COSATU General Secretary, Zwelinzima Vavi's, address to the North West Provincial Shop Stewards Council held on 17th October 2014
SCENARIOS: The Dialectics of the Dream and the Nightmare
The dream in the nightmare and the nightmare in the dream
It has been 20 years since we gained our freedom and democracy. It is almost a year since we lost Nelson Mandela, one of our foremost founding fathers of the new South Africa, to the ages. COSATU is still celebrating its 20th anniversary in 2016 which will also coincide with the 60th anniversary of the Freedom Charter.
Since returning to work in April, I have found myself vacillating between elation and hope on the one hand, and despair and pessimism on the other hand about what the next five years hold as we look ahead to the next 20 years. On the worst days, I have found myself tossing and turning in the wee hours of the morning unable to sleep. On the best days, I am filled with enormous optimism about what is (still) possible for our beloved country our Federation.
What follows here is the result of these pre-dawn reflections. There are two scenarios I have imagined about what is possible in our Federation and country over the first five of the next 20 years. Whether we achieve scenario A (the dream of 1994) or we continue the almost irreversible slide towards scenario B (the nightmare) will depend on what the good men and women of our country do next.
I have spent the last few days talking to many comrades about how we avoid the dream turning into a nightmare.
Scenario 1:
1. COSATU CEC honestly engages with the CC Secretariat Report and after much soul searching, adopts a new mindset and breaks from factionalism and divisiveness.
1. COSATU CC fully absorbs the implications of the CC report and after the initial shock, engages robustly but constructively to genuinely work to rebuild the power of the Federation and its affiliates.
2. After the CC there is an agreed programme to address the challenges we face head on, and concrete measures are agreed and implemented to close social distance, conduct listening campaigns, lead and implement a massive and vibrant recruitment campaign in all sectors, education and training is fully resourced and put back at the centre and a comprehensive action framework is developed across all Provinces, to engage and mobilise around central demands to improve the lives of workers and poor communities.
3. The Alliance engages with the COSATU 11th National Congress resolution on a National Agreement and agrees to restructure the Alliance accordingly so that it is no longer just an elections tool but a tool for comprehensive and fundamental restructuring of society. Such an agreement includes the nature and objectives of a second phase of radical economic transformation - a new progressive incomes policy is put in place, a National Minimum Wage linked to Minimum Living Level is introduced, a creative long term programme of quality labour intensive projects are launched, covering strengthening infrastructure, but also on beneficiation to fully exploit natural resources linked to our aggressively implemented IPAP, the delivery of services and community mobilisation and empowerment go hand in hand and produce tangible results, a common campaign to tackle all forms of crime is launched. The dominant narrative changes from a denial of the depth of the crisis and the paralysis it creates, to one of promoting integrity and a driven commitment towards fundamental transformation.
4. The CEC decides to launch "operation clean-up COSATU image" and undertakes forensic audits in all unions where allegations of embezzlement have been made, and all leaders, including those currently facing allegations of financial mismanagement or corruption are given a speedy opportunity to account for resources and come clean on the extent to which corruption has corroded worker control and transparency. Those who are found to have stolen money or abused their power are subjected to fair but timeous processes and if found guilty are appropriately punished by a united CEC and union NECs that are united and determined to clean up the movement.
As part of leading by example, all Union leaders (NOBs and the POBs) agree to be subjected to life style audits. All those who are engaged in business are asked to choose between continuing serving workers' interests or serving their business interests.
5. The ANC too decides to clean up its image. The media carry stories about ANC leaders who have acted corruptly or who have abused their mandate are forced to resign by the ANC Integrity Committee.
6. The media carry stories about senior cabinet ministers who have been imprisoned for betraying their mandate and the trust of the people and who have pillaged the national account.
7. The President issues an unambiguous upbeat statement about the progress the state is making to reverse the culture of stealing, and the Treasury announces that SA is no longer losing 5% or between R25 to R30 billion every financial year to tender fraud.
8. The Public Works Department announces a clean audit after noting that R35 billion was once not accounted for, and that mechanisms are now in place to ensure it never happens again.
9. The Auditor General's report states that all Metros have received clean audits and that 75% of all municipalities have clean audits and set a target that every municipality shall have a clean audit by 2019.
10. In an act of faith in the public, the ANC insists that all of the outstanding forensic and anti-corruption reports including those shelved from previous Ministers, and from notorious trouble-spots including:
eThekwini Metro - Zodwa Manase forensic report gets released in full
Nelson Mandela Metro - the Kabuso and Pikoli forensic reports are released
Makana local municipality - Kabuso forensic report is released
The COGTA report conducted under the leadership of former Minister Sicelo Shiceka on corruption in North West municipalities is released
The forensic report on the KZN department of education is released
Those implicated in the recent reports about looting of funds dedicated to honour the memory of Nelson Mandela at Buffalo City Metro.
