DA on track to grow nationally and be biggest party in Western Cape
With just over four weeks until Election Day, it is possible to draw some preliminary conclusions about the 2009 general election.
The National Picture
The DA is set to grow its support from 2004 levels and should be the second largest party by some distance.
Cope has failed to live up to the media hype surrounding its launch, primarily because of its inability to get an election campaign off the ground, a lack of financial resources, and infighting.
An ANC two-thirds majority is not a forgone conclusion, but it is not impossible.
It is possible that the DA will be the only party currently in parliament to increase the level of its support, since none of the IFP, UDM, ID or ACDP shows any signs of significant growth, and all may find that they go backwards in this election.
The Western Cape
The DA is set to be the biggest party in the Western Cape, with over 40% of the vote.
The ANC will hold on to second place but will be significantly diminished because of the split with Cope.
Cope will come in third, and may poll more support among coloured voters than the ID.
The ID will come fourth, its potential gains among brown voters being absorbed by Cope.
The Mitchells Plein by-election
The Mitchells Plein by-election (Ward 79) on Wednesday 25 March will be the best indicator of trends among coloured voters in the metro available before the election, and certainly better than the results of any opinion survey that may be released in the next four weeks.
The results in 2004 and 2006 were as follows:
|
Party |
2004 |
2006 |
2009 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
NNP |
33.1 |
0 |
|
|
DA |
21.6 |
37.8 |
|
|
ANC |
19.8 |
12.2 |
|
|
ID |
16 |
38.7 |
|
|
ACDP |
4.1 |
3.8 |
|
|
Other |
5.4 |
7.4 |
|
We are confident that we will grow our support from 2006 levels. Our target is to win an absolute majority (50%) in ward 79. That would represent an increase of over 100% since 2004.
Opinion polls
Market research companies use election periods as a means of getting publicity for their research products. They should be read carefully and with understanding, and cannot be summarized in a headline.
The following needs to be borne in mind when considering the results of opinion surveys:
- The surveys results are seldom less than 6 weeks old, and very often much older, and so present an out-of-date snapshot of what may be a fast-moving picture.
- The surveys either discount undecided voters (by excluding them) or distribute them proportionally. The whole point of an election campaign is to compete for undecided voters, and the way in which they break on Election Day does much to determine the result.
- Surveys cannot predict turnout, and differential turnout as between the various parties is the other factor which does much to determine the result.
Conclusion
The DA began this campaign with the objective of increasing our support nationally and winning enough votes in the Western Cape to be the largest party in the province, pursuant to forming a government there. We are on track to achieve these objectives.
In 2011, the split in the ANC will put the ANC's majority in many councils at risk, and our objective will be to win enough support to bring the ANC below 50% in as many councils as possible.
Statement issued by Democratic Alliance CEO, Ryan Coetzee MP, March 23 2009
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