Drought: Urgent action needed to avoid economic and humanitarian disaster

14 January 2015

Note to editor: This was a statement delivered by the DA Shadow Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, Annette Steyn MP, DA Chief Whip, John Steenhuisen MP and DA Shadow Deputy Minister of Health, Dr Heinrich Volmink MP. The Presentation and Oversight Report are available upon clicking n the respective link.

The drought currently being faced by South Africa has reached crisis point. Provincial dam levels are down in all provinces, standing at 57% of capacity as of last week, compared to 82% for the same time last year. This represents a major economic and humanitarian crisis as food security is placed under threat and the livelihood of those in the agricultural sector is placed in jeopardy. This is not a crisis limited to commercial farming, but extends to each and every South African and the poor in particular.

Over the past two months, I have conducted an extensive oversight tour to gauge the true extent of the drought, travelling over 4000km to visit drought stricken communities across South Africa. Similar observations could be made in almost all communities visited and speak of a government that has failed to adequately respond to the crisis.

As South Africans already suffer from an economy under strain, the drought will only serve to make matters worse and will have a direct impact on unemployment. StatsSA values agriculture’s direct contribution to gross domestic product (GDP) at between 3 and 4% per year – however, various studies have shown that the indirect effect of agriculture (taking into account forward and backward linkages) is closer to 25%. 

An important feature of the industry is that it creates employment in rural and deep rural areas, and in job-starved regions where there is often little other economic opportunity.

But the most recent GDP figures – for Quarter 3 of 2015 – reveal that the agricultural sector contracted by more than 12% quarter on quarter, largely because of the drought’s effects. Moreover, the sector has contracted 16.2% year-on-year.

Both commercial and subsistence farmers have been affected. Many farmers have been forced to reduce herd sizes as a last resort - some farmers in the Northern Cape by up to 80%. This follows a government notice in November urging South African cattle, sheep and goat farmers to cut the size of their herds. One emerging farmer in KwaZulu-Natal lost a quarter of his small flock due to malnutrition and thirst. He had received no assistance from the government, and no advice on how to cope with the drought. 

As drought conditions persist for a number of consecutive years, the ability of farmers to cope financially has been entirely eroded. Capital reserves are being depleted, and this creates the scenario where credit is used to finance production costs for the coming production year. 

The agricultural sector is already highly indebted, with the total debt averaging about R117 billion in November 2015, an increase of about 14% from the previous year. Those who are unable to access additional bridging finance – small and emerging farmers in particular – will not have the resources to weather the season. 

Further to this, community members in drought stricken areas have been forced to pay bribes to officials to have water delivered. In Hluhluwe in KwaZulu-Natal, the community receives water tankers only once every three weeks. They have received little to no assistance from government, whose sole contribution has been to hand out assessment forms while the local officials continue to deny that they are experiencing a crisis.

Food crops will be affected across the board. When I visited Hoopstad and Bothaville in the Free State, less than 3% of the maize had been planted, and the planting season has now passed. This is the least number of hectares planted since 1926. 

Grain SA said that South Africa imported about 750 000 tonnes of maize to meet the country’s needs. The 2015/16 season will see this increased to 5 million tons of maize. It is expected that we will also have to import about 10 million tons of grain, rice and soya into the country.  This would put a heavy burden on our harbour and transport infrastructure while the decline in the Rand over December will increase the cost of this exercise greatly. 

Rising food prices, particularly of maize and wheat, which are the staple diet of many South Africans, pose serious problems for the urban and rural poor. The drought will put pressure on food prices, with hikes likely in everything from maize and grains, to meat, poultry and dairy products. 

There is usually a lag of about three to four months before increases in prices are seen on retail shelves for foods such as mealie meal and cereals. For items such as meat and dairy, it would take about nine months. But rising prices have already been seen in some foods as early as April and May 2015, with consumer price inflation for items such as bread and cereals increasing by 4.8% year on year. According to some economists, food prices could increase by up to 10% in 2016 – more than double the inflation rate.

As subsistence crops fail, and food prices increase, there will be a dramatic increase in malnutrition with the poor suffering the most. Direct effects such as marasmus and kwashiorkor in children will be exacerbated by indirect effect in terms of increased susceptibility to disease, especially for immune-compromised patients such as people living with HIV/AIDS.

Yet the government response to the drought has been inept at best. Several provinces have been declared disaster areas, but the President has so far failed to declare the crisis a national disaster. Instead the President laughed off the matter in response to an oral question posed to him in the National Assembly in November 2015. 

Government relief in provinces like Limpopo and KwaZulu-Natal has often been conditional on farmers making certain purchases of farming implements or necessities from approved vendors – as is stated in the 2015/2016 Draft Drought Intervention document published by the KwaZulu-Natal government on 21 November 2015. This document also places the onus of transporting relief on the farmers themselves.

It is clear that urgent intervention is needed to mitigate this already dire situation. Subsequent to the oversight visit, the DA has a number of proposals that we believe should be taken by government to address the issue:

The DA calls on the government to:

1. In accordance with the National Disaster Management Act (NDMA), call for declaration of a national disaster.

2. Implement the provisions made in the amended NDMA by calling on the South African National Defence Force, South African Police Service and any other organ of state to assist the disaster management structures.

3. Urge the Speaker of the National Assembly to give heed to our letter submitted to her requesting the establishment of an ad hoc committee to deal with the drought.

4. The committee will urgently need to be briefed by the inter-ministerial (IMC) task team specifically charged to deal with drought alleviation. As elected public representatives, the National Assembly needs to be appraised of the progress the IMC has made in assessing the effects on the drought particularly on the livelihoods of so many South Africans.

5. A national task team comprising of private sector, experts and government must be established to coordinate a disaster alleviation plan. The current ad-hoc method of delivering feed and water in an uncoordinated way is not feasible.

Statement issued by Annette Steyn MP, DA Shadow Minister of Agriculture, Forestry & Fisheries, 14 January 2016