Mining situation becoming serious: Government cannot sit on its hands
News that mining output in February fell 14% compared to a year ago shows that the situation in the mining industry is serious. It is unlikely to get much better until the government ends its regulatory paralysis and starts acting quickly to reverse some of the mistakes it has made in mining policy.
Conservative modelling suggests that a 3% to 4% growth rate in the mining sector would create 100 000 more jobs - the industry already employs half a million people. But this growth is looking unlikely and the resultant foregone investment will cost jobs. This is a dear price to pay for something which could be mitigated with governance planning and foresight.
Promised revisions of the legislation governing mining, the Mineral and Petroleum Resources Development Act (MPRDA), and government threats to impose more burdens on mining companies through a tougher mining charter are the backdrop to South African mining's endemic problems with anundisciplined labour force. These problems came to the forefront again during the recent strikes by platinum miners. Implats lost 120 000 ounces of platinum production and R2.4 billion in revenue.
Safety stoppages that are wielded as a blunt instrument have also had a massive effect on production and official promises to improve the situation have so far not been realised.
Government appears to be dragging its feet on reforms to legislation and the charter while it waits for policy direction from Luthuli House, which may only decide what it wants to do at the end of this year. If the industry continues in policy uncertainty until then, particularly with the threat of new tax and performance burdens being directed at the industry, output will either stagnate or continue to fall.