#WhatSACanBe: Latest IRR data shows cautious optimism, common ground
12 October 2024
Political changes in South Africa have sparked cautious optimism about the prospect of people's lives improving, with the Government of National Unity (GNU) enjoying substantial goodwill in a country with positive race relations and shared aspirations for economic growth.
Together, these create a unique opportunity for cohesive, outcomes-based governance in the current democratic term. These are the key findings of the latest IRR opinion polling, conducted in September and October, and published this morning. (A link to the full presentation is included below.)
The results were published in an online presentation today by IRR head of strategic communications Hermann Pretorius.
The data shows that more South Africans than before are cautiously optimistic about life in South Africa getting better, with 48% of people holding the position that their lives will be better five years from today, compared to 25% thinking the opposite. This is a telling inversion of responses in the past. In 2022, only 34% of people had a positive outlook on the five years ahead, where 44% believed things would get worse. On whether life was better, the same or worse than five years earlier, the IRR’s 2022 polling found 54% saying “worse”, while in 2024, this number is down to 43%.
Says Pretorius: “In these shifts, we see the likely consequences of political changes, most notably the ANC’s losing its majority and the formation of the GNU, allowing ordinary people to believe that things have changed enough to put the socio-economic stagnation and decline of the last two decades behind us. This hope should sharpen the minds of the parties in the GNU, impressing on them the unique opportunity they have as a collective to implement substantive reforms that have proved capable of delivering improved lives and livelihoods to decent, hard-working people – people who see other South Africans from communities different from theirs not as enemies, but as equal partners in the shared success of our country.”
The GNU enjoys notable if brittle political dominance at the moment, with its member parties attracting growing support in contrast to the declines for parties beyond the government, and gaining a marginal edge on favourability. Yet, this should not allow the GNU parties to be complacent. The goodwill among South Africans towards this project of collaborative government is notable, but not absolute. The so-called Progressive Alliance commands enough current political standing to challenge the GNU’s dominance should the government, scaffolded primarily on the ANC-DA-IFP relationship, fail to deliver real reforms that put economic growth and wealth creation rather than transformation and wealth extraction at the heart of socio-economic policy for all.
On race relations, the picture that emerges from the data is markedly positive. A majority of South Africans believe that race relations have improved in the country over the last three decades, and by a two-to-one majority, South Africans indicate a positive experience of race relations – 63% of people saying they have not personally experienced racism over the last five years.
Furthermore, 67% of South Africans consider that “talk of racism and colonialism is by politicians who are trying to find excuses for their own failures”. Yet, most expressive of the overwhelming decency of South Africans on the issue is that 87% of people believe that the different races need each other for progress and that there should be full opportunity for all.
On national priorities, continuing a multi-year pattern, the issue of job creation ranks number one for all South Africans, followed by the abuse of women and children, crime, corruption, loadshedding, illegal immigration, and education. Other hot-button issues that are often weaponised for political gain, like racism and land, rank among the lowest priorities.
Says Pretorius: “We see a striking consensus on how the key priority of jobs should be tackled by the GNU. Asked whether the government should focus on job creation or social grants, 83% of South Africans say the former. Asked what the best way to create jobs is, 63% of people support the statement that ‘the government must remove barriers to economic growth and allow businesses to create jobs’.
“On how empowerment policies should operate to reinforce upwards socio-economic mobility alongside job creation, 81% prefer choice-based voucher programmes for healthcare, education, and housing, based on a means test rather than race, to the current empowerment policies of BEE and Affirmative Action. South Africans want to choose their own healthcare for their families, education for their kids, and housing options. This is not a nation that wants the almost century-long treatment of its people as subjects with interests rather than citizens with aspirations to go on.
“Collectively, the data illustrate the extent to which the current moment is unique in aligning hope of a better life, political breathing room for the GNU, the soundness of race relations, and a broad consensus on achieving upward socio-economic mobility. The rewards available to those political parties that can deliver on this common-ground, pro-growth agenda would be immense. Yet, the failure to deliver would damn the GNU and its constituent parties to South Africans’ harsh electoral judgement. The pro-growth forces of this country stand ready to bring about the hoped-for change – the question is now whether the political will to get back to the basics of growth can match this unique moment.”
Read the full presentation in PDF format here.
Issued by Hermann Pretorius, IRR Head of Strategic Communications, 11 November 2024
