SACCI COPPER THEFT BAROMETER: JULY 2012
The Copper Theft Barometer increased to a level of R19.7 million in July from R17.9 million in June and R23 million in May 2012. This is the first monthly increase in the series since the recent spike of R34.7 in March. The Copper Theft Volume Indicator recorded a level of 315 tons in July from 288 tons in June, a 9% increase on a monthly basis. The increases in the Barometer and Volume Indicator are unfortunate and indicate heightened criminal activity and opportunism which has occurred despite the decrease in the international spot price of copper during the first half of the year.
The international spot price of copper decreased to an estimated average of $7 497 per metric ton in August from the $7 586 average in July. The year to date average price of copper up to August 2012 is $7 957 compared to $9 386 in 2011 and the average monthly change from the end of January 2012 is minus 1%. This indicates that although there was an increase in the copper price in July, the general trend thus far has been downward. The continuation of the European fiscal and financial crisis has had a deflationary effect on industrial commodities like copper. The outlook for the copper price is a gradual decline to approximately $7 000 per metric ton by the end of the year with the possibility of price increases in 2013 as the global economy is expected to improve.
Exports of copper waste for May increased by 20.2% on a monthly basis to $43.5 million from $36.2 million in April. Export statistics in general are characterized by high volatility relative to other economic data series, but the long-term relationship between the international price of copper and South African copper export volume remains strong.
Key stakeholders recently indicated that implementation of the Second-hand Goods Act had an immediate effect of deterring organized crime syndicates from committing copper theft due to the improved enforcement methods required by the legislation. However, this wait-and-see period is now over and the crime syndicates have become more sophisticated in identifying materials for theft and evading detection. The implication is that the number of copper theft incidents has fallen according to anecdotal evidence, but the quantity of stolen copper per incident has increased.
There has also been increased collaboration between SACCI members and the South African Police in providing training in copper theft prevention and in the enforcement of the Second-hand Goods Act. There is also improved sharing of information and resources in order to fight copper theft. The SAPS in particular has gone far in exploring ways to unlock synergies in this regard.
The outlook for stemming copper theft for the rest of 2012 remains positive despite the temporary setback of an increase in theft in July. Much has been made of the Second-hand Goods Act, but the positive effects of the legislation will become far more apparent as it becomes institutionally entrenched in everyday policing.
COPPER THEFT BAROMETER
Source: SACCI
COPPER PRICE AND SA EXPORTS OF COPPER WASTE & SCRAP
Source: London Metal Exchange (LME)&Trademap. Please note that export statistics have a three-month lag
Statement issued by Neren Rau, SACCI CEO, August 29 2012
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