Zwelinzima Vavi, general secretary of the Congress of SA Trade Unions, is not a buffoon like ANCYL president Julius Malema, but they are both rather muddled chaps.

Vavi for example counts his chickens before they are hatched. To judge by his superior airs, and blundering arrogance, he is almost, not quite, South Africa's president. According to City Press (September 27 2009), he behaves already "as if he is President Vavi." The newspaper says that at Cosatu's congress in September, "he threw his hat into the political ring". City Press thinks he "would like the presidency". Vavi is reported as saying that when he quits Cosatu and enters politics, he does not want a cabinet job.

Is he after something higher? It can't be the secretary general-ship of the ANC, where Gwede Mantashe (SACP chairman) is installed, because the street talk is that deputy minister of Police, Fikile Mbalula, wants the job for himself. Mbalula denies this furiously.

If Vavi aspires to become ANC/South African president, he is not alone. The story is that Blade Nzimande, SACP general Secretary and newly appointed Minister of Higher Education, also has his eye on the position. He denies it, of course, but politicians' denials usually are taken with a pinch of salt. Vavi has raised the question of "our cadres" in public office who think they have a right to R1m cars and weeks in five star hotels. If ANC cadres, why not also SACP cadres? Among those who think they have a right to the "obscene perk" of a R1m car is Nzimande. Why pick on Blade in this way unless he is a contestant for a top job that Vavi wants?

Anyway, if hats are being thrown into the ring now, then Jacob Zuma must know that his own shelf life as president is guaranteed only to 2012 (at best) when the ANC either confirms him as president, or ousts him in the way it ousted Mbeki, coldly, clinically, just by voting. Vavi of course has been insulting about Zuma for a few years now, so when he demands that Zuma be given a second term as president it is not because his heart has warmed to Zuma, but because he does not want Zuma displaced by someone who will rearrange the Left's newly-created structure of ambitions. Succession is the name of the new game.

There is a third possible candidate in the presidential field: Jacob Zuma has been telling Julius Malema that he is "a leader in the making" and someone who would be worthy of inheriting the ANC. At ceremonies organised by the ANCYL, Malema has been introduced as "president," alongside Zuma. Malema, of course, is president of the ANCYL, but when he stands next to Zuma, and the crowd bays "president" - well, the word undergoes a qualitative, more embracing meaning. Zuma after all said older ANC leaders were "happy" to leave the party to leaders like Malema - "Here you have a leader in the making." (Pretoria News October 26 2009).

Malema is dumb enough to take Zuma's silver words at their face value, but if he is told ANC elders are "happy" with him, why not be "happy" with himself? Many people live on their illusions, and when one illusion dies, the smart comrades create a new one.

Back to Vavi: He is articulate to a point where his addresses to conferences and statements to the media are not occasional, carefully considered statements, but a sort of conveyor belt, a sense of perpetual motion. The trouble is that Vavi, who is also highly literate, sometimes seems to contradict what he says in one part of an address with what he says in another part. Take the speech he delivered to the SAMWU on November 3. For years, Vavi blasted the Mbeki government for its market-friendly economic policies and "failures." Now he says the country faces its "greatest economic crisis ever," and the Zuma government is not handling it well. Unemployment alone is staggering; South Africa is the most unequal country in the world.

In other words, South Africa was better off under Mbeki. Vavi says so himself: "Since 1994 we have made much progress in advancing the NDR (National Democratic Revolution). We have built the foundation of a new society by enshrining basic human and democratic rights...ANC governments have introduced laws to protect workers...set minimum wages...and introduced affirmative action...In 1966, only 3 million people had access to social grants. Today, 13 million...receive social grants." People with access to electricity increased from 58% to 80%; those with access to running water from 62% to 88%, etc.

Take a bow, Thabo. In 1996 you brought in the 1996 Project which has been the target of Cosatu and the SACP for12 years. Now suddenly Vavi thinks the 1996 Project did quite well. But is Vavi going to join Cope? Not likely. Look where his affinity lies now: "Marxism is a truthful, timeless and enduring philosophy. (Socialists) must build the momentum towards socialism, as captured by the SACP slogan: Socialism is the Future - Build it Now! Our challenge is building a socialist movement within which the SACP is the vanguard and anchor. Cosatu must ask itself whether it is doing enough to build and support the SACP and unfortunately we are found wanting....Clearly we are not doing enough to convert our members into staunch socialists who are active in the SACP."

In other words, because Cosatu is a trade union federation and cannot enter the party political arena, it must turn to the SACP as its party. If Vavi does indeed step down as Cosatu general secretary, his possible destination is the SACP. Could Vavi perhaps become the SACP's nominee for the presidency? The SACP could hardly nominate one of its own leaders, like Blade Nzimande, because South Africa is not ready yet for a communist president. In any case, Vavi has knifed Nzimande as one of the waBenzi (the R1m Merc and BMW owners).

Also, Vavi is a crusader against corruption. This is why he offered an explanation to the public for the doubling of his salary to R500,000 a year. He "explained": "My salary doubled because we were losing all the policy capacity in the federation. The economists and accountants were all gone, because if you keep the salary at R250,000, it means the economists can't make those sacrifices for years and years.  They lose out." After you have done the daily crossword, try your hand at explaining this explanation. If we were not in a credit crunch there would be a free cruise to the Barbados in this for the winner.

So who will it be for president? Malema? Nzimande? Vavi? Oh, I almost forgot - Zuma. Actually my betting is on Zuma. But it's a fun game anyway, guessing at the presidency - if it were not so critical for South Africa's future.

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