Speech Delivered by the Minister of Basic Education, Mrs Angie Motshekga, MP, at the Announcement of the 2015 NSC Examinations Results at Vodaworld, Johannesburg, 05 January 2016

Deputy Minister: the Honourable Mr Enver Surty

Honourable Chairperson and Members of the Basic Education Portfolio Committee

Honourable Chairperson and Members of the Select Committee on Education and Recreation

Members of the Executive Councils

Basic Education Director-General and Heads of Education Departments

Representatives of Education Formations and Stakeholders

Top Performing Learners and their Parents and Grandparents

Ladies and Gentlemen

Fellow South Africans

Good evening!

Today, we gather here to announce the results of the Class of 2015. The National Senior Certificate (NSC) examinations are a critical summative assessment in the schooling system. These national assessments have developed in leaps and bounds since the first NSC examinations were written in 1996. We can safely say these assessments have positioned the basic education sector as a custodian of high educational standards.

Over the years, the Quality Assurance Council, UMALUSI has confirmed these assessments as a beacon of administrative rigour and exemplar of resilience. The NSC results announcement not only signifies the culmination of thirteen years of formal schooling (including Grade R), but the NSC is seen by many as a barometer of the health of the basic education sector.

Aristotle, a Greek philosopher and an eminent scholar, once said:

“Excellence is an art won by training and habituation. We do not act rightly because we have virtue or excellence, but we rather have those because we have acted rightly. We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act but a habit”.

Fellow South Africans, I hereby invoke Aristotle precisely because the basic education sector is about excellence and perpetual acts of performing good habits. Basic education is not a sprint but a marathon. Allow me to dispel the myth that the basic education sector is judged narrowly reported on the outcomes of the National Senior Certificate examinations. In this regard, we judge the overall performance of the system using the constitutional principles of Access, Redress, Equity, as well as systematic imperatives such as Efficiency and Quality.

Access, Redress & Equity

The Class of 2015 has recorded the highest enrolment of Grade 12 learners in the history of the basic education system in South Africa. The total number of candidates who registered for the November 2015 NSC examinations was 799 306; written by 667 925 full time candidates and 131 381 part time candidates. This is 110 thousand candidates more than those enrolled for the 2014 NSC examinations.

This is one of the positive indicators yet that we are addressing the conundrum of retention / dropout rates – thus increasing access to quality education. The other important indicators that demonstrate marked improvement in access, redress and equity include:

-  the percentage of five year-olds attending educational institutions at Grade R is 87.2%;

-  the Apparent Intake Rate (AIR) to Grade 1 is 101.4%;

-  ‎the percentage of fourteen (14) to eighteen (18) year-olds attending educational institutions is 90.7%;

-  the percentage of five (5) year-olds children with disabilities attending educational institutions is 83.9%;

-  seven (7) to fifteen (15) year-olds children with disabilities attending educational institutions is 93.4%;

-  The number of learners who benefit from the National School Nutrition Programme is 9.2 million learners;

-  The percentage of learners who benefit from pro-poor policy package, such as “no fee” schools is 80%.

Since Umalusi has already indicated that the percentage pass this year has dropped in terms of percentage passes, this gives us an opportunity to give the nation more information on exactly what are the latest developments in the sector, so as to draw the nation’s attention on progress and challenges we all have to jointly tackle.

One of the key areas in the year 2015, was to encourage provinces to progress or condone learners who have repeated Grade 11 more than once, who are over-aged and give them extra support to sit for Grade 12 NSC examinations, or allow them to modularise their examinations – meaning that they write part of the examinations in November 2015, and the rest in June 2016.

Consequently, in 2015 we saw the largest number progressed learners since the policy was promulgated in 2013. An analysis of the raw data on progressed learners paints an extremely interesting picture, in particular this year. For the Class of 2015, we had 65 671 progressed learners, which was 9.8% of the total number of full-time candidates registered for the 201 NSC examinations.

Of these progressed learners that wrote the examinations, 22 060 passed the 2015 NSC examinations, which represents 37.6 % of all progressed learners. Some 3 297 progressed learners obtained Bachelor passes, meaning these would-be-high-school dropouts now have the opportunity to go to University. 8 473 obtained Diploma passes; and some 10 264 obtained Higher Certificate passes.

