In his speech at the opening of the ANC's Policy Conference on 26 June, President Zuma said that "the economic power relations of the apartheid era have in the main remained intact. The ownership of the economy is still primarily in the hands of white males as it has always been."
But is this so? I am not an economist - but have made the following rough estimates of who actually controls the economy.
Firstly, ownership of shares on the JSE is often - and quite incorrectly - conflated with ownership and control of the entire economy. In fact, the JSE probably represents only about 20% of total economic activity. According to a study by Trevor Chandler and Associates in October 2011 only 54% of the shares on the JSE are available to South African investors. Of the remainder, 33% are foreign-owned, 11% are cross-held shares and 2% are owned by the government. Of the 54% of shares available to South Africans, 28% (3.4 % of GDP) are owned directly or indirectly by black South Africans and the remaining 72% (7.5% of GDP) by whites.
It is estimated that Small and Medium Enterprises (SME) and the informal sector contribute 35% of GDP and include between 1.5 and 2 million enterprises, almost 80% of which are owned by previously disadvantaged individuals in the informal sector. The informal sector is generally estimated to contribute between 5% and 10% to GDP. Black ownership or part ownership of larger firms has probably increased as a result of BBBEE. It would thus not be unreasonable to assume that black ownership of the SME and informal sector at a minimum of 10% of GDP.
A sizeable segment of the economy is also owned and controlled by foreign multi-national companies - apart from their 33% ownership of shares on the JSE (6.6% of GDP) . If one considers only the 6% - 7% contribution to GDP of the foreign-owned automobile industry and the contribution of at least 3.5% to GDP by foreign-owned oil companies, foreign-owned interests probably own or control at least 17% of the economy.
Then there is the contribution of government to economic activity. According to this year's budget, government expenditure will account for29.4% of GDP. This includes provision for a deficit of 5,2% of our GDP of R3,3 trillion rand. This total amount - with the possible exception of about 1% of GDP that is transferred to the multiracial government of the Western Cape - is controlled by black South Africans. To this figure we must add the 8% of GDP represented by State Owned Enterprises- which are also under black control.