COSATU's response to the unemployment statistics
The Congress of South African Trade Unions is pleased to hear that South Africa's unemployment rate declined in the fourth quarter 2014 to 24.3%, from 25.4% in the previous quarter. The number of people actively looking for jobs fell from 5.1-million to 4.9-million (see here - PDF).
Though there was also a small decline in this more realistic expanded unemployment rate, which includes those who have stopped actively looking for work - from 35.8% to 34.6%, the total number without jobs, when you include these people is a massive 8.1 million.
While any reduction in the number without work is welcome, the federation notes the caution expressed by Kefiloe Masiteng, Statistics SA deputy director-general for social statistics, that some of the jobs created were driven by the seasonality associated with the festive season as evidenced in the sectors that created mainly "casual" jobs.
The jobs created were 56,000 in agriculture, 53,000 in construction and 50,000 in Trade, all sectors where there is an element of seasonal employment. In utilities, mining, and community and social services, there was actually combined loss of 41,000 jobs between the third and fourth quarters.
The DDG also warned that "economic growth is not coming at the levels that is able to create the jobs that are needed currently for the economy."
So it is far too early to start celebrating, especially given the crisis caused by load-shedding which has put many thousands of existing jobs in peril and is sure to slow down the rate of new investment which could create more new jobs. So the next quarter's statistics will need to be studied very closely
Ominously, on the very day the employment figures were announced, a big bank, HSBC Holdings, cut its growth forecast for South Africa this year from 2% to 1.6%, nowhere near Finance Minister Nhlanhla Nene's forecast in his mid-term budget in October that the economy probably will expand by 2.5% this year and even farther from the government's estimate that it needs growth of more than 5% percent a year to cut the unemployment rate to 14% by 2020.
So there must be no complacency in pushing forward radical, developmental economic policies to deal with the underlying, structural causes of our high unemployment - the 8thhighest level in the world.
As the federation said today in its State of the Nation Expectations Statement: "It is of critical importance that government should stimulate economic growth and job creation. This, among others, requires the government to spend and invest more, particularly in the infrastructure development programme, and in capacitating the public service and all state institutions. This runs counter to the current fiscal stance taken by Treasury, which is one of austerity, or cutbacks in real terms."
COSATU's approach to the crisis of unemployment, poverty and inequality was enshrined in the Declaration of its 11th National Congress in 2012, which called for a programme of action to drive the radical economic shift in line with the demands of the Freedom Charter, whose 60th anniversary we are celebrating this year, including:
Decisive state intervention in strategic sectors of the economy, including through strategic nationalisation and state ownership, and the use of a variety of macro-economic and other levers at the states disposal, which can be deployed to regulate and channel investment, production, consumption and trade to deliberately drive industrialisation, sustainable development, decent employment creation, and regional development, and to break historical patterns of colonial exploitation and dependence.
Radical overhaul of our macro-economic policy in line with the radical economic shift which we all agree needs to happen. To this end we will engage with our alliance partners in the run-up to the ANC Mangaung conference, on the macro-economic policy review; this requires that institutionally the Treasury, which constitutes the biggest obstacle to the government`s economic programme, needs to be urgently realigned;
A new mandate to be given to the Reserve Bank, which must be nationalised;
The National Planning Commission to be given a renewed mandate, to realign thew mandate.
Urgent steps to reverse the current investment strike and export of South African capita National Development Plan, in line with the proposed radical economic shift
Aspects of the New Growth Path to be realigned in line with the proposed new macro-economic framework.
All state owned enterprises and state development finance institutions to be given a nel.
Capital controls and measures aimed at prescribed investment, and penalising speculation.
The urgent introduction of comprehensive social security.
State intervention in strategic sectors including through nationalisation;
Measures to ensure beneficiation, such as taxes of mineral exports;
Channelling of retirement funds into productive investment;
Comprehensive land reform, and measure to ensure food security; and
The more effective deployment of all state levers to advance industrialisation and the creation of decent work on a large scale.
This strategy, which is echoed in the ANC's own policy for the "2nd Phase of the Transition", is as relevant as ever and must be vigorously pursued until we have achieved the goals of the Freedom Charter, especially:
The people shall share in the country`s wealth!
The national wealth of our country, the heritage of South Africans, shall be restored to the people!
The mineral wealth beneath the soil, the Banks and monopoly industry shall be transferred to the ownership of the people as a whole!
All other industry and trade shall be controlled to assist the wellbeing of the people!
Statement issued by Patrick Craven, COSATU national spokesperson, February 10 2015
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