Most young South Africans feel the ANC decision to expel Julius Malema is justified
Following Wednesday's decision by the ANC's National Disciplinary Committee to expel Julius Malema, TNS South Africa, in conjunction with FSMS, conducted a short mobile survey yesterday and today amongst FSMS's 300 000 plus registered users. In 16 hours, 898 responses were received.
The survey, which skews towards younger people (53% are under the age of 40), showed that 72% of people felt that the sentence was justified:
1. Some people feel that the ANC's Disciplinary Committee has been too harsh on Julius Malema but others feel it is justified. How about you?
a. Too harsh - 28%
b. Justified - 72%
This compares with the 70% of people who felt that the original sentence of five years' suspension was justified in November 2011 when a similar survey was conducted immediately after the conviction and sentence was announced.
The figure of 72% drops to 68% for those aged under 24 years and rises to 89% for those aged 40 years and over, much in line with the previous survey. Males were less happy with 32% feeling the sentence is too harsh compared with 20% of females. Amongst people whose home language is English or Afrikaans, 90% felt that the sentence was justified.
Amongst all the other language groups, this figure dropped to 69%. Amongst those for whom Sepedi is their home language, this fell to a low of 56% with 44% feeling that it is too harsh - much lower than the 57% who felt it was too harsh in the previous study. It is clear that attitudes even amongst this language group have hardened significantly.
A second question, which has been used by TNS in previous surveys of metro adults, was posed:
2. Overall, do you support what Julius Malema says and does or not?
a. Support - 24%
b. Do not support - 70%
c. Don't know - 6%
The figure of 24% contrasts with the 29% noted in the previous study and the 25% noted in a national study conducted in early September 2011 (filtered on the same age groups).
A third question was also posed:
3. Do you feel that Julius Malema should form his own party, try to influence the ANC from outside or stay out of politics?
a. Form new party - 11% (compared with 33% in the previous study)
b. Try to influence the ANC from outside - 23%
c. Stay out of politics - 56%
d. No response - 10%
As age rises, people are more likely to say that Julius Malema should stay out of politics (79% of those over 40) as are females (68%). For those for whom Sepedi is their home language, 15% feel he should form a new party, 32% feel he should try to influence from the outside and 53% feel he should stay out of politics.
Our take out
Even amongst younger people, the vast majority feel that Julius Malema's sentence is justified - this figure would be even higher if one looks at a more representative age profile. The views of Sepedi speakers have also hardened significantly, shifting to an overall negative
The majority view is that Julius Malema's day in politics is over.
Technical note
The study was conducted amongst a sample of 898 people aged 16 and older (461 blacks and 652 people of other race groups - 126 people did not volunteer their home language) via mobile phone self-completion interviews in South Africa. The universe for the study consisted of over 300,000 mobile phone users who make use of the FSMS service. The sample achieved consisted of a broad spread of demographics across race, gender, age and area, but skewed towards 19 to 30 year olds and is thus more representative of the opinions of South African youth. The study was conducted by TNS South Africa in conjunction with FSMS as part of their ongoing research into current social and political issues and was funded jointly by TNS and FSMS.
Statement issued by Neil Higgs, TNS South Africa, March 1 2012
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