Latest IRR Election Poll results
In line with the IRR’s objective to become an authority on political market research, the Institute has undertaken its fourth full survey of the electoral landscape, to supplement surveys carried out in September 2018, December 2018 and February 2019.
Our April Election Poll will be presented to the public in two parts. Part A is presented today. It comprises a sample of 2,375 registered voters and was in the field from 18 April to 25 April. Below is a summary of national voting intention, as well as provincial voting intention in Gauteng and the Western Cape, along with a range of turnout scenarios for that sample. Finally, there is a breakdown of party support by race.
The banner headline findings are presented below; however, the full details – along with an accompanying analysis – are contained in the latest edition of The Criterion Report, which can be found here. It also contains a full methodological explanation. We strongly recommend reading the full report rather than relying solely on the banner headline findings.
Because the last few weeks of any election are fluid, as undecided voters make their final choice and the bigger parties typically “squeeze” their opponents, we have decided to continue polling up until Sunday 5 May. The findings from this second and supplementary tranche – an additional sample of approximately 2,000 registered voters – will be presented to the public on Monday 6 May. This will constitute Part B of our April poll.
KEY FINDINGS
The banner headline findings of the IRR’s 2019 April Election Poll: Part A, are:
1. NATIONAL BALLOT: ANC majority in the balance, EFF continues to grow, DA stable [Tables 1.1.1 and 1.4]
The ANC currently stands on 49.5% nationally, down 5.2 percentage points from February (54.7%). On a 71.9% turnout scenario, support for the party increases to 51%. On a 69.3% turnout scenario, it increases to 50%.
The DA currently stands on 21.3% nationally, down 0.5 percentage points from February (21.8%). On a 71.9% turnout scenario, support for the party increases to 24%. On a 69.3% turnout scenario, it also increases to 24%.
The EFF currently stands on 14.9% nationally, up 2.7 percentage points from February (12.2%). On a 71.9% turnout scenario, support for the party decreases to 14%. On a 69.3% turnout scenario, it also decreases to 14%.
2. GAUTENG PROVINCIAL BALLOT: ANC well below a majority, Significant DA growth on low turnout [Tables 2.1 and 2.2]
The ANC currently stands on 42.8% on the provincial ballot, up 1.2 percentage points from February (41.6%). On a 70.4% turnout scenario, support for the party decreases to 39%. On a 67.7% turnout scenario, it also decreases to 39%.
The DA currently stands on 31.9% on the provincial ballot, down 0.5 percentage points from February (32.4%). On a 70.4% turnout scenario, support for the party increases to 39%. On a 67.7% turnout scenario, it increases to 40%.
The EFF currently stands on 13.0% on the provincial ballot, down 5.2 percentage points from February (18.2%). On a 70.4% turnout scenario, support for the party decreases to 12%. On a 67.7% turnout scenario, it also decreases to 12%.
3. WESTERN CAPE PROVINCIAL BALLOT: DA majority under threat, ANC declines, ACDP/EFF growth [Tables 3.1 and 3.2]
The DA currently stands on 44.6% on the provincial ballot, down 5.5 percentage points from February (50.1%). On a 71.9% turnout scenario, support for the party increases to 50%. On a 69.1% turnout scenario, it increases to 51%.
The ANC currently stands on 27.8% on the provincial ballot, down 6.1 percentage points from February (33.9%). On a 71.9% turnout scenario, support for the party increases to 29%. On a 69.1% turnout scenario, it increases to 28%.
The ACDP currently stands on 7.0% on the provincial ballot, up 3.5 percentage points from February (3.5%). On a 71.9% turnout scenario, support for the party stays at 7%. On a 69.1% turnout scenario, it also stays at 7%.
The EFF currently stands on 6.8% on the provincial ballot, up 5.8 percentage points from February (1.0%). On a 71.9% turnout scenario, support for the party decreases to 5%. On a 69.1% turnout scenario, it also decreases to 5%.
Each of the relevant tables for these findings are contained in this report, together with the IRR’s analysis of those findings at the end of the report.
It is important to appreciate that this poll came out of the field with 14 days of the election period still to go. The last weeks of an election campaign are a critical period during which, historically, the bigger parties – particularly the ANC and DA – tend to consolidate their vote upwards, and the vote share of smaller parties declines, as their voters are pressured. This is still likely to happen. A second IRR April poll, to be published on May 6, will aim to determine the degree to which this trend plays itself out over the final weeks. This poll is not a prediction.
From Saturday 27 April to Saturday 4 May, we are running a daily tracking poll. It will track political support over the course of the last week of the 2019 election campaign, nationally, as well as in Gauteng and the Western Cape. It will be designed to demonstrate how support moved on a daily basis, leading up to the election, as well as the consolidated averages for that period. In this way, we hope to be able to demonstrate “the squeeze” in action.
Statement issued by Gareth van Onselen, Head of Politics and Governance, IRR, 30 April 2019
