Outcome of local election in Nelson Mandela Bay still in the balance

With support from about four in every ten (43.4%) eligible voters, the ANC was leading the local government election race in Nelson Mandela Bay Metro (NMBM) towards the end of 2015. The DA followed at 31.8% of the vote, with the UDM at 2.1% and other parties (together) at 7.4%. However, 15.3% indicated at that stage that they had not yet made up their minds which party to vote for!

These were some of the findings of a poll undertaken by market and opinion research company Ipsos in September and October 2015 in NMBM on behalf of the Forum for Public Dialogue (FPD). A total of 974 interviews were conducted with randomly selected eligible voters in the metro municipality.[1] Fieldworkers checked that respondents were in possession of green bar-coded South African ID Books and they were asked whether they wanted to vote in the 2016 local government elections.

Not all eligible voters will turn out to vote and a total of 79% indicated that they wanted to vote; this included 81.2% of eligible male voters and 76.9% of eligible female voters. Older voters are more likely to turn out to vote, confirming that it is an important issue to try and convince younger voters to register and turn out to vote on the actual election day:

Eligible white voters are also far less likely to vote in the election with scarcely more than six in every ten indicating that they want to vote in the election:

In the months prior to the election it will thus be up to all the political parties to work at convincing younger people and women of all population groups and white people of all age groups to register and vote on election day – as a higher voter turnout will have a profound influence on the final election result.

In keeping with major election issues identified by voters all over the country, residents of NMBM also put unemployment at the top of their wish-list of issues that need attention. The question was asked as follows: “What are you mainly unsatisfied about with the current ANC-led government in NMBM”

Leadership issues were also addressed with the question: “Which leader would you prefer to lead the NMBM?”

Technical detail

A total of 974 personal face-to-face interviews were conducted with randomly selected adult South Africans living in the NMBM area. The interviews were done in the homes and home languages of respondents. Trained quantitative fieldworkers from all population groups were responsible for the interviewing, which took place from 17 September to 29 October 2015. This methodology ensured that the results are representative of the views of the universe at that time and that findings can be weighted and projected to the universe – i.e. eligible voters in Port Elizabeth 18 years and older.

Interviews were conducted using CAPI (Computer Assisted Personal Interviewing) and all results were collated and analysed in an aggregate format to protect the identity and confidentiality of respondents.

All sample surveys are subject to a margin of error, determined by sample size, sampling methodology and response rate. The margin of error for the sample as a whole at a 95% confidence level is a maximum of 3.14%.

About Forum for Public Dialogue

Our Mission

Question. Research. Debate. Decide.

Independent research and analysis for a better South Africa.

Who We Are

The Forum for Public Dialogue (FPD) was established in 2012, inspired by the realisation that South Africa faces complex political and socioeconomic problems and that solutions must be informed by research and innovation. Decision-makers, from citizens to national leaders, require facts, analysis and well-thought-out alternatives if they are to make informed choices about political leadership, socioeconomic policies and good governance. The FPD selects and implements high-impact research that promotes strong democratic institutions, political pluralism and a robust competition of ideas.

The FPD is an independent, not-for-profit, Section 21 think tank with no political affiliation. We research, popularise and defend our findings and ideas in public. The FPD is not shy about challenging what we deem perilous to South Africa’s democracy and development. We support social, political and economic causes which we believe strengthen South Africa’s democracy.

About Ipsos

Ipsos is an independent market research company controlled and managed by research professionals. Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos has grown into a worldwide research group with a strong presence in all key markets. Ipsos ranks third in the global research industry.

Ipsos has been listed on the Paris Stock Exchange since 1999 and generated global revenues of € 1.712,4 million (2 274 M$) in 2013.

With offices in 87 countries, Ipsos delivers insightful expertise across six research specializations: advertising, customer loyalty, marketing, media, public affairs research, and survey management.

Ipsos researchers assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test advertising and study audience responses to various media and they measure public opinion around the globe.

Visit www.ipsos.com to learn more about Ipsos’ offerings and capabilities.

Statement issued by Mari Harris, Ipsos Public Affairs Director, 4 February 2016

Footnote:

[1] This study formed part of the Khayabus (Omnibus) study undertaken every six months by Ipsos, however, the sample in the NMBM was increased to deliver credible regional results and minimize the margin of error.