SPEECH BY FORMER PRESIDENT F W DE KLERK TO THE ROYAL COMMONWEALTH SOCIETY, LONDON, MAY 12 2009

THE RECENT ELECTION AND THE COMING ZUMA PRESIDENCY

South Africa has much to celebrate: despite a few minor administrative hitches our elections on 22 April were as free and fair as those of any other constitutional democracy.  Last Saturday, the Chief Justice - representing our independent judiciary and the sovereignty of the Constitution, inaugurated Mr Jacob Zuma as South Africa's fourth democratically elected president.   The transfer of power from one president to the next took place peacefully and constitutionally and was covered by our free and sometimes very critical media.

Democrats will welcome the somewhat stronger showing of opposition parties in the recent election.  The Democratic Alliance's victory in the Western Cape Province is important because it breaks the ANC's monopoly of power at the provincial level.  It is also significant that, for the first time since 1994, the ANC's share of the vote - although still a massive 65.9% - declined by a few percentage points.  These are positive developments because democracy flourishes best when there is vigorous multiparty competition.  Democracts will also welcome the fact that the ruling party, by a whisker, no longer has the two-thirds majority that it requires to change the Constitution. 

Disappointingly, voters continued to cast their votes overwhelmingly according to race and not according to political principle or their satisfaction with the performance of government.  This means that the DA - despite its energetic and competent leader Helen Zille - will find it difficult to increase its support much above the 20% represented by the white, coloured and Asian minorities.

The best hope for change lies in the newly established Congress of the People (COPE) which broke away from the ANC last year in reaction to the ANC's decision to fire President Mbeki and to purge his supporters.  They managed to reduce ANC support by 6% or 7% - which the ANC partially regained by attracting votes away from the Zulu-based Inkatha Freedom Party of veteran politician Mangosuthu Buthelezi.  The other change was that coloured voters in the Western Cape switched their votes from the ANC to the Democratic Alliance

Nevertheless, the election showed that our young democracy is resilient and adds to the many positive achievements of the past 15 years.

• Until last year we had experienced 14 years of uninterrupted economic growth facilitated by sensible macro-economic policies that the ANC government had implemented - despite its socialist rhetoric.  Like the rest of the world, we are now wrestling with the fall-out from the global financial crisis.  Although we expect that our economy will shrink by 1% this year - we are confident that we will be less severely affected than most countries.
• Our GDP - measured on a purchasing power parity basis is about US$ 600 billion - about the same size as the Argentine and Polish economies.
• This gives us by far the largest economy in Africa.  With only 6.5% of the population of sub-Saharan Africa, we produce a third of its gross economic product and generate two-thirds of its electricity.
• Our position in Africa - together with our internationally applauded democratic credentials - help us to punch well above our weight in the international arena.  We are a member of the G20.  We play a leading and constructive role in Africa and we enjoy good relations with other leading emerging economies.  
• There are reported to be more foreign embassies in Pretoria than in any other capital in the world with the exception of Washington.
• Our sportsmen and women have attained new heights in international competition:  we are the rugby world champions - again;  we are the top one-day international team in world cricket; since 1940 South Africans have won more golf major championships than any other country except the United States.  We will be hosting the Soccer World Cup in 2010.
• Our country has become an increasingly popular tourist destination - and tourism now contributes more than 8% to our GNP - more than gold.  Some of our restaurants and hotels are counted among the best in the world in international surveys.
• Our car and truck industry also contributes about 8% of GNP - with exports of the highest quality Mercedes-Benz and BMWs to countries all over the world.  Last year we produced 600 000 motor vehicles. 
• According to a recent international survey three South African cities - Cape Town, Johannesburg and Port Elizabeth - are regarded as being among the best 100 cities in the world in which to live.
• More importantly, life is getting better for more and more South Africans.  Since 1994 millions of black South Africans have joined the middle class, enlarging our consumer market and contributing to societal stability.
• However, it is not only the black middle class that has benefited from the new South Africa.  Since 1994 the government has built more that 3 million houses for disadvantaged communities.  It has also extended water and electricity services to more than 70% of all our households - and thirteen million children and old-age pensioners now receive state allowances.

