Zimbabwe`s voters` roll: An analysis - RAU - POLITICS

KEY STATISTICS FROM THE JUNE 2013 VOTERS' ROLL

Governance Unit, Research & Advocacy Unit [RAU]

2 July 2013

Background

The Research and Advocacy Unit, RAU, is in the process of preparing a report on the state of the Voters' Roll as it was as of 1st June, 20131. However, with elections pending, the exigencies of the situation demand that the key statistics, on which the report will be based, are released without delay. These statistics are of importance to all those concerned to ensure that the elections are conducted freely and fairly and with regard to accepted democratic standards. The statistics appear in the Tables set out below, and, although appearing with little accompanying comment, in most instances speak for themselves.

Demographics

RAU's analysis of the Voters' Roll has been facilitated by the release of the preliminary results of the 2012 census. However, these results do not disclose the statistic of prime importance here, the number of adults in Zimbabwe as indicated by ages of 18 years or more. The analysis has thus proceeded on the basis of the percentages of the population in each age band supplied by Zimstat (the body which conducts the census) and used by Zimstat to calculate data in a 2012 survey on Health and Demographics in Zimbabwe.2 Zimstat is of the view that these percentages have not changed significantly in the few years since that survey, a view supported by the fact that the census shows that Zimbabwe has a low growth rate of 1.1%.3

The number of adults (and thus potentially eligible voters) in the 15 - 19 age band has been determined by calculating two-fifths of the total. It is believed that the number thus arrived at is

sufficiently accurate for present purposes.

Table 1 shows the number of adults in each age band according to the census, compared with the number of people in those age bands registered as voters. The final column shows the percentage of the adult population registered as voters.

Table 1: Comparison of 2012 Census and 2013 Voters' Roll by Age Band

Age Bands	Adult Population [Census 2012]	Voter Population [Voters' Roll June 2013]	Numerical Difference	% Registered
18 - 19	524,142	46,506	477,636	8.87%
20 - 24	1,154,669	225,787	928,882	19.55%
25 - 29	1,063,852	549,946	513,906	51.69%
30 - 34	830,324	881,149	-50,825	106.12%
35 - 39	674,638	899,362	-224,724	133.31%
40 - 44	467,057	759,189	-292,132	162.55%
45 - 49	363,267	48,0961	-117,694	132.40%
50 - 54	389,214	463,578	-74,364	119.11%
55 - 59	337,319	390,734	-53,415	115.84%
60 - 64	259,476	296,487	-37,011	114.26%
65 - 69	181,633	217,402	-35,769	119.69%
70 - 74	129,738	193,434	-63,696	149.10%
75 - 79	116,764	128,577	-11,813	110.12%
80 +	155,686	341,003	-185,317	219.03%
TOTALS	6,647,779	5,874,115	773,664	88.36%

The same data is represented below graphically for ease of understanding.

Figure 1: Comparison of 2012 Census and 2013 Voters' Roll by Age Band

IMAGE

In an ideal situation, all those who ought to be registered as voters are, and those who ought not to be, such as those deceased, are not. Although the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission took special steps to facilitate registration before the production of the June roll analysed here, and although nearly 300,000 deceased people were reported to have been removed from the roll in the months immediately preceding its compilation, Table 1 shows a large disjuncture between the ideal and the actual.

Very few adults aged under 30 years are registered. This is most marked in the 18 -19 age band, where only 8% are registered. In numerical terms, this means that a total of 1,920,424 people under the age of 30 ought to be registered as voters but are not.4 This is almost 29% of the total adult population of 6,647,779. Since there are unregistered people in the other age bands, the total percentage of the entire adult population who ought to be registered as voters but are not, is considerably higher than 29%.

The "under-registration" in these other age bands is concealed by "over-registration" in all of the age bands from 30 years and above. If the under-registration in these bands were to be taken into account, as it ought to be, the percentages of over-registration shown in Table 1 would increase. It should also be noted that the over-registration figures assume a 100% registration rate, which is improbable. The percentages of over-registration will increase in direct proportion to the extent that the registration rate is less than 100%.

