"Mbeki's Zimbabwe 'solution': Good for Mugabe, Bad for democracy"
The crisis in Zimbabwe deepens by the day. The detention of MDC leaders - including Tendai Biti who faces the death penalty for "subversion" - as well as the murder of over 70 MDC supporters has taken the reign of terror to a new level. President Mugabe has openly said that he will "go to war" to maintain power.
President Mbeki is now reportedly pushing for a cancellation of the presidential run-off election in Zimbabwe scheduled for next Friday, in favour of the establishment of a "Government of National Unity" (GNU).
His rationale for the cancellation of the election is, apparently, that "the run-off might exacerbate the situation." It is ironic that Mbeki has until now justified his inaction on Zimbabwe by saying that Zimbabweans themselves must determine their future through the ballot box.
The world therefore expected him, as the official mediator in Zimbabwe , to do what was necessary to ensure conditions conducive to a free and fair election.
Instead he allowed Mugabe to run an unprecedented intimidation campaign and force a presidential run-off election when he should actually have conceded defeat. With the possibility that Mugabe could lose the run-off despite his threats of war, Mbeki now wants to help him avoid an election altogether.
Even worse, reports suggest that the Mbeki plan involves the creation of a Zimbabwean GNU is one in which Mugabe would effectively retain power, with Morgan Tsvangirai, the leader of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change, as his junior partner.
A GNU sounds deceptively pragmatic and sensible. I oppose it because it will vindicate Mugabe's reign of terror. It will enable him to stay in power. It will be the final death knell for democracy in Zimbabwe . This so-called "solution" will actually exacerbate Zimbabwe 's problems -- and spread the contagion far beyond.
In fact, the rot started in Kenya earlier this year where a government of national unity was negotiated with the help of international mediators, following an election reportedly rigged in favour of the incumbent President Mwai Kibaki. This deal enabled a rejected President to cling to power, with his successful challenger in the more junior position of Prime Minister.
This deal seems to have set a precedent whereby African leaders can manipulate (or ignore) the outcomes of elections they lose. If power cannot change hands through the ballot box, democracy is dead.
Developments in Kenya and Zimbabwe also put a different light on Jacob Zuma's recent statements that the ANC has been ordained by God to govern South Africa and that it will rule "until Jesus comes back". A man who holds these views is also unlikely to move quietly into an opposition role if he loses an election.
All these developments merely entrench the view, held by so many, that Africa is not ready for democracy. If Mugabe gets his way, it will entrench the suspicion that the outcome of elections in Africa is generally determined by the nastiest, most brutal bully who can use the security forces as instruments of terror.
If President Mbeki does indeed facilitate this outcome, it will by a Pyrrhic victory. The unintended consequences will define his legacy for decades to come.
Mbeki and the African Union have one last chance to do the right thing by Zimbabwe and other emerging democracies in Africa . They have the tools to do so in terms of the African Union's own Constitutive Act which gives them the right to intervene in a member state in grave circumstances that include war crimes, genocide and crimes against humanity. At least two of these conditions apply in Zimbabwe.
They must use this power of intervention, but not in a way that will finally subvert the will of the Zimbabwean people. Instead they have a bounden duty to ensure the opposite.
This may require a postponement of the 27 June poll - in order to move swiftly and decisively to create conditions for a proper election, the new date of which must be announced simultaneously with the postponement of next week's poll. A new election must take place within three months, at the latest.
The African Union must immediately take the necessary steps to prepare for this election in Zimbabwe. With the material and logistical backing of the United Nations, the AU must deploy a peace-building force in Zimbabwe. Their mandate must be to end the terror and create conditions for an election in which it will be safe for Zimbabweans to elect their government.
Needless to say, Mugabe will not accept this, but he must not be given a choice. The time has come for the choice to be made by the voters of Zimbabwe . The time has come for the AU and SADC to show the world that we can be trusted with democracy.
The South African government, in particular, must use its position on the AU Assembly of Heads of State and Government to help ensure that the AU peace-building force is deployed.
Instead of persisting with inappropriate and unworkable 'solutions', that actually destroy prospects for democracy, Mbeki must urgently build a united front - through SADC and the AU - to force Mugabe's thugs to retreat and create conditions for an election that will reflect the will of the Zimbabwean people. If African leaders fail to do so, they will expose their organisations for what they increasingly seem to be - Unions for the protection and preservation of the power of former liberation leaders. The worst fears of the Afro-pessimists will be confirmed.
This article by Helen Zille first appeared in South Africa Today, a weekly letter from the Democratic Alliance leader, June 20 2008