These are all positive aspects of the new South Africa.  But there are also the well-known negatives:

• We have the highest number of HIV infected people in the world.  Although we are at last addressing the problem and are making antiretroviral drugs available on a massive scale, we started too late - primarily because of the AIDS denialism of former President Thabo Mbeki;
• Almost 50% of South Africans live in poverty.  We remain one of the most unequal societies in the world - despite the ANC's commitment to the promotion of equality and despite the fact that the achievement of equality is one of the founding values in our Constitution.  Our GINI coefficient - which measures inequality in societies - has remained virtually constant at .66 since 1994.
• One of the main causes of poverty and inequality is our very high and persistent unemployment rate.  At least 30% of black South Africans are unemployed or have given up looking for work.  Unemployment, in turn, has its roots in the dismal failure of our education system to prepare entrants for the labour market;  in the effects of global competition;  and in our rigid labour laws.  All this has been aggravated by the influx across our porous borders of uncounted millions of economic refugees from other African countries.
• Unemployment and poverty are, in turn, among the main causes of the unacceptable levels of violent crime that we experience.

So, we find ourselves after fifteen years of constitutional democracy balanced between justifiable pride over our significant achievements and deep concern over our unresolved problems.

The question that engages us all is how the incoming government of Mr Jacob Zuma will affect this balance:  will he continue to build on the constitutional and economic progress that we have achieved?  Will he be able to address the enormous societal problems that continue to confront us?

There are no easy or immediate answers.  The reality is that no-one knows what a leader will be like until he becomes the leader.  This is particularly the case in Africa:  unbelievably now, many people, particularly whites, were full of trepidation when Nelson Mandela became our first President.  By the time he stepped down he had won the affection and admiration of great majorities of all our population groups.  The same was true of President Kenyatta in Kenya.   For the first fifteen years of his rule it seemed that President Robert Mugabe would follow the same pattern - until he began to encounter serious electoral challenges seven years ago. After that, there has been a precipitous decline into tyranny and economic and social disintegration.  The utter bankruptcy of the Mugabe regime was symbolized for me by a hundred trillion dollar Zimbabwean banknote that a friend recently showed me.

The reality is that Mr Zuma will not be acceding to the presidency in the happiest of circumstances.

Until last month he was facing serious fraud charges related to South Africa's ongoing arms procurement scandal.  For several years he had been conducting desperate rearguard actions in the courts to fend off his impending prosecution.  All this took place against the backdrop of a titanic struggle between Zuma's supporters and those of President Mbeki that reached its climax at the ANC's Polokwane conference in December 2007.  Zuma won a decisive victory - and in essence, together with his allies, took over the control of the ANC and the actual seat of power.  After several months of skirmishing, President Mbeki was fired following charges that he had misused state agencies in his campaign against Zuma.  Kgalema Motlanthe was installed as caretaker president and presided in that capacity with considerable dignity and grace until last month's election.

Unfortunately, the manner in which the fraud charges against Mr Zuma were dropped raised disquieting questions regarding the continuing independence and integrity of our National Prosecuting Authority.  Together with other recent development it raises concerns that, in future, the ruling party and not independent prosecutors will decide who will be and who will not be prosecuted.  

Mr Zuma has also made a number of statements that have raised doubts regarding his commitment to the independence of our courts - and particularly of our Constitutional Court.  Referring to the Chief Justice he is reported to have said ‘I don't think we should have people who are almost like God in a democracy...Why? - Are they not human beings?'  He also criticized the Deputy Chief Justice, Mr Dikgang Moseneke, and said that the Judicial Service Commission should review the status of the Constitutional Court.

Mr Zuma's remarks must be seen in the context of previous ANC moves to dilute the independence of the courts and an ANC resolution at the Polokwane conference in December 2007 to introduce new legislation to transform the judiciary.

Zuma and other prominent ANC leaders have since then repeatedly emphasized that they will respect the Constitution and will do nothing to undermine the courts.  However, just before the election the cabinet approved a constitutional amendment that will empower the national government to interfere at will in the affairs of municipalities.  Supporters claim that the legislation will enable the government to ensure effective service delivery in South Africa's many dysfunctional municipalities.  Critics fear that the real purpose may be to give government effective power to overrule duly elected local authorities in municipalities run by the opposition - and in the municipalities that opposition parties may win in the 2011 elections.  The proposed Constitutional amendment could be the first major test of the Zuma presidency.

Another cause of concern relates to the influence that will be brought to bear on government policy by the ANC's alliance partners, the South African Communist Party and the trade union federation COSATU.  There is little doubt that Mr Zuma could have not secured victory over President Mbeki at the Polokwane conference without their support.  There is also little doubt that they expect to be fully rewarded for their loyalty.   COSATU and the ANC make no secret of their ambitions.  They want to reconfigure their alliance with the ANC by establishing an Alliance Political Committee which would oversee all important alliance policy decisions and that would, in effect, be controlled by the SACP and COSATU.