Even without considering these factors, however, Table 1 indicates that the number of registered voters exceeds the population of Zimbabwe, in all age bands of 30 and above, by a considerable margin. This is most notable in the 40 - 44 age group (162%) and the 80+ age group (219%). In the former, some of the over-registration may be explained by people who are registered as voters, but were absent from the country during the census count, that is, are part of Zimbabwe's diaspora. The latter group most probably represents a large number of deceased persons who names still appear on the Voters' Roll. In numerical terms the "over-registration" of people aged 30+ against the actual population is 1,146,760.

This conclusion is further supported by the fact that there is an unlikely 116,195 people aged over 100 still on the roll.

Constituency "Over-Registration"

The problem of over-registration can also be considered by constituency. Table 2 indicates data for each province with the number of constituencies in each province where the number of

registered voters exceeds the population in those constituencies appearing under the last column heading.

Table 2: "Over Registration" of Voters as indicated by comparison with 2012 Census

Province	Total Population 2012 Census		Adult Population 2012 Census		June 2013 Voters' Roll		No of Constituencies with over-registration
Bulawayo	655,675		338,066		340,901		7		58%
Harare	2,0981,99		1,081,831		801,815		10		34%
Manicaland	1,755,000		904,878		736,799		4		15%
Mashonaland Central		1,129,449		582,344		504,416		5		28%
Mashonaland East		1,337,059		689,388		651,492		12		52%
Mashonaland West		1,449,938		747,588		621,404		4		18%
Masvingo		1,486,604		766,493		697,587		12		46%
Matabeleland North		743,871		383,540		359,786		5		38%
Matabeleland South		685,046		353,210		378,124		9		69%
Midlands		1,622,476		836,549		781,790		10		36%
TOTALS		12,963,317		6,683,886		5,874,114		78

Table 2 thus indicates that in 78 of Zimbabwe's 210 constituencies, the number of registered voters exceeds the total population there, as indicated by the census.

Delimitation

These problems of "over" and "under" registration obviously affect the delimitation of constituencies, since this is based upon the number of registered voters in each constituency.

Delimitation will be inaccurate to the extent that the voters' roll incorrectly reflects the number of voters in each constituency. Constituencies were last delimited ahead of the 2008 elections. There is to be no new delimitation ahead of the 2013 elections5 despite extensive demographic changes and changes to the Voters' Roll since 2008.

Both the old and the new constitution provide that the number of registered voters in each constituency should, as far as is possible, be equal, thus ensuring that no vote is of greater or less value than another in elections for the National Assembly. The number of registered voters should thus be spread evenly across the 210 constituencies, making a mean of 27,972 voters per constituency. Both constitutions, however, allow a variation of up to 20% more or less than the average number of voters registered in each constituency. The permissible (though undesirable) variation of 20% has the result that the maximum and minimum number of voters in each constituency should not exceed 33,566 registered voters per constituency or be less than 22,378.

The distribution of voters on the June 2013 roll is such that 23 constituencies exceed the permissible maximum and 17 are below the permissible minimum. Mbare has a voter population 154% greater than the mean (43,169 voters) and Chipinge East is has a voter population of only 46% of the mean (12,940 voters), as can be seen from Table 4 (The full data can be seen in Appendix 3).

Table 4: Number of constituencies with voter's numbers more or less than 20% constitutional limits for delimitation

Province	June 2013 Voters' Roll	No. of Constituencies above Maximum allowed [33566]	No. of Constituencies below Minimum allowed [22378]
Bulawayo	300,743	0	0
Harare	788,959	3	6
Manicaland	753,982	3	1
Mashonaland Central	537,708	4	0
Mashonaland East	664,141	4	2
Mashonaland West	609,732	1	0
Masvingo	727,697	4	4
Matabeleland North	362,150	2	1
Matabeleland South	351,954	2	1
Midlands	777,048	0	2
Totals:	5,874,114	23	17

Gender

The Voters' Roll shows no gender bias when considered as a whole. The picture may, however, change when gender is considered across each age band, though this analysis has yet to be undertaken. Table 5 shows that the gender distribution of voters almost exactly matches the divide according to the census, with women outnumbering men on both by almost identical percentages, roughly 48%:52%.