There are a total of 1 081 distinctions attained by progressed learners, and these range from a total of 40 in Mathematics, to 30 in Physical Science, and 31 in Accounting. These are the often difficult gateway subjects.

If on the other hand we extrapolate the most reliable data on progressed learners submitted by 2 275 public schools, the picture becomes even more interesting. Specifically in these 2 275 schools, a 75.3% pass rate was achieved in 2014; which compares favourably to 76.6% in 2015. The DBE will conduct a more detailed analysis on the effects of progressed learners on the overall NSC results. At this stage we can say with some semblance of confidence that the progressed learners did not contribute substantively in the drop of the NSC pass overall rate.

We have learned a lot from this exercise and working with provinces, we will continue to strengthen and provide support for progressed learners. Unfortunately because of time constraints, I am unable to give you a full picture of lessons learned. However amongst others, is a plan to strengthen our psycho-social services, differentiated teaching and curriculum pathways, remedial work, screening and testing for both health, academic and psychological needs. We will soon give more details on our work in these areas. In 2016, having taken into account the lessons learnt in the implementation of the policy on progressed learners, we have revised the policy and came up with stringent measures that must be met before learners can be progressed within the FET Band. These include:

-  a pass rate of a minimum of four (4) subjects (one of which should be the Language of Learning and Teaching);

-  they must meet the school-based assessment requirements for all subjects;

-  they must have attended school regularly; and

-  the parent / guardian must provide support to the learner as determined by the school and the department.

I wish to congratulate North West for the highest percentage pass rate of progressed learners at 59.9%; followed by Free State at 50.9%; third was KwaZulu Natal at 47%. We implore the Eastern Cape and Limpopo to do more to assist progressed learners, as these two provinces achieved 26.8% for Limpopo and 22.4 for the Eastern Cape. We thank all provinces for the extra support they had given to these learners, because some of them could have fallen through the cracks of the system due to their age.

CAPS is a shorthand for Quality Education

Fellow South Africans, the Class of 2015 is the second cohort to write the National Senior Certificate (NSC) examination that is aligned with our internationally benchmarked National Curriculum and Assessment Policy Statement (CAPS) curriculum. This cohort has benefited from the maturity of the system garnered over the last seven years. CAPS is a high knowledge curriculum. It places a premium on cognitive demands from learners. CAPS emphasises subject content and assessment as the centrepiece of curriculum implementation.

From 2014, examiners progressively increased the level of cognitive demands in setting the NSC examination question papers. This is prescribed in the Curriculum and Assessment Policy Statement. The learners, teachers, markers, chief makers, internal moderators, subject analysts, and curriculum specialists, observed that this year's question papers were different from those of the previous years. ‎We have taken a conscious decision to raise the standard and to improve the quality of our education, consistent with the objectives of the CAPS curriculum.

Learners were expected to deal with real life challenges, such as El Nino and La Nina in relation to their impact on productivity and other aspects of human life. In the History papers, learners had to answer a set of questions on, “why did members of BRICS decide to establish a Development Bank in 2014?". In Mathematics, aspects of Euclidean Geometry were integrated into Algebra and Trigonometric using one of the seven principles of the National Curriculum Statement, which is about integration in a subject as well as from one subject to the other.

It is evident that teachers and learners‎ must follow current developments and use contemporary information in the classroom to prepare for the end of the year Exams.

The 2015 NSC examination question papers bear the true hallmark of the CAPS curriculum underpinning the provision of quality education, which the South African nation has been yearning for all these years. In future, learners will be expected to use their analytical and critical thinking skills, problem solving and innovation.

As already stated the sector is geared to continue to produce learners with knowledge and skills to deal with current and future challenges as well as interact with their environment effectively.

2015 NSC Results: “Free, Fair and Credible.”

Fellow South Africans, I am also glad to announce that the Quality Assurance Council, UMALUSI, which plays a critical role in protecting the integrity of the National Senior Certificate examination, has after rigorous verification of all examination processes declared the 2015 NSC examinations as, “free, fair and credible.” During the standardisation meeting which was held on 23 December 2015, UMALUSI commended the Department of Basic Education for implementing a world class curriculum, and for having presented a comprehensive evidence-based report, as well as having drastically reduced irregularities especially involving mass copying.

Results of the Class of 2015 Learners with Special Needs Category

We strongly believe that an Inclusive Education system makes an immense contribution towards an inclusive economy to serve an inclusive society. We have for the past few years included learners with special education needs in tracking learner performance in the NSC, including Annual National Assessment.