The SACP believes that reconfiguration of the alliance would help it to move to what it has proclaimed as its ‘Mid-Term Vision' of establishing worker hegemony over the state and society.  It and COSATU have been vociferously critical of the mainstream macro-economic policies that have been implemented for the past ten years under the stewardship of veteran finance minister Trevor Manuel.  They have made no secret of their demand for more interventionist and populist approaches.

At the same time moderates in the ANC leadership - like Treasurer General Matthews Phosa - supported by Zuma himself - have repeatedly assured domestic and foreign investors that there will be no change to the existing macro-economic policies.  Although the ANC prides itself on being a broad church, there is no way that it will be able to straddle this divide:  either it will retain its present economic policies, in which case COSATU and the SACP will be seriously alienated;  or it will lurch to the left - in which foreign and domestic businessmen will refuse to invest in the economy.  There is also a possibility that the ANC may try to satisfy both sides and end up satisfying no-one.

A great deal will depend on the role that Jacob Zuma will play.

President Zuma has no pretensions to being an intellectual of the Mbeki genre.  He is pragmatic and does not seem to have any ideological preconceptions. He is a good listener - and much will depend on the quality of the advisers that he selects.  Also, unlike Mbeki, he is charismatic and a man of the people.  He makes no secret of the pride he takes in his Zulu heritage and enjoys performing in traditional Zulu regalia, dancing and singing at public gatherings.  All this is perplexing to Western observers but it goes down well with the great majority of black South Africans.

Zuma's close identification with his traditional culture is one of the main sources of his political success - because at the end of the day South Africa is an African - and not a Western - country.  However, South Africa operates within a global context in which the rules are not set by Africa, but by a global consensus on how states should manage their economic and constitutional affairs.  That consensus requires constitutionalism and the rule of law; uncorrupt administration;  free markets;  and responsible macro-economic policies.

This, in essence, is the dilemma that President Zuma will face: he will have to straddle the divide between the populist demands of his left-wing alliance partners and the macro-economic dictates of the global economy;  between the collectivist traditions of Africa and the individualist freedom and constitutionalism-based values of the mainstream international community.

The announcement of his Cabinet on Sunday provides some valuable pointers regarding the direction that the Zuma presidency will take:

• The most significant development is that veteran Finance Minister Trevor Manuel has been appointed Minister in the Presidency responsible for the National Planning Commission.  In effect, this will enhance Manuel's role and gives him the status almost of a Prime Minister.  It is accordingly likely that the Zuma administration will continue the responsible macro-economic policies that Manuel implemented while he was Minister of Finance.
• Trevor Manuel will be replaced as Finance Minister by Pravin Gordhan, who, in his previous post, made the SA Revenue Service by far the most effective organ in the state.
• The fact that President Zuma has appointed a second minister in the presidency to monitor and evaluate government performance indicates his seriousness in improving service delivery and in holding his ministers and public servants to account.
• The appointment of leading businessman, Tokyo Sexwale, to the post of Minister of Human Settlements (housing) will help to strengthen the moderates in the Cabinet and counter-balance the influence of the SA Communist Party and COSATU.
• Perhaps the greatest surprise, was President Zuma's decision to appoint Pieter Mulder as Deputy Minister of Agriculture.  Mulder is the leader of the right-wing Afrikaner Freedom Front Plus that garnered 150 000 votes in the election.  His appointment might mean that the Zuma administration will adopt a responsible approach to land reform and will seek to engage Afrikaans farmers in the development of a workable approach to this sensitive issues.
• Critics point to the fact that with 34 ministers and numerous deputy ministers, the new cabinet is excessively large, unwieldy and expensive.  However, the newly created posts may have helped President Zuma to balance the factions within the ruling alliance and to repay the many and varied supporters who helped him win the presidency.

The next five years will deeply affect the future of South Africa for the coming century.  They will determine whether the constitutional democracy that we established with so much optimism fifteen years ago will continue to flourish;  whether our economy will continue to grow;  and whether we will be able to address the serious societal challenges that confront us.  Our future success will, in turn, be a major factor in determining the future success of the rest of sub-Saharan Africa.

Personally, I am optimistic that Jacob Zuma will make the right choices - and that he will confound the prophets of doom - as has happened so often in South Africa's history.  He has many of the qualities that will be necessary to deal with the difficult challenges that will confront him during his presidency.  He has started well with the appointment of his cabinet. 

But by the same token, South Africans - and the international community - would be well advised to watch him carefully - particularly with regard to any initiative that might undermine our constitution or the independence of our courts.  The price of liberty is, and will always remain, eternal vigilance. 

Source: FW de Klerk Foundation

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