The investigation launched and cancelled on allegation of corruption in the KZN education department is relaunched.
etc
11. All those found to be involved or complicit in corrupt activities are removed, subject to a fair but speedy process and if found guilty will face the full weight of the law, and be no longer considered eligible or suitable to hold public office or positions in the ANC.
12. In 2015 the Government announces that e-tolls have been scrapped in Gauteng and will not be introduced anywhere else, and that all other toll gates fees will be reduced by half and then phased out with the introduction of a more equitable and progressive fuel taxation policy.
13. The ANC led alliance campaigns together in 2016 with the solid support of issue based and broader progressive civil society organisations who are inspired by the introduction of a comprehensive social security system, NHI and a willingness to engage civil society on delivering to our people.
14. The media carry stories about how hospitals have turned a corner, of how mortality rates are falling, and the stigma of HIV is finally being diluted and overcome, and health management drastically improved at all levels through properly resourced facilities.
15. Millions more houses are built in complete contradiction to apartheid spatial planning, near places of work and social facilities close to clean, efficient mushrooming industrial centres.
16. A fully integrated Public Transport System is put in place, and the Road Accident Fund reports that billions have been saved from fatal and crippling accidents through more social responsibility education, changing the driving culture, and making highways and walkways safer especially for the working class.
17. The IPAP 3 and NGP job drivers are refocused (manufacturing, mining, agriculture, green economy and infrastructure) to create thousands of decent jobs and are complemented by a training strategy that empowers workers.
18. Unemployment begins to fall dramatically and there are reports that millions have been liberated from poverty and inequalities, and are no longer on the margins of society.
19. More universities and tertiary institutions are opened and made more accessible and responsive to the needs of working class students of all ages, as more schools are declared fully functional with laboratories, libraries, clean toilets and running water and well trained and dedicated educators.
20. South Africa becomes a hub for intellectual and practical know how, capable of responding to the needs of the Continent and beyond.
21. Crime is significantly reduced year on year and people start to feel safe on the streets and in their homes, and have confidence that the authorities are protecting their interests, and as a consequence national cohesion and unity increases, including relations between different national communities.
22. COSATU merges with other federations and they aggressively drive mergers of their affiliates to create super unions and cartels, but strictly under the principles of independence, internal democracy, workers control and accountability.
23. StatsSA announces that Union membership has reached two thirds of all workers in the formal sector and that in other sectors, collective organisation is gaining ground.
24. Reliance on external financing is reduced through revenues created by beneficiation and other industrial policy measures, and SA starts to play a more progressive role in creating fair international trade agreements with like-minded governments that successfully challenge neo-liberalism.
25. Regional and continental cooperation are increased around common projects to industrialise the Continent taking full advantage of the mineral and other resources, alleviate poverty, develop infrastructure, maintain the peace, and ensure that the peoples of Africa can live and work harmoniously.
26. South Africa reassumes the mantel of its international moral compass, and inspires other governments and peoples to take a progressive way forward, by serving as an example to others.
27. Treasury announces that there has been a tremendous increase in tax collection and a dramatic decrease in tax evasion and corruption and that state coffers are in sound position to allow for more socially based investment and opportunities.
28. Tourism figures climb following sustained international coverage about SAs economic, political and social dynamism and all are encouraged to celebrate the including through mass concerts for mbhaqanga, sicathamiya and gospel......and every other type of popular cultural outlets. COSATU unions relaunch the cultural desks of COSATU and unions, and organise their own festivals to promote workers' culture. They dedicate this to the memory of those they have helped to promote such as Sipho Gumede, Jabu Khanyile and others.
29. The ANC wins the 2019 elections with 70%, the DA is cut to size and those who left the ANC to support UDM and EFF return to the fold. The base is now a mobilised constituency that is no longer passive recipients of "service delivery" but have taken their destiny in their own hands to ensure that delivery is maintained and the promises of the manifesto are realised.
Scenario 2:
2. Current Situation Continues to Worsen
The daily headlines of corruption within the union movement continue to emerge, and a divided COSATU cannot address the issues and is hampered by putting factional interests first. The consequence of this is that COSATU is unable to intervene in any union's so-called internal affairs as it is continuously shown the middle finger.
1. The unconstitutional purges of whistle blowers, dissenters and those considered rivals increases, and unions face splits and political divisions that spin out of control, much to the joy of the bourgeoisie and other rapacious exploiters.
2. COSATU is unable to speak at one on any matter and is hopelessly divided and open to manipulation by political forces not committed to a working class perspective.
3. More workers become disillusioned and either migrate to other unions or drop out of unions altogether and buy protection from private capital services or through gangsterism, and a new generation of workers increasing follow this route away from collectivism.
4. Tensions continue to paralyse the federation and eventually lead to 50-50 split which is so ill tempered that unions cannot work with each other even in the same sectors, and within unions there are unresolved and bitter conflicts making them inactive.
5. Government pushes ahead with implementing a neo-liberal programme involving the acceleration of commodification, privatization and outsourcing.
6. The labour market proposals intrinsic to the NDP are implemented leading to a chronic dilution of worker rights, and increased so-called flexibility in favour of the bosses, and the eventual reversal of trade union gains.
