I have now looked at all possible political scenarios for South Africa's next election. My conclusion comes with a sinking feeling. Jacob Gezeyihlekisa Zuma will get a second term as the ANC president, thus as the president of the republic of South Africa. This realisation depresses me.

I've been listening a lot to Kris Kristofferson's song, To Beat The Devil to cheer myself up. Kris himself was feeling beaten down when he wrote the song, and entered a bar to take shelter from the cold and hunger. There was only an old man sited at the bar who ended singing a song that starts like this:

"If you waste your time a-talkin' to the people who don't listen,

"To the things that you are sayin', who do you think's gonna hear.

"And if you should die explainin' how the things that they complain about,

"Are things they could be changin', who do you think's gonna care?"

On Tuesday night I attended a Wolpe Trust memorial lecture by Joel Netshitenzhe, otherwise known as the Tsar of ANC policy making. Joel said a mouthful with a stern quiet voice. Minister Naledi Pandor chaired the session and alluded to the fact that it was as a ‘reunion of old progressive comrades'. The audience was equally mixed in every measure (racial, gender, age, etc). The night promised much and delivered a lot. 

This lecture was part of the things that made me realise that Jacob Zuma would get his second term. Although the main speaker had much to say in critique of the current leadership and the state of our State (title of the lecture) he clearly said it as insider, what perhaps would be termed constructive critique. This showed the degree of Joel's commitment to the ANC, which is noble.

From Joel's critique technique I understood that the ANC was again adopting the master stroke it managed to ward off the storm that became Cope after Polokwane. They have internalised the critique of its opponents and now are propagating it as the mission of the ANC renewal. This is actually a very astute political move. Its brilliance though is limited by the worm of corruption that is currently eating at the centre of the ANC - the rot that started from the head.

The tone of Joel was almost what I heard read earlier on from the so called leadership that can save the ANC website, which calls itself Forces of Change. It says it represent the following values among other things:

• Quality, credibility and integrity amongst the people of SOUTH AFRICA, AFRICA AND THE WORLD.
• Understanding of core organisational values and principles.
• Generational mix.
• Thorough understanding of the business community.
• Thorough understanding of the international struggles and how the ANC should respond.
• Deeper understanding of gender and women's struggles.
• Deeper understanding and appreciation of the struggles of the youth.
• Appreciation and deeper understanding of the Military Veterans of the ANC.
• Thorough and deeper understanding of challenges facing the ANC in Provinces.
• Appreciation of the kind of society South Africa and the world has become.
• Innovation, creativity and forward thinking on new solutions for the future.
• Thorough and deeper understanding of the theory of the revolution and the vitality of the Freedom Charter in the struggle for total emancipation.
• Fair balance of militancy/radicalism versus moderation and pragmatism.
• Collective appreciation of political education as a tool to rebuild and renew the ANC.
• Non-corruptibility in their individual and private lives.
• Non-factionalist approach to ANC politics.
• Uniting and patient leaders who will bring everyone together.
• Not compromised individuals who will feel indebted to anyone.
• Ability to genuinely appeal to all spectrum of society.
• In other words, we will speak your language and then act as we please after, they say. 

My final thoughts about the lecture was to wish Joel, like Thabo Mbeki, at the OR Tambo lecture at Fort Hare university recently, had taken more responsibility for the policy failures of their administration most of which were aborted midterm before they could be properly implemented or take effect.

The new fed in government policy now is NDP (National Development Plan). Joel, who is the member of its panel, touched on it in his lecture. The previous week I had attended a roundtable organised by the CPLO (Catholic Parliamentary Liaison Office) briefing by another member of the NDP professor Vivien Taylor who was very vivacious in presenting it.

Indeed the NDP is an impressive document, especially its Diagnostic Report, about the failures of our previous approaches and its suggestions on how to mitigate and fix them. I would urge all political parties not to write their coming Manifestos without familiarising themselves with at least that section of the NDP.

Impressive as the NDP may be, so was the RDP, GEAR, and ASGISA at some stage, but they failed, largely because they were never given opportunity to prove their worth. Naturally people can't help but feel wary about the NDP, which might explain the lackadaisical attitude towards it. But that attitude does not do just to the competent and independent analysis of this document.

My major concern for the NDP would be on the effectiveness of its monitoring wing that is suppose to hold government into account for implementing its resolutions or suggestions. Should that fail we would surely be ripe for another policy proposal that will compound our policy fatigue as a nation of policy peddlers. We talk without much thinking & responsible action, the Managing Director of Old Mutual, Crispin Sonn alluded to at the Wolpe memorial lecture.

This is the reason I came out of that memorial lecture morose, and the devil, as he had done before, suggested it might be time to throw in the towel. Because nobody is willing to do anything to really change the status but rather prefer going around in circles, recycling failures of one administration to the other. Personally I'm not interested in political astuteness, I came into politics because I thought there was a way I could make a difference, no matter how little it may be.

In recent weeks I saw off three highly skilled friends with engineering and architectural skills desperately needed in South Africa. They left for different countries: Ghana, Zambia and Ivory Coast. We joked about how most African states only learn after they had first hit rock bottom. Since these other countries were on the mend while South Africa on the break, perhaps it be wise to sit the few coming years out side the country, and make a lot of money in the process, they said.

This thinking is very tempting even though I know it is the attitude most professional Zimbabweans regret most. They thought they could leave politics and concentrate on their professional careers, only to discover they had no country to practise their professions after the catastrophic political turmoil of that country.

It is even more tempting for me with a Scottish wife who insists we need to give our children better chance in life by giving them good public (we can't afford private) educational foundation by settling in Glasgow during their foundation phase. They say the devil always come in a reasonable voice and paves the avenues to his confinement with good intentions. Who knows?

But for now I choose against reason. I choose to hope (Lord knows we are running lean on that) for the future of my country, politically and otherwise, hence my hand is still on the deck. I sing in answer with Kris, hoping that the government would not abuse our trust for too long and push us to far:

And you still can hear me singin' to the people who don't listen,

To the things that I am sayin', prayin' someone's gonna hear.

And I guess I'll die explaining how the things that they complain about,

Are things they could be changin', hopin' someone's gonna care.

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