All that matters in South Africa now is who will win the dangerous dog-fight taking place in the ANC-led Alliance. The presumption is that it will be the ANC Youth League under its president, Julius Malema, but it is not clear yet what Malema's support is, and why his opponents seem to be so helpless.
The Sunday Times reported yesterday that "Julius Malema is on the ropes, with supporters of his ANCYL openly booing him in Limpopo and President Jacob Zuma saying he is likely to face an internal disciplinary hearing." In a separate report though, the newspaper said the Limpopo conference elected Malema's choice, Frans Moswana, as provincial chairman, ousting the incumbent Lehlogonolo Masoga. Also that the people booing Malema were Masoga's supporters.
Malema, it seems, always wins. He does precisely as he pleases, as if the ANCYL calls the tune. This does not necessarily mean he has a mass power base. Throughout history politicians cast in the dictator mould have shown that - for starters - it is sufficient to put together a pack of attack dogs to take over a conference. That's where many ugly movements begin: in conferences, party meetings, gatherings of delegates - the easily manipulated institutions.
Over the weekend, at last, Zuma publicly rebuked Malema for his various provocations, including his fawning visit to Mugabe. Zuma indicated Malema would be disciplined. If so, Malema will just bide his time.
Cosatu is not disclosing its attack hand yet. It appears to have a longer-range strategy (possibly in partnership with the SACP). Just as Malema recruits energetically in the black townships, so Cosatu will do the same, but in "working class communities," a term it uses in the vain hope of avoiding a turf war with the ANC. Obviously, there could be violence when the two forces meet.
Cosatu says it has plans for "rolling mass action" at the Zuma government's "economic fault lines," but it may find that by the time it gets its act together, Malema's populism will have accelerated the pace of conflict so effectively that the dog-fight is over.