7. NEDLAC degenerates into an irrelevant talk shop as government uses is power in parliament to get everything it wants, and disregards inputs from institutions that it no longer trusts.
8. The Public Protector decides to resign as she feels her office has been completely undermined and personalised and faces rejection by vested interests and hostile class forces in Parliament and in Government more generally. She is replaced by Pansy Tlakula and rumours are rife that the chairperson of the SABC will be appointed the new IEC chairperson.
9. Unsubstantiated accusations of any dissenters being agents of imperialism becomes a norm, and the public discourse becomes littered with innuendo, the ruination of reputations and a sycophantic culture of defending the leadership regardless of mistakes committed.
10. More scandals are in the media linked to the trillion Rands spent on nuclear energy, accompanied by news that there has been chronic miscalculations and the price has doubled to two trillion, and suspicious of misappropriate abound (as it has happened in the case of the arms deal, Gautrain, Medupi and Inkandla).
11. NUMSA is dismissed from the Federation for allegedly refusing to adhere to the founding principle of one union one industry, despite the preponderance of cross sectoral organising of other unions, and the organised section of the working class is split.
12. Increasingly unions outside of the Federation are seen as the radical independent centre, beyond class compromise, and become a militant force for change that attracts large numbers of workers tired of corruption, lack of servicing, and what appear to be behind the scenes compromised deals.
13. This puts pressure on other unions to also leave the Federation, leading to the formalisation of a split.
14. The Federation decisively shifts from a workers control ethos to one where the real decisions on the future of the Federation are conducted behind closed doors and involve forces not accountable to the workers' movement.
15. There being no change in the Alliance means that it holds increasingly inconsequential summits that are marked by self-congratulation and where behind the scenes factionalism isolates those at the grass roots still further.
16. The use of the media for factional purposes increases, and those with money dominate the discourse, and contribute to decreased social activism and awareness through an unashamed class biased media via the SABC, eNCA & ANN7.
17. The masses including organised workers retreat from active participation in politics still further, and cynicism about the possibilities of change manifests itself in a lowering of class consciousness and solidarity, and deepens a crisis of representation across the country.
18. StatsSA issue a report in July 2015 reporting unemployment has reached 40%, precarious jobs worsen to 54% and youth unemployment reaches 60%.
19. ANC factions move into full gear for a destructive contest in the 2015 NGC as setting a scene for a narrow leadership contest in 2017. Newspapers are full of negative campaigning from all sides - with all hidden scandals out of the closet. This further damages the ANC's standing as an agent for change as the real concerns of our people about unemployment and related socioeconomic conditions take a backseat.
20. In 2016 the ANC loses Nelson Mandela Metro, Tshwane and Johannesburg to DA which together with EFF makes further inroads across SA except in KZN.
21. In 2019 ANC surrenders Gauteng province to a coalition led by DA. ANC support takes a dive in all provinces except KZN, and even there it is riven by division based on conflicts that have not been resolved but rather swept under the carpet.
22. With around 54% support remaining, Government legitimacy is reduced resulting in a degeneration of the public discourse and rampant bickering and irrelevant point scoring with EFF and DA that further reduces the credibility of National and Provincial government and its standing in the eyes of the people.
23. Government fearing losing power, does not introspect but blames counter revolutionaries, American agents etc. for the loss of support. A police state becomes a reality leading to many people fearing that the government is invading their right to privacy. Everybody has a second secret phone number and we are back in the days of the apartheid security police.
24. Analysing the election results reveal that apathy, discontent and resignation from politics has led to more people not registering or voting or believing that change is possible.
25. COSATUs credibility continues to take a pounding and analysts write about the similarities between the demise of COSATU and TUCSA and the ‘taming' of a once militant unionism.
26. Social media is full of negative comments about how irrelevant COSATU has become and how Unions are nothing but troughs for leaders to feed at, at the expense of workers.
27. Workers leave COSATU in droves and its membership falls from the current 2.2 million to 500 000 dominated by public sector unions and where class compromise becomes a norm.
28. A new Federation battles to organise what is left in a continuously shrinking manufacture (in 1994 it contributed 25% to GDP now down to 11%); mining and industrial sector, and fails to organise vulnerable and informal sector workers.
29. Statistics show that the share of workers' wages in the GDP has further declined to 39% and this is made worse by the unaffordability of services, transport and other essentials.
30. Newspaper reports about increased rates of profits in banking and retail sectors are celebrated by exploiters and big business, and boast how they are staffed 100% by casual flexible and uncomplaining workers.
31. A vibrant workers movement remains a distant memory for trade union veterans who wonder how this situation was allowed to come into being, and how a dream was turned into a nightmare.
32. Those who were once seen as fearless spokespersons are now taken as defenders of wrongs, lame ducks, and apologists and are accused everywhere of being opportunists guarding their narrow interests for good paying jobs like the rest of the elite.
Issued by COSATU, October 20 2014
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