I'm not surprised by President Jacob Zuma's endorsement of Malema. My view is that the President has just entered the successiion debate in style.
In my earlier article titled "The battle for the belly of ANC", I made it clear that COSATU and SACP will monopolize the ANC's top six (6). This meaning: giving Zuma just one term.
This with the understanding that Vavi has already called for JZ to go for the second term, as early as 2009 for 2012 elections. JZ was right to say that this premature lobbying is smelling of funny agendas.
COSATU is leading the public service strikes and SACP is leading the community unrest. No matter how much Vavi say that Zuma must go for the second term, by mid 2011 people would have lost confidence in Zuma if the demonstrations continue. This would give SACP and COSATU a chance to make an about turn claiming that they did support JZ, however circumstances no longer allow for it.
Vavi and Nzimande's plan is far too obvious. They supported JZ for a reason and that may just pay off in 2012.
The question is, will Zuma be recalled should say VAVI or NZIMANDE take the presidency.
The possibility of Nzimande or Vavi taking over the Presidency is more real than many think. Note that the alliance partners are currently playing power plays and ensuring that their people are in charge of the economy, so that when they takeover government the gap between the ANC government and their own government is closed in time. Meaning, they will be building on the successes that their deployees who are currently in government have achieved.
Once the ministries are aligned and their people are positioned the way they want and given the power they needed them to be given, they will no longer be apologetic.
Now, JZ needs Julius Malema badly. Imagine if the ANC youth league worked with COSATU and SACP probably supported by Kgalema Motlanthe. It would be the same scenario when the ANCYL worked with both SACP and COSATU in support of JZ while Mbeki was president.
That must scare Zuma to death. JZ has no choice but to support Julius Malema even if he has to lie to him and say Malema is good enough to lead ANC, knowing very well that that can never be the case.
In short, the succession debate is on in the ANC and Malema is the most powerful in the picture. Should Malema go with JZ, then JZ will win, should he go with SACP and COSATU then SACP and COSATU will win. The ANC youth league is therefore in the centre stage.
JZ can never completely trust COSATU and SACP, but he can trust the ANCYL should he play his cards correctly. A deteriorating relationship between JZ and Malema is completely undesirable for JZ and he has taken the first step in ensuring that his second term is secured.
The question is, can he really sustain a relation with the loose cannon. After stroking Malema's ego, Malema may go way out of line.
The endorsement of Malema by JZ is not genuine, but is a calculated political move. It is unfortunate that someone like Malema has suddenly become so important in the ANC succession.
Sefu Sekgala is Cope youth movement Tshwane regional treasurer and regional Chairperson of Cope business and professionals, he writes here in his personal capacity.
Click here to sign up to receive our free daily headline email newsletter
