehlala; Ms TV Tobias-Pokolo and Prof HB Mkhize.

- Given that the current National Executive comprises a further 72 members, there are now 129 people who have served as either a Minister or Deputy Minister since 2009.

The most unstable Ministries

1. Communications: 8 Ministers, 5 Deputy Ministers (The average Communications Minister serves for 430 days or 294 working days)

2. Finance: 7 Ministers, 4 Deputy Ministers (The average Finance Minister serves for 491 days or 336 working days)

3. Public Service and Administration: 7 Ministers, 4 Deputy Ministers

4. Energy: 6 Ministers, 2 Deputy Ministers (The average Energy Minister serves for 573 days or 392 working days)

5. Co-operative Governance: 6 Ministers, 3 Deputy Ministers

6. Home Affairs: 6 Ministers, 3 Deputy Ministers

7. Public Works: 5 Ministers, 2 Deputy Ministers

8. Transport: 5 Ministers, 2 Deputy Ministers (The average Transport Minister serves for 688 days or 471 working days).

The most stable Ministries

1. Basic Education: 1 Minister, 1 Deputy Minister

2. Telecommunications and Postal Service: 1 Minister, 2 Deputy Ministers (since 2014)

3. Small Business Development: 1 Minister, 3 Deputy Ministers (since 2014)

4. Health: 1 Minister, 3 Deputy Ministers

5. Economic Development: 1 Minister, 4 Deputy Ministers

6. Trade and Industry: 1 Minister, 5 Deputy Ministers (2 Deputy Minister positions).

The most reshuffled Ministers

The following have served in the greatest number of positions:

- Prof HB Mkhize: 6 positions (Deputy Minister of Correctional Services, Deputy Minister of Higher Education, Deputy Minister of Economic Development, Deputy Minister of Telecommunications and Postal Service, Minister of Home Affairs and Minister of Higher Education).

- Mr MKN Gigaba: 5 positions (Deputy Minister of Home Affairs, Minister of Public Enterprises, Minister of Home Affairs, Minister of Finance, Minister of Home Affairs again).

See link below for ANNEXURE A

Issued by the IRR, 18 October 2018

The Institute of Race Relations (IRR) is a liberal think tank that promotes political and economic freedom. If you agree with what you have just read then click here or SMS your name to 32823 (SMSes cost R1, Ts and Cs apply).