New Nationally Representative poll by the Rivonia Circle shows that an electoral breakthrough is possible in Election 2024.
Our work at the Rivonia Circle, through surveys and multiple forms of convening is pointing to the possibility of a new political future in South Africa where there will be no party that will obtain over 50% of the vote. This will lead to a coalition government at national level, for the first time since 1994. People have expressed to us a deep desire for people-centred and more community rooted politics.
A recent survey of 2 000 registered South African voters by the Rivonia Circle indicate that if an election were held today, the ANC's share of the vote would drop to 41% from the 57.5% it obtained in 2019 national election. The survey conducted with Ipsos, shows that the DA's share of the vote would continue to decline to 18% while the EFF would increase to 15%. Likely voter turnout is currently at around 65%.
With a sample size of 2000 registered voters, nationally representative of age, gender, race and province, the poll yielded a margin error of 2.2% at the 95% confidence interval.