Undecided Voters May Deliver Surprise Results in Metros

The ANC is certain of a win in tomorrow's election in four of the eight metropolitan councils (Buffalo City, Mangaung, Ekurhuleni and Johannesburg), but undecided voters may force the party to enter into coalitions in up to three other metros. In two of these, Tshwane and Nelson Mandela Bay, the race is too close to call based on the opinion poll results, and in the third, eThekwini, the ANC may need to get other parties on board to govern the city.

Ipsos Markinor's latest election poll predicts that the DA will win in Cape Town, but that the undecided voters may force them to go into a coalition to govern the city.

These eight metropolitan areas in South Africa are focal points in tomorrow's Local Government elections. Although considerable campaigning was done in the rural areas, most political parties concentrated their efforts on the metropolitan areas.

An analysis was done of the possible outcome of tomorrow's election in the metros. These findings are based on a study done by Ipsos Markinor from the middle of April to the beginning of May. Respondents were randomly selected to represent South Africans of voting age, i.e. 18+. These results were then further filtered by those who are registered to vote, have a green bar-coded ID document, want to vote and expressed the opinion that he or she is likely to vote in the Local Government election. The results are thus taking into account the possible voter turnout.

The question is asked as "If there were Local Government elections tomorrow, which political party or organisation would you vote for?" Respondents are then handed a ballot paper and asked to draw a cross next to their party of choice. This ballot paper contains the names, logos and acronyms of the biggest political parties in the country (as seen in previous surveys). There is also space to write in another party name or other comments. The respondents are also permitted to spoil their ballot, which further simulates an actual election. Respondents are then required to place their completed ballot sheets in an envelope and hand them back to the interviewer, which ensures respondent anonymity. The results that follow are based on this ballot procedure.

Please note that this is not a predicted outcome, but a reflection of people who were certain of who they would vote for when the poll was done. In all metro areas there are substantial proportions of voters who want to and are likely to vote indicating that they still have to make up their minds before they vote. Also take into account that the margin of error per metro is considerably higher than that of the national results - thus these results should be regarded and used with caution.

Statement issued by Mari Harris Director & Political Analyst Ipsos-Markinor, May 17 2011

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