In the early days of the ANC breakaway the consensus of the South African commentariat was that the ruling party had little to fear. The prominent political analyst Steven Friedman was quoted by Sapa on October 15 as saying "I'm quite sceptical that this party is really going to get the kind of attraction to give anyone in the ANC sleepless nights."
There are reports emerging that the ruling party has taken fright at the challenge posed by the Congress of the People (COPE). Friedman now says the ANC is panicking. Responding to a report that the ANC National Working Committee had decided to bring the election date forward by a month he stated, "I do not have polls to back me up" he told Business Day earlier this week, "but what I am hearing is that people at Luthuli House are terrified of COPE."
The breakaway has not had an easy time of it in the national press recently, going through a number of names before settling on COPE (see logo). But, despite those difficulties, Mbhazima Shilowa and Terror Lekota have generally managed to project an image of serious-mindedness even as the ANC leadership has been running around like a five-headed chicken.
Earlier this week Shilowa reportedly told the foreign media that COPE had registered 65,000 members in the Free State and 50,000 in the Eastern Cape. 80% of ANC branches in the former Transkei had also apparently defected to the new organisation. "Similar patterns are being reported by all co-ordinators across the length and breadth of our country," he said.
If these figures are correct it would mean that the ruling party is haemorrhaging supporters and branches to the new party. (ANC membership peaked at 621,237 before the organisation's 52nd national conference in Polokwane last year.) This would give the ANC good reason to panic, and this week there have been a number of other signs that it is beginning to do so.
The ANC has brought a great deal of negative publicity down upon itself by failing to rein in its supporters, who have disrupted COPE meetings and threatened its leadership. But its national leadership is also responding to the challenge by indulging in spoiling tactics, albeit of a different type.
Earlier this week the ANC served a letter of demand on COPE "objecting to the use and registration of the name, CONGRESS OF THE PEOPLE." Now that COPE's lawyers have rejected this, the ANC has announced that is going to "proceed with a High Court application seeking an urgent interdict to prevent the use of this name."
The ANC must know that it is skating on thin ice both legally and historically. Raymond Suttner, a former ANC NEC member who is now a historian of the liberation movement, wrote this week that "No one has a patent on SA's freedom struggle. Moreover, the ANC's proprietary statements on this matter run counter to the conception of the congress itself, which was devised as a mass campaign that led to the creation of the Freedom Charter."
Another sign of the current insecurity within the ANC was the petty decision to withdraw Lekota's police bodyguards. Earlier this week the ANC National Working Committee issued a statement condemning "all forms of political intolerance, intimidation or violence." However, soon thereafter Safety and Security Minister, Nathi Mthethwa - a member of the NWC - decided that Lekota should no longer receive police protection, despite the threats that have been made against the former defence minister's life.
Briefing journalists yesterday (see here) government spokesman Themba Maseko was asked to confirm that Mthethwa had "acted against the advice of the acting national Police Commissioner, Tim Williams, who's understood to have indicated to the Minister that it would not be wise to withdraw the security from Lekota until such time as a fresh threat analysis had been concluded?" Maseko was unable to confirm or deny this, but he did acknowledge that "a request was sent to the Minister and the Minister according to reports this morning has decided not to extend the security."
Another panicky tactical response to the challenges that the ANC is currently facing is the puffed up complaint that has been lodged with the public protector (see here) against the acting head of the National Prosecuting Authority, Moketedi Mpshe, for some fairly innocuous remarks he made to City Press. What the purpose this is supposed to serve is not clear, other than to try and shore up Jacob Zuma's position in the run up to the NPA's appeal against the Nicholson Judgement.
Business Day reported this week that, "It is understood that some NEC members have revived a lobby to ditch Zuma as the face of the ANC's election campaign in favour of President Kgalema Motlanthe. Their argument is seemingly gaining momentum among ANC dissidents - those who opposed the dismissal of former president Thabo Mbeki - and from moderates in the NEC."
While such a move is highly unlikely to succeed - and probably inadvisable given that Zuma is the ANC's main electoral asset - such talk breeds internal dissension and distrust. On Sunday the ANC was forced to issue a statement denying a City Press report that it had ordered the SABC to scale down its coverage of President Kgalema Motlanthe and stop "projecting him as being so presidential."
In a curious way the ANC is in a similar situation to that of Thabo Mbeki post the 2005 Zuma rebellion (but pre-Polokwane). They are facing a new and unexpected challenge to their power and authority. Yet, given their inbuilt advantages they are probably in a position to see off the challenge. That is provided they respond calmly and coherently. The signs this week have not been good in this regard.
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