Solidarity demands new statistics after census disaster

23 August 2024

Solidarity believes that an early national census in 2026 is the only way to intervene in the catastrophe that the 2022 census brought about.

Despite earlier denials regarding it, Statistics South Africa (SSA) admitted that large parts of its 2022 census data are indeed unusable. This includes statistics on employment rates, income as well as birth and death rates.

According to Connie Mulder, Head of the Solidarity Research Institute (SRI), the situation with the census could still lead to a major crisis.

“This is shocking, however, not unexpected. Shortly after the census, we raised our concern about the huge undercount of more than 30% and the obvious methodological flaws. These fears came true.

“The value of the census is now extremely limited and raises bigger questions about SSA and specifically also the Statistician-General’s competence,” said Mulder.

Solidarity is seriously concerned about how these flawed figures will distort important projections made over 10 years.

Contrary to what the Statistics Act (No. 6 of 1999) prescribes, South Africa conducts a census survey every 10 years rather than every five years, and the next census will not take place until 2032.

“It is painfully clear that we will have to do another census in 2026,” said Mulder.

“We cannot work from 2022’s flawed foundation. It would be like building towers on a cement slab that is deeply cracked.

“There now exists great concern about the allocations that the National Treasury has to make based on this census data. If the one core product on which all other projections are modelled is so badly full of holes, doubts arise about all other SSA projections.”

Solidarity believes this mismanagement amounts to gross negligence, especially given the nearly R2,3 billion it cost the taxpayer.

According to Mulder, this certainly also warrants a call on President Cyril Ramaphosa to remove the Statistician-General, Risenga Maluleke, from his job due to his incompetence, as the census of 2022 is unsound and not fit for purpose.

Issued by Connie Mulder, Spokesperson, Solidarity Research Institute, 23 August 2024