Table 5: Comparison of Gender between 2012 Census and 2013 Voters' Roll

	Census		Roll
Male	6234931	48.06%	2824458	48.08%
Female	6738877	51.94%	3050651	51.93%
Totals	12973808	100%	5874114	100%

Summary

The compilation of the Voters' Roll is always a moving target. Old voters die and new voters are added. The Voters' Roll can thus never meet the ideal indicated at the outset. However, the gap

between the ideal and the actual should be kept within reasonable limits if the electoral process is to be deemed fair and credible. The statistics presented here show:

1. That there are nearly 2 000 000 potential voters aged under 30 who are unregistered.

2. That there are well over 1 000 000 people on the roll who are either deceased or departed.

3. That 78 constituencies have more registered voters than inhabitants.

4. That 40 Constituencies deviate from the average number of voters per constituency by more than the permitted 20%.

Such statistics suggest that the gap between the ideal and the actual impinges upon the integrity of Zimbabwe's electoral process.

Governance Unit

Research & Advocacy Unit [RAU] 2nd July 2013

Footnotes:

1 Zimbabwe does not have a national voters' roll, but rather a roll for each of the 210 constituencies. The colloquial term is used for convenience.

2 Zimbabwe 2010-11 Demographic and Health Survey Key Findings Zimstat 2012. The numbers do not appear in the report but were supplied by a Zimstat official.

3 Census 2012: Preliminary Report Zimstat December 2012 p1.

4 This assumes that the vast majority of the adult population are citizens and thus entitled to register as voters.

Appendix 1

Demographic Break Down - Zimstat March 2012 Report.

Age Band	%
0 - 4	14.8
5 - 9	13.9
10 - 14	14.1
15 - 19	10.1
20 - 24	8.9
25 - 29	8.2
30 - 34	6.4
35 - 39	5.2
40 - 44	3.6
45 - 49	2.8
50 - 54	3.0
55 - 59	2.6
60 - 64	2.0
65 - 69	1.4
70 - 74	1.0
75 - 79	0.9
80+	1.2

Appendix 2

Number of constituencies with voter's numbers more or less than constitutional limits for delimitation

Province	Constituency	June 2013 Voters' Roll	Above Maximum allowed [33566]	Below Minimum allowed [22378]	Percentage of Mean
Bulawayo
Bulawayo	Bulawayo Central	27600	No	No	101
Bulawayo	Bulawayo East	24009	No	No	117
Bulawayo	Bulawayo South	21693	No	No	129
Bulawayo	Emakhandeni Entumbane	25400	No	No	110
Bulawayo	Lobengula	25008	No	No	112
Bulawayo	Luveve	24846	No	No	113
Bulawayo	Magwegwe	24024	No	No	116
Bulawayo	Makokoba	26195	No	No	107
Bulawayo	Nketa	24942	No	No	112
Bulawayo	Nkulumane	25899	No	No	108
Bulawayo	Pelandaba/Mpopoma	26505	No	No	106
Bulawayo	Pumula	24622	No	No	114
	Total:	300,743	0	0

