President Zuma's approval level in metro areas shows a slow decline

In 2009, President Zuma's approval levels were good, averaging in the mid-fifties.  After a year of volatility during 2010, President Zuma's approval level for October/November 2011 stabilised at 48% of metro adults, compared with 45% in September in a year of greater stability in the readings.  This is according to a survey released today by TNS, South Africa's leading marketing and social insights company, which has been tracking approval levels of the incumbent President for many years.  The studies are each conducted amongst a sample of 2 000 SA adults from the seven major metropolitan areas of South Africa, interviewing them face-to-face in their homes, with a margin of error of under 2.5%.

The President's approval levels showed considerable volatility during 2010, dropping to 43% in February of that year from an end-2009 high of 58% - the best reading of his tenure so far.  May showed a partial recovery but the September figures showed a sharp decline with some recovery in November to 49%, a figure maintained in the first reading for 2011 and staying essentially the same at 48% for March 2011.  The September figure showed a drop to 45% with the net positive reading dropping to just 4%.   The October/ November reading at 48% is just on the overall average for the year.

* Net positives are given by subtracting those who feel he is NOT doing a good job from those who feel he IS doing a good job.

The March study was conducted in the first two weeks of March 2011, at the start of the local government elections campaigning. The latest reading was conducted in the last week of October and the first week in November.  This time period coincides with the President's reshuffle of the cabinet.

Who is more or less positive?

Unfortunately, political views in South Africa tend to have a strong correlation with race.  This is best illustrated in the following table:

* Net positives are given by subtracting those who feel he is NOT doing a good job from those who feel he IS doing a good job.

• The latest reading for blacks is effectively unchanged and has been very stable for the whole year.
• The figures for whites reflect an improvement to the best levels of the year.
• For coloureds, sentiment has shifted positively after a low reading in September.
• For Indians/Asians, there is more volatility but the latest reading is much better than the all-time low achieved in September.

Differences by area

There are usually strong regional differences in such ratings.  These are outlined below for 2010 and for 2011:

In the latest reading, there are small rises in most of Gauteng except Soweto where there is a notable drop.  Cape Town also shows a modest rise.  Durban shows a notable rise after a drop in September, whilst the Eastern Cape shows a decline.   Overall, Gauteng and Durban have the highest approval levels.  Cape Town has by far the poorest figures.

Other notable differences

In terms of age group, people aged 18 to 34 years are the most positive at 53% (52% in September) whilst those aged 60 years and more are the least positive at 40% (up from the 30% of September).   In terms of language group, the most positive are those whose home language is isiZulu at 68% (66% in September) and Tswana speakers (63%).  Of the other black language groups, the approval level sits at 55%.

Our take out

President Zuma's approval levels in metro areas, as measured in October/September, show that 2011 was largely a more stable year after the volatility of 2010 - but the overall average of 48% is still well down on the 55% of 2009 but marginally better than the average of 46% for 2010.  Younger people are still more favourably disposed to the President compared with other age groups. 

Technical note

All the studies were conducted amongst 2 000 adults (1260 blacks, 385 whites, 240 coloureds and 115 Indians/Asians) in the seven major metropolitan areas: it has a margin of error of under 2.5% for the results found for the total sample.  The studies use probability sampling techniques and are fully representative of the major metropolitan areas.  The studies were conducted by TNS South Africa as part of their ongoing research into current social and political issues and were funded by TNS. 

Statement issued by Neil Higgs, Senior Advisor and Head of innovation, TNS South Africa, December 21 2011

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