State of the electricity system
Thursday, 06 January 2011: Eskom today outlined South Africa's power system status constraints over the next two to five years, the measures it is taking to ensure a secure electricity supply and the steps consumers should take to help contain demand over this difficult period.
The margin between electricity supply and demand is going to be very slim at times over the next five years, and especially over the next two years until the first units of the giant new Medupi power station come on line in late 2012 and 2013 as communicated earlier by Eskom. The first unit of the sister Kusile power station will start generating power in late 2014.
Today's information session was the first of the quarterly briefings Eskom plans over the next two years to keep customers, other stakeholders and the media up to date on the country's power supply situation.
"Eskom has resolved not to return to the disruptive load shedding, and recognises it cannot achieve this on its own. However, that resolve will be tested during the next two years," said Brian Dames, Eskom's chief executive. "As Eskom we will lead the efforts to manage the gap between supply and demand. However, we cannot overcome these challenges alone - if we are to succeed, we need the support and co-operation of all 49-million South Africans."
Unless steps are taken to address it, the gap between supply and anticipated demand is expected to lead to a shortfall of 6 Terrawatt Hours in 2011/12 and 9 Terawatt Hours in the subsequent year. This gap is equivalent to the annual electricity consumed by a large city such as Cape Town in one year, and must be addressed if the country's economic growth and social development goals are to be achieved in the short- to medium-term.
Dames detailed the steps taken to address supply challenges during the summer maintenance period when demand is low and Eskom schedules power station maintenance to ensure reliable power supply during the high-demand winter months.
Additional challenges this year were the need to take one of Koeberg's two units out of service in December for 30 to 40 days for repairs, and the early and heavy rains which have affected coal handling and supply and reduced efficiency at some power stations. Eskom has sufficient coal stocks at it power stations.
"The loss of half of Koeberg's generating capacity reduced our flexibility to do maintenance at our coal-fired power stations, and some maintenance has had to be postponed. This in turn increases the risk of unplanned outages at these stations."
Eskom has also implemented steps to ensure maximum performance at all power stations, to improve coal handling and processing and to resolve the coal quality issues it has raised with suppliers.
"We have already enlisted the support of our largest industrial customers. If all other consumers give us the same co-operation in reducing demand, we will be able to provide everyone with enough power to keep the lights on over this period," Dames said.
Dames stressed that the challenging period is during the next five years, and particularly in 2011 and 2012 until additional generation capacity from the new build programme starts to come on line in 2012/3.
Eskom has published measures that consumers, from industries to households, can take to reduce demand and introduce energy efficiency. These include the use of energy efficient lights and machinery, installing solar power for household geysers, and moving consumption to off-peak periods. These measures are available on the Eskom website (www.eskom.co.za).
"We are looking at innovative ways to reduce or reschedule demand. But for the next two years our basic message is going to be - If you are not using it, switch it off." Dames said. "Consumers do not appreciate how much power is used by machinery, air conditioning units and domestic appliances left on in standby mode."
"We have launched a programme of engagement with all our stakeholders on the constraints facing the country. For the next two years we commit to communicating with all our stakeholders on the status of the power system on a quarterly basis," Dames said.
Statement issued by Eskom spokesperson Hilary Joffe, January 6 2011
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