***

Harare
Harare	Budiriro		30890		No		No		91
Harare	Chitungwiza North		27717		No		No		101
Harare	Chitungwiza South		28390		No		No		99
Harare	Dzivarasekwa		22971		No		No		122
Harare	Epworth		35703		Yes		No		78
Harare	Glen Norah		20113		No		Yes		139
Harare	Glenview North		23183		No		No		121
Harare	Glenview South		24954		No		No		112
Harare	Harare Central		27595		No		No		101
Harare	Harare East		33180		No		No		84
Harare	Harare North		28681		No		No		98
Harare	Harare South		36214		Yes		No		77
Harare	Harare West		26297		No		No		106
Harare	Hatfield		28166		No		No		99
Harare	Highfield East		27777		No		No		101
Harare	Highfield West		23182		No		No		121
Harare	Kambuzuma		22096		No		Yes		127
Harare	Kuwadzana		22659		No		No		123
Harare	Kuwadzana East		22037		No		Yes		127
Harare	Mabvuku Tafara		28265		No		No		99
Harare		Mbare		43169		Yes		No		65
Harare		Mount Pleasant		30100		No		No		93
Harare		Mufakose		19818		No		Yes		141
Harare		Southerton		21714		No		Yes		129
Harare		St Mary's		26898		No		No		104
Harare		Sunningdale		20416		No		Yes		137
Harare		Warren Park		30481		No		No		92
Harare		Zengeza East		28576		No		No		98
Harare		Zengeza West		27717		No		No		101
		Total:		788,959		3		6

***

Manicaland
Manicaland	Buhera Central	30972	No	No	90
Manicaland	Buhera North	27075	No	No	103
Manicaland	Buhera South	29638	No	No	94
Manicaland	Buhera West	30671	No	No	91
Manicaland	Chimanimani East	30466	No	No	92
Manicaland	Chimanimani West	28849	No	No	97
Manicaland	Chipinge Central	25370	No	No	110
Manicaland	Chipinge East	12940	No	Yes	216
Manicaland	Chipinge South	34880	Yes	No	80
Manicaland	Chipinge West	25178	No	No	111
Manicaland	Dangamvura Chikanga	30680	No	No	91
Manicaland	Headlands	27540	No	No	102
Manicaland	Makoni Central	25463	No	No	110
Manicaland	Makoni North	27439	No	No	102
Manicaland	Makoni South	31903	No	No	88
Manicaland	Makoni West	25520	No	No	110
Manicaland	Musikavanhu	26591	No	No	105
Manicaland	Mutare Central	25864	No	No	108
Manicaland	Mutare North	34391	Yes	No	81
Manicaland	Mutare South	33321	No	No	84
Manicaland	Mutare West	33877	Yes	No	83
Manicaland	Mutasa Central	28674	No	No	98
Manicaland	Mutasa North	32943	No	No	85
Manicaland	Mutasa South	29432	No	No	95
Manicaland	Nyanga North	32969	No	No	85
Manicaland	Nyanga South	31336	No	No	89
	Total:	753,982	3	1

***

Mashonaland Central
Mashonaland Central	Bindura North			37387		Yes		No	75
Mashonaland Central	Bindura South			30940		No		No	90
Mashonaland Central	Guruve North			34747		Yes		No	81
Mashonaland Central	Guruve South			31294		No		No	89
Mashonaland Central	Mazowe Central			25581		No		No	109
Mashonaland Central		Mazowe North	23828		No		No		117
Mashonaland Central		Mazowe South	26234		No		No		107
Mashonaland Central		Mazowe West	24138		No		No		116
Mashonaland Central		Mbire	33751		Yes		No		83
Mashonaland Central		Mount Darwin East	32704		No		No		86
Mashonaland Central		Mount Darwin North	30923		No		No		90
Mashonaland Central		Mount Darwin South	24243		No		No		115
Mashonaland Central		Mount Darwin West	31205		No		No		90
Mashonaland Central		Muzarabani North	27708		No		No		101
Mashonaland Central		Muzarabani South	26662		No		No		105
Mashonaland Central		Rushinga	36156		Yes		No		77
Mashonaland Central		Shamva North	30827		No		No		91
Mashonaland Central		Shamva South	29380		No		No		95
		Total:	537,708		4		0

