Zimbabwe's political instability exaggerated: The challenges we face in Zimbabwe can really be reduced to just two words: self interest.

I think our local newspapers here in Zimbabwe should all have the same health warning required for tobacco products that sounds as follows; Danger: reading this newspaper and accepting everything you read blindly is harmful to your health.

I was quite astounded last week to read that a leader of one of the political parties here was quoted warning Zimbabweans of the violence that will inevitably come as we get closer to the elections next year. In my view, that is downright irresponsible in the case of the leader and downright sensational in the case of the newspaper. When our newspapers dramatise issues and continually give prominence to the worst case scenarios when it comes to political developments it is inevitable that Zimbabweans in general will begin to expect the worst and live up to that expectation. The saying that "be careful what you wish for in case you get it" surely applies.

It is important for my patient readers to note that at no point am I saying that Zimbabwe does not have some severe political and governance problems nor am I downplaying the adversity that most are currently facing on the economic front.  However, when  a divergence of opinions  are reported as "fights" and loud arguments as "war" surely that only serves to create an environment where readers will involuntarily begin to expect the worst outcomes and thereby ignore those things that may confirm otherwise. I can understand now why politicians world over continue to cry for balanced reporting. Unfortunately sensational reporting can actually be the source of instability.

For those of us who want to create a future in Zimbabwe, it is quite important that we deliberately attempt to create a positive attitude about the future and this will hopefully become contagious with time. However one cannot be naïve to the difficulties we are facing nor is one endorsing the misdemeanours of those currently in power.

In my opinion, the challenges we face in Zimbabwe can really be reduced to just two words: self interest.

I think that those who want to hold onto the past are a few terribly frightened men who really have not been doing things by the book and face economic and political loss if things were to change. Their reaction is to take all they can now and try and stall any change. There are also those who clearly understand that their thinking will not fit within a new democratic space and will therefore be rendered irrelevant and powerless in any new power structure, these are many. These are not a threat for they are known to quickly change  their allegiance when the tide turns.

There are those who have tasted power in the GNU and must carve for themselves a place in the future and remain lukewarm to accelerated change and thus afford themselves more time to consolidate their interests. These are our worst enemies dressed in sheep's clothing.

More worrying are those who have been disenfranchised who are outside the country and wish Zimbabwe the worst no matter what. These unfortunately include powerful forces that control the international flow of capital and hold the key to future economic progress.  These are mainly whites and hate Mugabe to the core and are most unlikely to change that view. Unfortunately they matter when it comes to the economic revival of Zimbabwe.

They are those who seek change at any cost and might not have calculated or contemplated what the alternative will be. These count the majority and they anxiously wait for the vote. While they are those convinced that any political change in Zimbabwe is an imperialist plot and are diehards ZANU(PF). These to me are not many but their numbers are at times conveniently enlarged. I conjecture that the truth shall set them free.

Finally there are some of us who want a absolute overhaul of the system now but are quite worried of what may take its place.

As a result, like in any emerging democracy, we have a cocktail of all these multiple dispositions that we must accommodate and unfortunately they have a final effect of slowing down progress. In the old days such differences were sorted out through wars but man has become more civilised and we must bear the pain of some sort of negotiated gradual change. There is nothing wrong with that. In fact I would rather have a government of national unity than a polarised political environment that is likely to be unstable. The caveat being that we must get better management of the country's resources and also get rid of the deadwood. The international community need to understand that sanctions have ceased to serve any constructive purpose but to stifle growth and reduce the economic opportunity space for the ordinary Zimbabwean.

In my opinion the parties to our GNU do not have an easy task at all but I think it is clear in everyone minds that free and fair elections,  the scariest solution to those resistant to change, are really the only lasting "solution" or are they?

Why I ask is because it is most likely that Zimbabweans will vote to protest against ZANU(PF) and not necessarily to endorse the MDC. This is an inevitable consequence of our history given that political activism in Zimbabwe was constrained and therefore allowing only a few contestants to power. A precedent to this is the fact that we sit today with the same debility throughout Africa where those who deposed the colonialist have not necessarily been our best. Although the MDC may then have power, it may not necessarily lead to Zimbabwe achieving its optimal potential because the party is gaining legitimacy from being the challenger to ZANU(PF) and not necessarily for its competence in governing. That, we still have to see.

I estimate that we will only begin to experience true democracy after the first term of government of the MDC because during that first term, I expect more political parties to emerge as they take advantage of a free political environment with the potential of increasing the gene pool of political participants and leadership.

In the mean time the challenge is; how do we balance competing interest without throwing the baby out with the bath water? How do we resolve the competing interest of many to get Zimbabwe on the optimal economic trajectory? How do get Zimbabweans themselves at least begin to talk positive about their country and their own future?

On that issue I have applied my mind and request my readers to be patient for my next instalment: Moving Zimbabwe forward despite the politics.

Vince Musewe is an independent economist currently in Harare and you may contact him on [email protected]

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