The number of learners who wrote increased from 1 320 in 2014, to 1 691 in 2015. The number of Bachelor passes moved from 308 in 2014, to 443 in 2015. Diploma passes increased from 637 in 2014 to 733 in 2015. Higher Certificate passes also moved from 104 in 2014 to 213 in 2015. NSC achievements dropped from 74 in 2014 to 2 in 2015. Gauteng province is leading in this regard by increasing their Bachelor achievements from 203 in 2014 to 207 in 2015. KwaZulu Natal takes the second spot by having increased their Bachelor achievements from 20 in 2014 to153 in 2015. Our efforts of creating an inclusive economy to serve an inclusive society are showing good progress.

Results of the Class of 2015: Quintile Ranking Category

In the 2015 NSC results, the poverty ranking of schools in terms quintile 1-5 revealed the following interesting trends. The NSC passes for quintiles 1 to 3 combined (“no fee” schools) increased from 199 505 in 2014 to 280 370 in 2015 – a 40.5% increase. The NSC passes for quintiles 4 and 5 combined increased from 106 315 in 2014 to 151 376 in 2015 – a 29.8%increase.

Within these passes, the number of NSC Bachelor passes for quintile 1 to 3 schools combined increased from 56 731 in 2014 to 84 038 in 2015 – 32.5%; while the Bachelor passes for quintile 4 and 5 schools combined increased from 50 674 in 2014 to 73 810 in 2015 – 45.7%.

Quintile 1-3 (“no fee”) schools combined have produced more passes than quintile 4 and 5 schools combined. More gratifying is the fact that quintile 1-3 (“no fee”) schools combined produced more Bachelor passes in terms of learner numbers, thus helping to close the gap between schools serving poor communities and schools serving more affluent communities.

Results of the Class of 2015: Districts’ Performance

Districts are an important support mechanism to schools, and their continued growth in performance is closely monitored at provincial and national levels.

In 2015, 59 of the 81 districts attained a pass rate of 60% and above; and 29 of them achieved a pass rate of 80% and above. The district that achieved the highest pass rate was Sedibeng East from Gauteng with 90.4%, followed by Gauteng West with 90.2%; Overberg and West Coast in Western Cape, with 89.7% and 88.9% respectively; Cape Town Metropole Central in the Western Cape and Johannesburg South in Gauteng both at 87.6% are tied at fifth; seventh are Ekurhuleni North and Tshwane South (both in Gauteng) with 86.8%; ninth is Johannesburg West in Gauteng at 86.7%; and the tenth is Bojanala Platinum in North West with 85.3%.

We congratulate Sedibeng East District for being the top district in the country in 2015 and for consistently being a top performer with achievement rates above 90%.

Other noteworthy top performing districts in their provinces are: Cradock (Eastern Cape) 71.6%; Umlazi (KZN) 72.6%; Vhembe (Limpopo) 74.7%; Namaqua (Northern Cape) 76.5%; Ehlanzeni District (Mpumalanga) 82.4%.

There were 8 districts that performed below 50%. Seven of these districts are in the Eastern Cape, and one from KwaZulu-Natal. Finally, there are 14 districts that performed between 50 and 59.9%; two of these are Limpopo, four in KZN, and eight in the Eastern Cape.

Results of the Class of 2015: Provinces

Key interventions focused on improving performance in key gateway subjects and supporting underperforming schools and their principals. These initiatives have benefitted learners. The provincial results will be presented in ascending order in different categories.

But before we can provide the results achieved by provinces with the progressed learners included, it is important to give a glimpse of what provinces achieved with the exclusion of progressed learners:

KwaZulu Natal with 61.6%; Eastern Cape with 62.2%; Limpopo with 71.7%; Northern Cape 77.2%; Mpumalanga with 82.1%; North West with 84.0%; Gauteng with 85.9%; Free State with 87.7%; and Western Cape at 88.0%.

With the progressed learners, the following provinces achieved below 70%:

- Eastern Cape achieved 56.8 % dropping from 65.4% in 2014. Eastern Cape had87 090 candidates in total.

- KwaZulu-Natal achieved 60.7%. The pass rate decreased by 9% from 2014, but the province has produced the second largest number of Bachelor passes at 34 751. KwaZulu Natal had 162 658 candidates in total.