***

Mashonaland East
Mashonaland East	Chikomba Central	24874	No	No	112
Mashonaland East	Chikomba East	21516	No	Yes	130
Mashonaland East	Chikomba West	35255	Yes	No	79
Mashonaland East	Goromonzi North	30380	No	No	92
Mashonaland East	Goromonzi South	36789	Yes	No	76
Mashonaland East	Goromonzi West	30086	No	No	93
Mashonaland East	Maramba Pfungwe	33658	Yes	No	83
Mashonaland East	Marondera Central	26888	No	No	104
Mashonaland East	Marondera East	28411	No	No	98
Mashonaland East	Marondera West	24572	No	No	114
Mashonaland East	Mudzi North	32516	No	No	86
Mashonaland East	Mudzi South	26037	No	No	107
Mashonaland East	Mudzi West	26987	No	No	104
Mashonaland East	Murewa North	28728	No	No	97
Mashonaland East	Murewa South	29367	No	No	95
Mashonaland East	Murewa West	29874	No	No	94
Mashonaland East	Mutoko East	26211	No	No	107
Mashonaland East	Mutoko North	29643	No	No	94
Mashonaland East	Mutoko South	30478	No	No	92
Mashonaland East	Seke	30575	No	No	91
Mashonaland East	Uzumba	33770	Yes	No	83
Mashonaland East	Wedza North	25872	No	No	108
Mashonaland East	Wedza South	21654	No	Yes	129
	Total:	664,141	4	2

***

Mashonaland West
Mashonaland West	Chakari	25815	No	No	108
Mashonaland West	Chegutu East	32000	No	No	87
Mashonaland West	Chegutu West	27259	No	No	103
Mashonaland West	Chinhoyi	27477	No	No	102
Mashonaland West	Hurungwe Central	26144	No	No	107
Mashonaland West	Hurungwe East	30125	No	No	93
Mashonaland West	Hurungwe North	24829	No	No	113
Mashonaland West	Hurungwe West	26261	No	No	107
Mashonaland West	Kadoma Central	25873	No	No	108
Mashonaland West	Kariba	34431	Yes	No	81
Mashonaland West	Magunje	26428	No	No	106
Mashonaland West	Makonde	29604	No	No	94
Mashonaland West	Mhangura	31361	No	No	89
Mashonaland West	Mhondoro Mubaira	29545	No	No	95
Mashonaland West	Mhondoro Ngezi	26760	No	No	105
Mashonaland West	Muzvezve	27846	No	No	100
Mashonaland West	Norton	27793	No	No	101
Mashonaland West	Sanyati	23584	No	No	119
Mashonaland West	Zvimba East	27493	No	No	102
Mashonaland West	Zvimba North	26471	No	No	106
Mashonaland West	Zvimba South	25931	No	No	108
Mashonaland West	Zvimba West	26702	No	No	105
	Total:	609,732	1	0

***

Masvingo
Masvingo		Bikita East	27954		No		No		100
Masvingo		Bikita South	29601		No		No		94
Masvingo		Bikita West	29357		No		No		95
Masvingo		Chiredzi East	26560		No		No		105
Masvingo		Chiredzi North	43298		Yes		No		65
Masvingo		Chiredzi South	26567		No		No		105
Masvingo		Chiredzi West	33657		Yes		No		83
Masvingo		Chivi Central	30057		No		No		93
Masvingo		Chivi North	25610		No		No		109
Masvingo		Chivi South	31751		No		No		88
Masvingo		Gutu Central	24344		No		No		115
Masvingo		Gutu East	23638		No		No		118
Masvingo		Gutu North	20533		No		Yes		136
Masvingo		Gutu South	24046		No		No		116
Masvingo		Gutu West	24755		No		No		113
Masvingo		Masvingo Central	26252		No		No		107
Masvingo		Masvingo North	23181		No		No		121
Masvingo		Masvingo South	27019		No		No		104
Masvingo		Masvingo Urban	35209		Yes		No		79
Masvingo	Masvingo West			22167		No		Yes		126
Masvingo	Mwenezi East			33278		No		No		84
Masvingo	Mwenezi West			41310		Yes		No		68
Masvingo	Zaka Central			26489		No		No		106
Masvingo	Zaka East			21645		No		Yes		129
Masvingo	Zaka North			28300		No		No		99
Masvingo	Zaka West			21119		No		Yes		132
	Total:			727,697		4		4

