Crucial questions need answering around lockdown

23 April 2020

The Democratic Alliance (DA) notes that there is growing and broad agreement on a gradual return to economic activity, and ahead of President Ramaphosa’s address to the nation this evening, the DA respectfully puts forward the following questions, requests, and suggestions which should be addressed in his speech. I have a virtual meeting scheduled with the President for 16:30 today, and I will put these questions to him directly. Furthermore, we have today sent the President updates to our Covid-19 response working paper, as our contribution to the national decision-making process.

1. We request clarity on the alleged statement by Prof Shabir Mahdi (of Wits University, who heads the public health subcommittee advising the President and his cabinet) revising down the expected number of SA Covid deaths to 45 000 over the next 2-3 years, from an earlier estimate of between 120 000 and 150 000 fatalities. This was reported in a TimesLive article on 21 April. We need to understand if this estimate of 45 000 deaths over 2-3 years factors in a series of lockdowns, or is the estimate before interventions. If the latter, then this revision profoundly impacts SA’s optimal response to this pandemic. A death rate of 45 000 over 2-3 years is broadly in line with SA’s current murder rate and Easter road death rate, neither of which have elicited hard lockdowns in response. Therefore, we request clarity around these alleged comments.

2. We request clarity around Prof Salim Karim’s comments reported by Rapport on Sunday, in an interview with Hanlie Retief, in which he said: “I think we’ve already reaped the benefits of the lockdown. I’m not sure how much more the lockdown can help us.” If this is the view of the government’s leading expert on the coronavirus epidemic, it is important that South Africans know how this view is guiding government’s decisions on the future implementation of a lockdown strategy.

3. We request the immediate implementation of a policy of mandatory cloth masks for all, in all public places. At least 3 free cloth masks should be provided free of charge to all those who are unable to afford masks. Assuming 40 million people require free masks, this would be 120 million masks in all, and would cost an estimated R600 million – a mere fraction of the cost to SA of a single day of hard lockdown. This is particularly important for high-density situations like on public transport and in shops, but should be mandatory in all places where people are not able to keep a 1.5 m distance.

4. We suggest that a suppress-release approach on alcohol availability should be used to relieve pressure on hospitals. This could be generalised or localised depending on circumstances.

5. We suggest that all sectors should have, and publish online, a set of social-distancing protocols in place specific to their context, before re-opening. Furthermore, all businesses should be required to complete a workplace risk assessment and mitigation form. This form must be available on the business premises and website. This will inform the public, policy makers, suppliers and customers of the risks inherent to that business and the mitigation measures which the business has put in place to deal with those risks.

6. As the economy opens up public transport will be a central nexus of human interaction. Three criteria are crucial:

Everyone on public transport to be masked.

Everyone on public transport to sanitize their hands on entrance and exit.

Public transport vehicles to be sanitized regularly.

7. We call for the immediate lifting of all activities listed in our attached document.

8. We request transparent, reliable and up-to-date reporting of key Covid-19 response data. In particular, we request national, provincial and area-specific data around cases, testing, hospital load/capacity and implementation of economic stimulus measures. We believe this to be an entirely reasonable request, given the massive sacrifice South Africans are making to slow the spread and minimise the impact of this disease. Only with this information can we know how best to respond.

Assuming that the expected fatality rate for Covid remains far above other reasons for mortality in South Africa, then a Smart Lockdown strategy (locking down only when, where and to the extent necessary, coupled with more targeted interventions – particularly a massive, rapid-response testing programme and free mandatory masks for all in public) is preferable to a series of hard lockdowns over the coming years. Indeed the President has already suggested that SA will be taking the smart lockdown route. A smart lockdown is simply not possible without accurate, up-to-date, localised, transparent data.

The following data should be available daily and to all:

Issued byJohn Steenhuisen,Leader of the Democratic Alliance, 23 April 2020