Can President Jacob Zuma lose in Mangaung? Look at the numbers from the provincial nomination conferences and many would say his victory is certain. But actually Zuma has already lost, the result of the party leadership vote result notwithstanding. Even if he wins, he has lost so much in the process.

In the process, yes, because the way in which victory is achieved matters. Ethics matter. Decency matters. Some might find my simple expectation that ANC elections be held in a decent, organised manner, naive. Some might say the ANC under Zuma has become synonymous with chaos. I, however, refuse to expect so little, especially if success depends merely on a basic, rules-bound administrative process like registering the correct attendees at a party meeting and running an election. Other political parties manage it all the time.

But the ANC's internal nominations process is a shambles. Behaviour is even more appalling and violent than in the run-up to the 2007 Polokwane Conference. It is another symptom of the vacuous lack of leadership throughout the party for which Zuma sets the tone from the top. Yet another example occurred this week at the Limpopo nominations meeting. Zuma supporters were clearly in the minority. So they refused to register. Later they pelted the venue with rocks and bottles, and tried to storm it. Police intervened, preventing mob justice. Then the Zuma supporters left, calling for the (Zuma-controlled) NEC to "intervene".

Where was Zuma? Nowhere to be seen. Did he call on his supporters to behave in a way befitting the ANC's past, if not its current state? Of course not. That would have required leadership beyond populism, which clearly is a bridge too far for a man who prefers hedging his bets.

Zuma has already lost even if he were to get the most votes in Mangaung, because none but the dullest of loyalists could argue that his political or leadership stature is growing. One might raise ever so many examples of questionable conduct which could see the incumbent the first to be tried under the SACP's proposed law against impugning the dignity of the Office of the President. One might raise his incoherence when questioned about economics, his brinkmanship in dealing with the arms deal inquiry, and his anti-constitutional utterances when he lets his guard down - apparently thinking only traditional leaders and their communities can hear him. Or one might recall his unpresidential ducking and diving on personal legal issues.

Many more examples abound but to show why and how he has lost so much in stature, let's ask two common-sense questions about his reaction to the questions regarding his home at Nkandla.

Firstly, he could provide immediate clarity on the existence and extent of the alleged bond on the property by producing the bond. It is his choice to not provide that clarity. Why would that be? And, how was it possible for him to see all that construction taking place, and not bother to find out what it costs? To not then think: "this seems a bit much, let me just ask about the amount, because as the President, the buck stops with me."

A telling sign of Zuma's lost stature is the lack of reaction to his most recent obfuscations. There is no longer a societal expectation of excellence, vision, or even candid replies from this President. He is what he is. Apart from everything else he has lost, he has forfeited the compliment of high expectations.

Back to Mangaung: The official results show six provinces have nominated Zuma, and three have nominated Motlanthe. See table below.

* The allocated delegates figures include the 20 members of the PECs in each province.

Let there be no doubt: Zuma will win in Mangaung. But the official figures do not tell the full story. In two Zuma provinces, the veracity of results are contested. In North West, almost 130 branches are protesting the process that resulted in a truly unlikely result of Zuma trouncing Motlanthe by 162 votes to 14. Some might believe that result, but many who know North West politics well would not. Very severe allegations of extreme misconduct have surfaced from and about senior ANC leaders.

The Free State ANC, it would seem from the official results, is of one mind. Except of course that it isn't. For more than a year now, shootings, fisticuffs and intimidation have been commonplace in internal ANC provincial politics. Two factions of the party are currently waging a court battle to decide the balance of power before the Mangaung conference.

The court action stems from the Free State ANC's inability to hold a provincial conference acceptable to all its branches. Two competing conferences took place. The ANC recognised the one convened by the Zuma supporting premier, Ace Magashule. The provincial faction opposing Magashule/Zuma has now asked the Constitutional Court to declare Magashule's conference invalid, and to also invalidate the resulting provincial nominations conference, claiming its 324-0 win for Zuma is unrepresentative of the preference of ANC members in the Free State.

Quite apart from the merits of the case, the true indictment is the failure of the leadership to resolve what, in the end, should be a basic administrative issue. Surely, someone should have the moral authority and the drive to call these supposed comrades belonging to the same political party - a voluntary organisation of inherently like-minded people - together to solve their dispute like civilised adults. Failing all else, surely Zuma as ANC President could have done so? Unless, of course, he has lost that drive and moral authority.

Although Zuma will win the title of ANC President in Mangaung, I believe it will be a hollow victory. His own actions have contributed much to ensure that the substance, gravitas, respect and honour that title previously implied has been lost. If substance, gravitas, respect and honour matters, Zuma will be the loser in Mangaung, even as he wins the race to remain ANC President.

Jan-Jan Joubert is Beeld's political editor. This article was published with the assistance of the Friedrich-Naumann-Stiftung für die Freiheit (FNF). The views presented in the article are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of FNF.

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