***

Matabeleland North
Matabeleland North	Binga North	32955	No	No	85
Matabeleland North	Binga South	29645	No	No	94
Matabeleland North	Bubi	34368	Yes	No	81
Matabeleland North	Hwange Central	22723	No	No	123
Matabeleland North	Hwange East	23517	No	No	119
Matabeleland North	Hwange West	25056	No	No	112
Matabeleland North	Lupane East	25364	No	No	110
Matabeleland North	Lupane West	21368	No	Yes	131
Matabeleland North	Nkayi North	25755	No	No	109
Matabeleland North	Nkayi South	27337	No	No	102
Matabeleland North	Tsholotsho North	27363	No	No	102
Matabeleland North	Tsholotsho South	29874	No	No	94
Matabeleland North	Umguza	36825	Yes	No	76
	Total:	362,150	2	1

***

Matabeleland South
Matabeleland South	Beitbridge East	30279	No	No	92
Matabeleland South	Beitbridge West	22552	No	No	124
Matabeleland South	Bulilima East	37330	Yes	No	75
Matabeleland South	Bulilima West	28043	No	No	100
Matabeleland South	Gwanda Central	24751	No	No	113
Matabeleland South	Gwanda North	22209	No	Yes	126
Matabeleland South	Gwanda South	23341	No	No	120
Matabeleland South	Insiza North	25516	No	No	110
Matabeleland South	Insiza South	24901	No	No	112
Matabeleland South	Mangwe	33963	Yes	No	82
Matabeleland South	Matobo North	23251	No	No	120
Matabeleland South	Matobo South	22487	No	No	124
Matabeleland South	Umzingwane	33331	No	No	84
	Total:	351,954	2	1

***

Midlands
Midlands	Chirumanzu	26189	No	No	107
Midlands	Chirumanzu Zibagwe	30936	No	No	90
Midlands	Chiwandura	33506	No	No	83
Midlands	Gokwe	23741	No	No	118
Midlands	Gokwe Chireya	28966	No	No	97
Midlands	Gokwe Gumunyu	23828	No	No	117
Midlands	Gokwe Kabuyuni	29434	No	No	95
Midlands	Gokwe Kana	29478	No	No	95
Midlands	Gokwe Mapfungautsi	32288	No	No	87
Midlands	Gokwe Nembudziya	28601	No	No	98
Midlands	Gokwe Sengwa	32650	No	No	86
Midlands	Gokwe Sesame	24947	No	No	112
Midlands	Gweru Urban	29060	No	No	96
Midlands	Kwekwe Central	23139	No	No	121
Midlands	Mberengwa East	22051	No	Yes	127
Midlands	Mberengwa North	28777	No	No	97
Midlands	Mberengwa South	28506	No	No	98
Midlands	Mberengwa West	22235	No	Yes	126
Midlands	Mbizo	24558	No	No	114
Midlands	Mkoba	30819	No	No	91
Midlands	Redcliff	29134	No	No	96
Midlands	Shurugwi North	27051	No	No	103
Midlands	Shurugwi South	23097	No	No	121
Midlands	Silobela	27808	No	No	101
Midlands	Vungu	26175	No	No	107
Midlands	Zhombe	31172	No	No	90
Midlands	Zvishavane Ngezi	29038	No	No	96
Midlands	Zvishavane Runde	29864	No	No
	Totals:	777,048	0	2

***

Overall Totals:

5,874,114

www.researchandadvocacyunit.org

Issued by The Research and Advocacy Unit [RAU], Harare, Zimbabwe, July 2 2013

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