- Limpopo achieved 65.9%, down from 72.9% in 2014. Limpopo had 101 575candidates in total.

- Northern Cape achieved 69.4%, down from 76.4% in 2014. Northern Cape had11 623 candidates in total.

Only one province achieved in the 70% range (with progressed learners included), and that province is –

- Mpumalanga, which achieved 78.6%, almost the same pass rate achieved in 2014. Mpumalanga had 54 980 candidates in total.

The following provinces achieved above 80% (with progressed learners included), and with only marginal differences to 2014, should be commended:

- North West achieved 81.5%. North West had 33 283 candidates in total.

- Free State achieved 81.6%. Free State had 31 161 candidates in total.

- Gauteng achieved 84.2%. We need to congratulate Gauteng for producing the largest number of Bachelor passes at 38 760. Gauteng had 108 442 candidates in total. Well done to MEC Lesufi and his team!

The top performing province for 2015 is the Western Cape, which achieved 84.7%, up from 82.2% in 2014 – an improvement of 2.5%. Western Cape had 53 721 candidates in total, out of which 22 739 are Bachelor passes. Well done to MEC Schafer and her team!

It must be noted that the three most rural provinces i.e., KwaZulu Natal, Limpopo and Eastern Cape, had registered 200 945, 118 755, and 109 052, respectively. This gives a combined total of 428 752 candidates contribution towards the overall national cohort of 799 306. The total number of registered candidates in the three rural provinces represents 53.6% of total 2015 NSC national cohort.

215 182 candidates from KZN, Limpopo and Eastern Cape obtained NSC passes, which signals that 213 570 (49.8%) of the candidates failed. The number of candidates who failed in these provinces represents the 9% drop from the 2014 NSC results in KZN; 8.6% drop from the 2014 NSC results in the Eastern Cape; and 7% drop from the 2014 NSC results in Limpopo.

Clearly, we must pay particular attention to KZN, Limpopo and Eastern Cape if we want to improve the overall NSC national picture. If we don’t do this, our basic education outputs and outcomes may not improve to the extent necessary.

Results of the Class of 2015: Overall

This brings us to the 2015 NSC overall results. For the past four years, the NSC pass rate has been above 70%. The Class of 2015 must be commended for maintaining this trend. They are the largest cohort in the history of basic education in the country.

Ladies and Gentlemen, the 2015 NSC overall pass rate stands at 70.7%, which represents 455 825 candidates who have passed the 2015 NSC Examinations, the largest in history. This represents an increase of 51 952 candidates from those who passed in 2014. The national pass rate without progressed learners would have been 74.1%.

Well done to the Class of 2015!

The increase in the number of learners qualifying for admission to Bachelor Studies, increased from 150 737 in 2014 to 166 263 in 2015.

The performances in Mathematics and Physical Science, which are gateway subjects, have also shown an increase in the number of passes, although the pass percentage in these subjects has decreased. The number of learners passing Mathematics has increased from 120 523 in 2014 to129 481 in 2015; while the number of learners passing Physical Science has increased from 103 348 in 2014 to 113 121 in 2015.

In 2015 there were 3 711 more distinctions achieved by learners than in 2014. In 2014, 157 913distinctions were achieved, whereas in 2015 161 624 distinctions were achieved. In the 12 key subjects (including Mathematics, Physical Science, Accounting, among others) the total number of distinctions increased from 59 981 in 2014 to 63 348 in 2015.

90 027 girls compared to 76 236 boys obtained Bachelor passes during the 2015 NSC Examination.

Overall there were 243 108 girls compared to 212 717 boys who obtained NSC passes.

Conclusion

Second Chance Matric Programme

We have a special plea to all learners who didn’t succeed. This is not the end of the world. We have a special intervention to assist all of you. The Second Chance Matric Programme is intended to provide support to learners who have not been able to meet the requirements of the National Senior Certificate by increasing learner retention. The categories of learners who will be covered are those learners who qualify to write Supplementary Examinations for a maximum of two subjects, progressed learners who pursue multiple opportunities to complete the NSC, and learners who failed to meet the requirements of the NSC in 2015. We will officially unveil the full details of this programme tomorrow.

I thank you.

Statement issued by Angie Motshekga, Shadow Ministter of Basic Education, 5 January 2016